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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
- Thread starter teddyg
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From that article "The increase in productivity will occur in Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory, which is subsidized by the state." (that is not something Chowdhry said, it's the article author)
What a ridiculous statement to make without any context. As Elon and JB clearly explained yesterday, and not for the first time, the Nevada state subsidies are miniscule compared to the investments in the factory made by Tesla and Panasonic, and are spread out over 20 years.
Gerardf
Active Member
Can you enlighten my why you refer to yesterdays shareholders meeting as a rant ?
I have seen it from start to end. It was long, very long.. Maybe some liked Elon's and JB's style, some maybe not so much. Some might like what was shared, some maybe found it less interesting.
One can say a lot about it, however to my opinion there was absolutely no ranting involved. At no point in the full websession. (Except maybe from one or two of the persons asking questions in the Q&A, even even they got very respectfull answers)
That remark shows your strong dislike of Elon Musk. Nothing wrong with not liking him, however IMHO it should not result in such unfair qualifications. It probably also means you are not able to honestly judge what was presented yesterday.
Straight question:
- do you think Mr. Musk (and / or Mr. Staubel) were telling lies ?
- or being dishonest or misleading shareholders in any way ?
Edit : typo / rephrasing
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No, of course not. See, they are just avatars in a giant simulation game:
Odds are we’re living in a simulation, says Elon Musk
It's not real, don't worry. In case Tesla or Solarcity ever fail, the game will just be restarted.
I somehow didn't enjoy the classic simulations "Howard Hughes - Latter Years" and "DotCom Trilogy", so I'm staying away from this one.
But have fun playing.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Gerardf
Active Member
You might think that is an answer, or somehow a smart way not to have to give a direct answer.
But why ? You are here as an anonymous person writing from "the Hop-Sing laundry".
What is the problem for you to simply give a straight answer on an honest question ?
- do you think really Mr. Musk (and / or Tesla management) are being dishonest and / or misleading shareholders (or even telling purposely telling lies) ?
Yes, I am really curious and honestly want to know if that IS indeed what you believe.
TFTF, for me it is clear that you do have a good understanding of automotive market. It is sad your opinion seems clouded by your dislike of Mr. Musk. As a result you give me (and others I assume) here the impression you are sometimes trolling. A pity and not needed, as I think you could have been a valuable resource here.
Moderator, feel free to move / delete this post if you want. I do not expect a straight answer, but hope TFTF surprises me.
Just wanted to give him a second opportunity to answer.
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Gerasimental
Member
SDI ICR18650 - 2200mAh capacity at 65g weight.
Panasonic NCR18650B - 3180mAh at 49g weight.
These must be for Tesla Energy.
Panasonic NCR18650B - 3180mAh at 49g weight.
These must be for Tesla Energy.
Yuri_G
Member
Hmm, I think I'll believe the Titan of industry vs. the "guy" that thinks all the established manufacturers will release compelling EVs that trump Tesla. How many of those exist again? Yeah, keep the hope alive. They'll be there in 5, oh wait, let's say 10 years just to be safe!
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Not a bad idea, but the capacity both volumetrically and in Wh/kg seems too low with these cells to make sense for Roadster upgrades.
dc_h
Active Member
Has anyone discussed the feasibility of the GF producing 3 times more battery storage due to increased chemical density, and not increased plant productivity? If they had some bigger gains in chemistry coming out for next year, they could produce twice the GWh, without 100% gain in production efficiency.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The ignore button is working well for me.
Not happening! That would be a revolutionary shift. Elon said "modest increase , not big, not small".
If they had that chemistry now why would they wait for the GF to introduce it?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Roadster 3.0 cells seem to be LG 3ah or so. 2.2ah is about the same or worse than the original Roadster cells, (I remember them as 2.4ah according to Martin). Could be stock for direct Roadster cell replacements I suppose if there are people who need replacement packs but don't want to upgrade, but I can't really imagine that making any sense since most of the labor would be the same, might as well put in the larger capacity cell.
dc_h
Active Member
I heard a rumor from an Apple person that they expect battery chemistry to improve more rapidly in the next 2-3 years and for battery life to be greatly improved and they credit the work being done by and for Tesla. I don't see THE productivity coming from increased density, but what if they have identified more than incremental improvements. If their scale and structure allowed them to double improvements, that would allow them to double GF output by 2020, assuming about 20% annual gains. Other posts have brought up some new industry trends and it does seem unlikely that they would go unnoticed by Tesla.
I said five years, 2017-2021. Except for maybe Toyota, all major car makers will offer a wide range EVs in all price categories before 2022.
(PHEVs even well before that, 2016-2020, these longer-range PHEVs such as the new Volt will offer good alternatives as well).
Not because of Tesla, but mainly because of upcoming emission regulations, better battery technology and better infrastructure:
- Stricter emission caps and penalties by the end of the decade in all major car markets (China, Europe, NA)
- Upgraded charging standards: Chademo and CCS both at 150 kW (and later 350kW if needed) for fast wired charging. Many of these CCS and Chademo charging networks are subsidized by public funds around the world, Tesla's stations for a single car brand are not.
- New battery plants in forms of JVs or other large supply contracts with mostly Asian suppliers as needed (don't think the planning/supply departments at these large car makers forgot about the batteries): LG; Samsung; Panasonic; Chinese brands...
Compare Tesla's hyperbole announcements "$5billion investment for Gigafactory 1", "up to 150 GWh from Gigafactory 1", "up to 1 million cars from Fremont", "millions of cars by 2025" and finally "we could match/exceed Apple's market cap within a decade" with the actual competition / reality on the ground by 2020-2022, not before.
Tesla and its CEO like to talk about the future - and rarely about the additional funds to get there. Large car makers and other relative newcomers (such as BYD) on the other hand execute quietly on their plans.
And they actually have the billions needed each year to get there.
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Two points
1) Billions can come from debt, equity and partnerships. The partnership they will need in China may come with much of the financing needed for the Asia market. Europe won't be a complete factory at first.
2) The market seems fine with buying Tesla equity. If Tesla can execute on the model 3, this trend will likely continue on a larger scale.
I do expect Tesla to be capital limited on growth over the next decade. But the longer the Tesla backlog of orders, the cheaper the new capital.
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