Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[schonelucht]

1. What many experts? Like name them and provide links to their 'expert' studies. I hope there's charts. The colors are so pretty.
2. Got any experts who aren't 'guessing'? Soon, may, might, maybe, possible, etc... doesn't instill confidence in the 'expert'. Indeed, an expert is suppose to know otherwise they aren't an expert.

It's not that far fetched. Panasonic essentially said the same thing during their recent investor day (question 4).

 

[JohnSnowNW]

It's not that far fetched. Panasonic essentially said the same thing during their recent investor day (question 4).

They said they are "striving" to make prismatic competitive with cylindrical. I'm not really seeing an admission that they will reach cost competitive soon, or at any point.

 

[electracity]

Many experts say the costs of the two approaches will converge soon or that prismatic/pouch cells may even be cheaper than cylindrical cells.

Prismatic batteries are popular because they put more of the safety burden on the cell manufacturer. Tesla pack design is obviously safe. Pouch cells can perhaps beat cylinders on price, but probably at a higher C rate. Tesla probably isn't structured to compete with low end EV. The model 2 will probably be like the honda civic, which is considerably nicer than economy Chinese cars.

Tesla's advantage this decade is being the only high volume PACK manufacturer, with the possible exception of the Chinese. The cost and performance of the pack are the critical metrics. With the gigafactory in production, Tesla will likely be producing the highest value packs in the auto industry for a number of years. Everyone one else is likely a couple years behind in knowledge, and perhaps even further back when willingness to execute large volume EV is considered.

 

[JRP3]

They said they are "striving" to make prismatic competitive with cylindrical. I'm not really seeing an admission that they will reach cost competitive soon, or at any point.

I've always assumed it will happen at some point. Assuming an energy dense chemistry that doesn't benefit from the advantages a small cylinder provides, i.e. temperature control, failure propagation, and structural layer containment. Basically a safer high C rate chemistry, such as LiFePO4 but with better energy density.

 

[dalalsid]

I wrote that it's likely the Ioniq will likely have a range 150+ miles. It didn't. But Hyundai will have a 200-mile car by 2018 (different model):

Hyundai All-Electric SUV To Arrive In 2018, With 200 Miles Of Range

Now when will the Tesla Model3 ship in volume? Are you sure it will ship before that car given all the delays Tesla encountered?

Model 3 will ship in volume before any other competitor (real competitor - not pretenders with gas backups, hybrids, lack of fast charging capability - not talking supercharging network but just the ability to charge at >100kW) ships in volume. And lets get specific about volume. Volume = >100k/yr global deliveries. As for competition before 2022, your tales are from a different simulation than ours.

 

[neroden]

GM is moving faster than anyone else, Nissan second, in the ICE world. As long as you are a posting no facts, no charts, no names you'd be better off just hypothesizing that one of the Chinese companies may catch Tesla due to Chinese govt state support. That at least may be realistic.

FWIW, for my investment-grade projections, I just *assume* that there will be two major Chinese competitors who catch up to Tesla, and I don't know which ones.

It doesn't seem to matter. If we assume 2 Chinese companies, Nissan, GM, and Tesla -- and we assume they're competing only in the upper half of the automotive market (assuming some technical snag prevents EV prices from dropping to make the lower half profitable) -- that gives Tesla 1/10 of the automotive market. Seems big enough to make a lot of money, eh?

 

[techmaven]

Many experts say the costs of the two approaches will converge soon or that prismatic/pouch cells may even be cheaper than cylindrical cells.

There were some that said this years ago, and they also gave price and specific energy estimates that were wrong. Some of this is based on the hope that high voltage NMC would work, but it didn't. So any estimate based on high voltage NMC working has to be thrown out unless they manage solve the technical hurdles of massive voltage fade.

Now even Battery University says that cylindrical is cheaper:
A Look at Cell Formats and how to Build a good Battery – Battery University

Obviously, this can change with improvements in battery chemistry. But as we all know, or should know, battery chemistry changes that make it into products is a slow process. The significant changes coming in the near term involve increasing the amount of silicon in the anode and that likely isn't going to alter this equation.

Form factor is relatively immaterial anyways.

 

[Rarity]

Seems boring in comparison to the recent SolarCity fireworks, but...

I have been tracking gigafactory employment for a few months on LinkedIn. The past two months have shown some increases in headcount. May had a 17% increase, but the hiring slowed in June -- only a 7% increase. Currently employing at least 130. Compare to employment totals as of March 31, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 317.

Panasonic started hiring in June -- a 16% increase. May saw no increase. Panasonic has 29+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to employment totals as of March 31, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 52.

I have been tracking gigafactory employment for a few months. The past two months have shown a significant uptick in hiring -- a roughly 20% increase per month. Currently employing at least 104.

Panasonic has not increased its gigafactory headcount much at all. Currently, Panasonic has 25+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory).

 

[NicoV]

Tesla will add new section (5th) to the Gigafactory by December, Battery cell manufacturing equipment by July 20th Cell production equipment installed before the grand opening?

 

[techmaven]

Tesla will add new section (5th) to the Gigafactory by December, Battery cell manufacturing equipment by July 20th Cell production equipment installed before the grand opening?

This is really big news. Not the cell production equipment installed before grand opening, I doubt anything is truly operational by that time. It seems November is a more realistic timeframe.

However, gives us a sense of timing for the next section. If they complete that section this year, and it takes 9 months or so for that section to start producing cells, we're looking exceeding the original 35 GWh of cell production estimate in 2018 - basically moving up the timetable by 2 years.

Key aspects to look at include the amount of Panasonic investment ahead of that section's completion. We want to see more than $400 million invested by Panasonic in the pilot phase. Plus, obviously, at some point Panasonic has to communicate to its shareholders the next year's capex. That will be very interesting.

 

[dakh]

This is really big news. Not the cell production equipment installed before grand opening, I doubt anything is truly operational by that time. It seems November is a more realistic timeframe.

However, gives us a sense of timing for the next section. If they complete that section this year, and it takes 9 months or so for that section to start producing cells, we're looking exceeding the original 35 GWh of cell production estimate in 2018 - basically moving up the timetable by 2 years.

Key aspects to look at include the amount of Panasonic investment ahead of that section's completion. We want to see more than $400 million invested by Panasonic in the pilot phase. Plus, obviously, at some point Panasonic has to communicate to its shareholders the next year's capex. That will be very interesting.

That could also mean cell production can start but the line that goes from raw materials to ready to install car modules and powerpacks won't be ready for some time.

 

[techmaven]

That could also mean cell production can start but the line that goes from raw materials to ready to install car modules and powerpacks won't be ready for some time.

I suspect that after installation, there is quite some time before everything works properly together. So installation could technically be finished in July, but real cell production might not be viable until much later.

 

[tftf]

I suspect that after installation, there is quite some time before everything works properly together. So installation could technically be finished in July, but real cell production might not be viable until much later.

Much later? In a mere six months (around November 2016) from now, the $5billion Gigafactory will spit out high-quality Panasonic cells faster than a machine gun (Elon's quote):

Panasonic to jump-start US battery cell output for Tesla- Nikkei Asian Review

There's a additional investments of $63 million for this new section, so we are likely already at close to $5.1 billion (since media reports talked about $billion in the past) in total cap-ex:

Tesla will add new section (5th) to the Gigafactory by December, Battery cell manufacturing equipment by July 20th

Soon Tesla can replicate this Gigafactory (one each in Europe and Asia) to widen the lead compared to legacy car makers.

 

[techmaven]

Much later? In a mere six months (around November 2016) from now, the $5billion Gigafactory will spit out high-quality Panasonic cells faster than a machine gun (Elon's quote):

Panasonic to jump-start US battery cell output for Tesla- Nikkei Asian Review

There's a additional investments of $63 million for this new section, so we are likely already at close to $5.1 billion (since media reports talked about $billion in the past) in total cap-ex:

Tesla will add new section (5th) to the Gigafactory by December, Battery cell manufacturing equipment by July 20th

Soon Tesla can replicate this Gigafactory (one each in Europe and Asia) to widen the lead compared to legacy car makers.

Yup! Behold... the Gigafactory pilot phase, which Tesla has pretty much done with its capex investment, will exceed the combined output of LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and SKI. Best thing is that Tesla will have spent more like $500 million in order to do that.

BTW, compare the $63 million against the earlier building permits... you'll note that the permits are not for everything in a section. It is bigger than sum of the permits for the shell of the pilot phase.

 

[geturchiru]

Much later? In a mere six months (around November 2016) from now, the $5billion Gigafactory will spit out high-quality Panasonic cells faster than a machine gun (Elon's quote):

One question I have regarding evaluating a factory value from experts. Is it per annum output value of its product or per annum operation cost or the build cost or something else?
For the first two which are almost same minus profit, I dont see a problem matching the cap ex spend vs the progress because the raw materials cost is not yet included in spending!!

 

[tftf]

Yup! Behold... the Gigafactory pilot phase, which Tesla has pretty much done with its capex investment, will exceed the combined output of LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and SKI. Best thing is that Tesla will have spent more like $500 million in order to do that.
BTW, compare the $63 million against the earlier building permits... .

So a little more than $500 million built the largest battery factory in the world. Amazing. Guess Tesla and Panasonic overshot cap-ex estimates by 90% then!

 

[neroden]

When people call it a "$5 billion factory" they're usually referring to build cost.

 

[gigglehertz]

When people call it a "$5 billion factory" they're usually referring to build cost.

Don't bother trying to explain anything to him. "Where will they get the $5 billion?" has been his shtick for years and he isn't going to change.

 

[hobbes]

Taking this over here form the short term thread where @doggusfluffy posted this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/25/b...lon-musk-is-moving-full-speed-ahead.html?_r=1

This picture shows several new pads where they are preparing the foundation works:

This is also described in the article:

In high-desert heat outside Reno, Nev., last week, J. B. Straubel looked out at a vast dirt patch, a construction site that had just broken ground.


“This will be building batteries in 12 months,” said Mr. Straubel, Tesla’s chief technology officer and a co-founder of the company with Mr. Musk.

Behind Mr. Straubel was another part of the factory, already built and partly up and running. The buildings here will eventually make up the $5 billion Gigafactory, covering 10 million square feet and projected to put out what the company says will be more lithium-ion batteries each year than were produced globally in all of 2013.

Good news, things are moving ahead !

 

[Cobbler]

A possible idea: how will the raw material get from a nearby Lithium-mine to the Gigafactory?

A well made road with visible centerline so that Autopilot can steer the Tesla semi's/drones to their destination. Everything automated with almost zero human interaction.
Just think about it