It’s going to be Texas. They’ve been trying to get this done for years. It’s going to come down to the state relaxing it’s laws that prevent Tesla from selling to the consumer. if Rick Perry was on board for this then any conservative will be.
I thought about that immediately after I hit send at the Congressman's website, but I unfortunately didn't copy what was sent. Ultimately, I expressed my dismay that my local area wasn't pitched as a possibility. While it would pale as a location in comparison to Austin (or the likes), it should still be pitched either way. I was very specific to the area that it would be possible in addition (acres of land available; housing availability/affordability; shopping; etc.).
Tesla would be foolish to locate in Texas without a change in the law that prohibits them from selling there. Legislature won't meet again until January 2021, so best case start of construction of a Giga Texas would be April 2021, thus pushing production off into mid 2022.
What you say about 2021 is true IF you stretch the schedule to the very last day of 2021. But Elon said that deliveries would START in late 2021, not the manufacturing. To meet that timeline, manufacturing would have to begin well before the last day of the year 2021. In my estimation the latest manufacturing could start, if optimum conditions existed, would be the beginning of December 2021 to meet a 2021 possible delivery date. Keep in mind that it may have only taken 12 months for Tesla to build the Chinese plant, but China doesn't have the same regulatory hurdles that the US has when it comes to things like building a new manufacturing plant. Also, Tesla already had a successful plant up and running to model the China plant after, so they only needed to duplicate all the machinery and proven manufacturing processes the US plant had in place. For the Cyber Truck plant, because they're using the steel they are, not their usual aluminum, new manufacturing equipment will need to be designed, ordered, shipped, manufactured, tested, installed, the assembly line will need to be oriented to accommodate the equipment. Manufacturing processes will have to be created for the steel being used. Materials will need to be sourced, employees hired and trained and a lot of other moving parts will need to be organized. Remember, Elon had to shut down and re-design the Model 3 assembly line when he over automated the process and had problems, so this will be another "learn as you go" situation, which will slow things down. I would be knocked on my butt if Tesla decided to build a new plant vs using an existing one. I don't see how they could start from scratch and still meet Elon's delivery announcement, but then Tesla has missed Elon's deadlines before.
Some of the items you mention, tooling design, raw materials sourcing, could be done while a new plant is still in planning phases, much less under construction or completed, but your point is well taken that taking over an existing factory would likely be faster than building new in the US, if only because all the needed public infrastructure would already be there.
Elon time is dismal at best. He originally made a statement about vehicle MY deliveries being in late 2020 and next thing you know, deliveries began in Mar. I still have no faith in his timelines, I usually just say it'll be +/- 1 year.
I’d say around Oct/Nov this year is when we should start to have a better picture of what we should expect. I would expect that by that time, we should know of any design changes (that meet street legal standards). Once were in 2021, it’s anyone’s guess.