Yes, there were some investments since late 2014, but the huge investments will only follow when the M3 gets closer to a release date. (The S and X serve as good templates, see the spikes in the quarters before the models were released).
Same for the GF. As I mentioned before neither Tesla nor Panasonic invested a lot so far compared to the "full" $5 billion planned for the Gigafactory project:
Tesla invested around $261 million for construction until October 2015 and Panasonic invested just a few million so far. Even if we add some machinery to be later relocated to the GF that's certainly less than 10% of the planned total. From Tesla's latest 10-Q:
Looking at Tesla's balance sheet there is a huge cap-ex need for both the M3 and the rest of GF project in 2016-2020 imho (of course most people on this forum will disagree and say that Tesla can somehow pay for this with operational cash-flow beginning in 2016. I strongly disagree).
To repeat for those who didn't follow the thread earlier. The entire $2 billion Tesla raised in early 2014 is already gone:
I don't doubt there are some pretty big capex spends related to Model 3 coming in 2016 and 2017. However, there are already some pretty big spends in 2015. As mentioned before, the paint shop upgrade fills out the capacity to 500,000, or basically through 2020, through the entire Model 3 expansion. The initial Model 3 launch capacity is probably about double current factory capacity which is about 100,000-125,000 run rate a year. They are already sizing for that expansion. For example, the acquisition of the tool and die company was not for Model S or X. It's purely for Model 3. The Lanthrop facility is only necessary in the context of Model 3. I think many people look at Tesla's 2014 and 2015 capex spending as what is necessary to run the company at a steady state for Model S and then the expansion for Model X. That is not accurate. Tesla is well in the spending cycle for Model 3 and has been for some time. Of course, Tesla is managing cash through the entire Model 3 build out including the Gigafactory.
The late ramp up of the Model X - and in this context, I'm talking about the 4-6 months late that corresponds to the capex spending, not the original estimate of late 2013 given back in early 2012 before the Model S production even commenced. That 4-6 months of delay made the cash situation a problem, and that is about the worst case scenario for Tesla these days. They had to raise cash that causes the stock to drop and the product isn't ready. For the company, it turned out to be quite easy... $700 million later and they are in a confident position for the Model X launch. The hit to the stock overall wasn't even the cash raise per se, but the tardiness pushing to December. If the 2nd row seat issue didn't raise its ugly head causing an additional 2 month delay, then there is likely no medium term stock price hit at all for the cash raise.
Looking at the Gigafactory... originally, the estimate was for up to $2 billion spent by Tesla, another $2 billion by partners, and $1 billion by tax breaks and the like. Original estimate was for $4 billion to $5 billion total. The Gigafactory is now about 36% larger. So the original pilot plant of about 20% got juggled around some, including removing a partially built structure. A speech given by a Storey County representative confirms the addition of a floor to the Gigafactory, hence the footprint of the phase 1 pilot plant changed. I think this also corresponds to the "slow down" of work that was reported that was really a lull in construction as the factory was reconfigured for the additional floor. That threw some people for a loop, especially bears. Now the pilot plant is 14% of the full plant, but is really just about the same size as the original plans for the pilot plant... 2 million square feet. So the original plant was to pilot plant would have been about 20-25% of $1.6 to $2 billion, or $320 million to $500 million. Lo and behold, Tesla spent $261 million so far in construction costs (not necessarily all costs), $158.6 million in 2015, estimate up to $300 million for all of 2015:
Construction costs
Prior to 2015: $102.4 million
Total spent so far: $261 million
total for 2015: $300 million
Total estimate by end of 2015: $402.4 million
Well, $402.4 million is right within the original ballpark of the pilot factory of $320 to 500 million.
Panasonic already committed about $800 million (from memory, have to look it back up) for plant expansion in their current fiscal year. Of course, we don't know how much of that they are spending on the Gigafactory pilot plant, but given the other named projects, most of this is earmarked for the Gigafactory. Further, they really can't do all that much on site until there is an inside to work within. If Panasonic has already ordered tons and tons of equipment, is there any way for us to tell? Without sources within companies that provide such equipment or within Panasonic, we don't know. They aren't all that open with their disclosures as is typical for many companies in Japan and many parts of Asia.
Therefore, if your investment thesis is partially based on the Gigafactory being late, or not happening, I strongly suggest you re-examine the available evidence. You have to disbelieve Panasonic's IR presentation where they say they are spending large amounts of money on the Gigafactory - they don't bother to highlight expenditures that are small in their IR. All the actual data points indicate that the Gigafactory is, if anything, early. The temporary CoA was granted and Tesla Energy product assembly is in the process of happening inside the Gigafactory pilot plant. Which means there is an inside.
