Tesla Full Self Driving Availability Prediction

[chillaban]

I get that this is a hyperbolic twist on the Elon joke from the OP, but let’s say we take it at face value and do the math. In 3 years you’d be better off buying FSD now if you could get up to 10% on your money annually elsewhere, and in 5 years you’d be better off at up to nearly 5%. $3000 * 1.1^3 = $3993, $3000 * 1.1^5 = $4020.

Note that it’s not necessarily a valid assumption that $4000 for after market activation of FSD will stay at that price, or even be offered in the future. Tesla routinely tweaks those prices or makes certain upgrades disappear...

AP1’s aftermarket activation price went up for everyone when they bumped the price of the option.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

Note that it’s not necessarily a valid assumption that $4000 for after market activation of FSD will stay at that price, or even be offered in the future. Tesla routinely tweaks those prices or makes certain upgrades disappear...

AP1’s aftermarket activation price went up for everyone when they bumped the price of the option.

Good point and example. I did start with pretty simple assumptions, and that risk factor might tilt things more toward “buy now”. Of course, there is also a risk that Tesla may never get there with FSD. (I’m trying to stay somewhat objective.)

 

[boaterva]

I’m not sure why ultrasonic sensors would be inherently too slow for this. https://www.mouser.com/ds/2/813/HCSR04-1022824.pdf is a data sheet for a cheap ultrasonic sensor: it seems like the sample rate is basically limited by the speed of sound and the roundtrip of the echo. Their 60ms suggested limit implies a sample rate of almost 20hz, which should be plenty good for detecting someone in your blind spot. There are also aftermarket blind spot detection systems based on ultrasonic sensors, and TI makes a sensor designed for it: http://www.ti.com/tool/TIDA-00151.

If it’s not ultrasonic vs. radar, then something is slowing it down. Perhaps the ‘processing’ is assuming it’s being used at parking speeds and doesn’t want to do, um, what? React too quickly? As many have posted, when a car goes by at highway speeds, the ultrasonics are many seconds behind in showing the status on the display. At parking speeds it works, because you are going a few or less feet per second.

 

[boaterva]

Note that it’s not necessarily a valid assumption that $4000 for after market activation of FSD will stay at that price, or even be offered in the future. Tesla routinely tweaks those prices or makes certain upgrades disappear...

AP1’s aftermarket activation price went up for everyone when they bumped the price of the option.

Exactly. I keep on seeing people saying ‘it’s guaranteed we can buy it forever at the $1000 extra price.’ No, no, it’s not. It never says that. It says that right NOW. So, you purchase the car now. Next month you can add the feature for the $1000 extra. Christmas? Next year? Maybe. 2020? 2025? Dream on.

Which is why I did so just to lock it in. Call me a fool all you want, I’m keeping the car for a while, and I’ll get my popcorn out and see where this goes!

 

[Barklikeadog]

I get that this is a hyperbolic twist on the Elon joke from the OP, but let’s say we take it at face value and do the math. In 3 years you’d be better off buying FSD now if you could get up to 10% on your money annually elsewhere, and in 5 years you’d be better off at up to nearly 5%. $3000 * 1.1^3 = $3993, $3000 * 1.1^5 = $4020.

Ive seen many of these calculations, but nobody seems to take into consideration the age of the car. Would you pay $4,000 for FSD on a car that is 5 years old? Doubtful.
You'd trade it in and get a new car that is much more advanced than the current models.
Same question but $3000... still unlikely anyone would pay for that on a car with 90k miles.
Why would anyone pay that amount now?
At least the money is guaranteed(if you want it to be)
And you won't get the trade value out of it later, because people will want FSD that works well(and has lidar)

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

Ive seen many of these calculations, but nobody seems to take into consideration the age of the car. Would you pay $4,000 for FSD on a car that is 5 years old? Doubtful.
You'd trade it in and get a new car that is much more advanced than the current models.
Same question but $3000... still unlikely anyone would pay for that on a car with 90k miles.
Why would anyone pay that amount now?
At least the money is guaranteed(if you want it to be)
And you won't get the trade value out of it later, because people will want FSD that works well(and has lidar)

Well, that’s a good point. One of the assumptions I’m making is that FSD is really “full” in N years. I plan on keeping the car for about a decade, so three years isn’t a huge deal for me, but to be fair we should derate the useful value of FSD over the remaining ownership period. But then I think we’d have to assess the value of FSD as well as its cost, and that might be different depending on who you are and what you do with your car.

 

[kavyboy]

10% on your money annually elsewhere

I admit I'm ignorant at investing, but I see these figures all the time on the internet - usually between 10 and 20% annual interest, maintained over several years. Pray tell, where could I find such opportunities?

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

I admit I'm ignorant at investing, but I see these figures all the time on the internet - usually between 10 and 20% annual interest, maintained over several years. Pray tell, where could I find such opportunities?

Ponzi schemes.

Seriously, there is no free lunch, and “past performance is no guarantee of future results” is more than just a legal disclaimer. The so-called “risk free rate” is the 30-year Treasury bond, which is only good for about 3% right now - not awesome after inflation and taxes. If you’re ok with some volatility then diversifying in stocks, bonds, and real estate to minimize exposure to systematic risk may provide decent returns over the long haul. But probably not 10-20% unless you’re Warren Buffett, and even he has not necessarily “beaten the market” lately. I like the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel if you’re looking for a nearly effortless way to invest.

 

[chillaban]

Good point and example. I did start with pretty simple assumptions, and that risk factor might tilt things more toward “buy now”. Of course, there is also a risk that Tesla may never get there with FSD. (I’m trying to stay somewhat objective.)

Totally, I think both sides are excellent arguments that a buyer should consider. Over the average course of ownership for premium car buyers, there is definitely a real risk that the FSD option either won't unlock anything, or have a sparse subset of features over EAP (stop lights and stop signs are the most commonly speculated features. I think they might put L3 conditional nag-free autonomy under FSD as well, once they're ready for that).

(Not to mention by the time FSD does anything interesting, a newer Tesla with even more interesting features might appeal more, and that $3000 is better spent towards trading in your current car anyway)

 

[CK_Stuggi]

The reason for me to lock in FSD was Elons statement that if you pre-purchase FSD and it turns out a hardware upgrade to the computer is needed, you'll receive it at no cost. This, of course, will not be offered to those who didn't prepay FSD.
Considering that, simply the hours of techs working on the car to access the computer, replace it and close it back up would be at least 500$, not counting the cost of the new computer (and that DrivePX supposedly was 10k plus in late 2016).
In effect, if you believe FSD is attainable while you still consider it a value-increasing feature for your car, get it now, especially if you believe it will require more powerful computing hardware.

 

[Barklikeadog]

The reason for me to lock in FSD was Elons statement that if you pre-purchase FSD and it turns out a hardware upgrade to the computer is needed, you'll receive it at no cost. This, of course, will not be offered to those who didn't prepay FSD.
Considering that, simply the hours of techs working on the car to access the computer, replace it and close it back up would be at least 500$, not counting the cost of the new computer (and that DrivePX supposedly was 10k plus in late 2016).
In effect, if you believe FSD is attainable while you still consider it a value-increasing feature for your car, get it now, especially if you believe it will require more powerful computing hardware.

Even the true believers here say that you cant go by 'elon's statements'

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

The reason for me to lock in FSD was Elons statement that if you pre-purchase FSD and it turns out a hardware upgrade to the computer is needed, you'll receive it at no cost. This, of course, will not be offered to those who didn't prepay FSD.
Considering that, simply the hours of techs working on the car to access the computer, replace it and close it back up would be at least 500$, not counting the cost of the new computer (and that DrivePX supposedly was 10k plus in late 2016).
In effect, if you believe FSD is attainable while you still consider it a value-increasing feature for your car, get it now, especially if you believe it will require more powerful computing hardware.

Conversely, do we know that people who didn’t lock in FSD won’t get a necessary hardware upgrade for free? If not, it seems Tesla would have to walk back on this statement from their own website:

“All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.”

 

[chillaban]

Conversely, do we know that people who didn’t lock in FSD won’t get a necessary hardware upgrade for free? If not, it seems Tesla would have to walk back on this statement from their own website:

“All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.”

That statement doesn’t mean anything though because it’s not saying they are committing to enabling that ability outside of the FSD option package.

Mercedes has been saying for years that the E class with Drive Pilot 2 is the “first production hardware” car capable of self driving, and by that they meant that some of the prototypes they registered in Nevada are 100% stock hardware E classes just with different software.

 

[EV-lutioin]

"soon"

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

That statement doesn’t mean anything though because it’s not saying they are committing to enabling that ability outside of the FSD option package.

Mercedes has been saying for years that the E class with Drive Pilot 2 is the “first production hardware” car capable of self driving, and by that they meant that some of the prototypes they registered in Nevada are 100% stock hardware E classes just with different software.

I’m not a legal expert but I don’t see how the FSD option applies in the context of Tesla’s statement at the top of their Autopilot page. The statement seems fairly unequivocal, so if later they told a customer, “Just kidding... you really need different hardware to make your car capable of full self driving,” I’d consider their original statement false and might expect some recompense.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I’m not a legal expert but I don’t see how the FSD option applies in the context of Tesla’s statement at the top of their Autopilot page. The statement seems fairly unequivocal, so if later they told a customer, “Just kidding... you really need different hardware to make your car capable of full self driving,” I’d consider their original statement false and might expect some recompense.

The class action lawsuit isn't going to be if, it will be when. They are going to regret it because they would have sold half a million model 3s without that fsd guarantee.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

The class action lawsuit isn't going to be if, it will be when. They are going to regret it because they would have sold half a million model 3s without that fsd guarantee.

Maybe I’m naively optimistic, but I think Tesla will get there: it’s more a question of when and whether they will have to replace hardware to keep their promises.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Too many variables to try to nail it down but I am confident that it will happen within the lifespan of my Model 3 when I get it. I plan on being in this car for 10 years or more. Worth the 3k at purchase to me.

Dan

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Excuse me. I'm the designated pollster around here. I'd like royalties per each vote you've received thus far and future, or I will sue you.

When Will Tesla Release FSD?

You are in luck: for the next 30 minutes, I accept dark chocolate as royalty payments. Hurry up and do not miss this deal of a lifetime!

 

[aronth5]

Here is another similar thread also with a poll.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/when-will-tesla-release-fsd.116701/#post-2777887