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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, May 31, 2018.
I believe Elon's latest guess was end of 2019. I'm very optimistically adding 3 quarters to that.
Probably 3-6 months... (Ducks and runs!!)
I think there is a major (multiple years) difference between when Tesla will START to release FSD Only features and when they release FSD Final. Which is the same for EAP. They are still releasing EAP Features but final EAP will probably not be done until late 2019.
I think we will START to see FSD Features early 2019.
Elon said in 2016 it was two years away.
Elon said in 2017 it was two years away.
Elon said in 2018 it was two years away.
What will Elon say in 2020? :0)
Would be nice if Elon promised something much simpler. Full self driving for single lane divided freeway.
As soon as you can recruit the 14 year old Canadian student to the team:
This Sudbury student built a self-driving go-kart that learns | CBC News
In 2020, he'll say just use the Boring Loops and BFR.
Agree. To start with true on ramp to exit ramp with no need to use a blinker to change lanes. Since the driver will still be expected to take over at any time that should avoid many of the legal requirements for full FSD that will be needed for different jurisdictions.
I suppose some will argue this is nothing more than enhanced EAP and they could be right. I just see gradual implementation as being the prudent approach for FSD. Plus the jury is still out in my opinion on whether AP2 hardware will be sufficient. If I was a betting person I'd say no. And yes I purchased FSD in spite of all the uncertainty.
Do you subscribe to Elon's Alpha Go analogy: the pace of development will accelerate, and finally start surprising favorably?
For instance, I think many owners were surprised by the latest major Autopilot update.
Are we talking talking about the same Elon?
Honestly speaking: if even AEB does not work yet, it will take a while more :-/
Absolutely no idea. Over time, I’ve gotten more radically agnostic about when anyone will commercialize full self-driving. It could be 2019 or 2025, and I don’t think anyone really knows (including people like Andrew Karpathy, John Krafcik, and Kyle Vogt).
Just so everyone's clear, level 5 is defined at Wayback Machine on page 2.
I guess one ambiguous part is what countries this "level 5 FSD" would be released in. US? Or just any single country (even if not US) counts as "released". And, "released" to me == a Tesla vehicle in real consumer hands (not an employee only release, could be AP beyond 2.x) can receive it (possibly requiring hardware update) or you can buy a new Tesla at that time with level 5 FSD working, after calibration is complete.
Publicly available in at least one state or country.
I have to laugh at anyone who voted any time in 2019. If they're serious, I think they've drank too much of the Elon Kool-Aid and are unaware of the progress, efforts, capabilities, programs and challenges of other major players (e.g. Waymo/Google and Cruise Automation).
In Singapore/HK, Tesla would release FSD perhaps 2-3 years before nation wide USA/Europe.
for USA, perhaps Arizona 2-3 years before coastal cities.
the Japanese quickly worked out that the constraint to FSD was not other human drivers but pedestrians etc, places that funnel alert pedestrians effectively, seems far more appropriate than where pedestrians are more unpredictable.
As I posted in the other thread....
Three years maybe, six years definitely.
Since every other manufacturer besides Tesla estimates (at least) the mid to high 2020s for that I´ll go with 2022+. Actually I don`t think it will ever work with the hardware Tesla is currently using.
Would love to be proven wrong ofc.
Tesla is pursuing a different FSD strategy based on vision only, while other manufacturers are pursing LIDAR-based one.
If history is any guide, then Elon will be proven right in the near-future, while others speed into a dead-end.
If history is any guide Elon will just continue to promise without delivering.
Concerning production/development realities the classic industry has a lot more credibility than Elon at this point.
"Elon-time" hasn`t become a winged word for nothing.
If history is any guide, Elon's vision only strategy will be about as correct as Gate's '640K ought to be enough for anybody.'