Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[Krugerrand]

Lets not get carried away. Elon said that incentives were not the most important but speed. He said Nevada's main attribute is that it has a get things done attitude. He said Nevada is a "get things done State." And that is why he would encourage other companies looking to expand to come to Nevada.

And it was also stated that Nevada did not offer the most incentives. But by all means, tell me who the deal is bad for?

 

[RobStark]

Panels... Do you think SCTY's manufacturing will be able to handle that order???

By the time the GF needs them yes.

The GF will not be installing their solar panels before June 2016.

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And it was also stated that Nevada did not offer the most incentives. But by all means, tell me who the deal is bad for?

I am not disputing the fact Nevada did not offer the most incentives.


New legal business are not bad for anyone. The point is Nevada was not chosen for the betterment of man but because Nevada offered a competitive incentives package and the speed with which the Nevada government can approve the incentives ,permits, and other sundries Tesla will need.

 

[Krugerrand]

The point is Nevada was not chosen for the betterment of man but because Nevada offered a competitive incentives package and the speed with which the Nevada government can approve the incentives ,permits, and other sundries Tesla will need.

That is narrow, superficial thinking particularly when you know the purpose for Tesla in the first place. All decisions made are specifically to reach the end goal, which will benefit all.

 

[bonnie]

Oh don't mind us here in California. We're trying to find our way out of all the red tape muck and mire that cost us the gigafactory deal. It's easier to just be in a bad mood about it all.

 

[RobStark]

That is narrow, superficial thinking particularly when you know the purpose for Tesla in the first place. All decisions made are specifically to reach the end goal, which will benefit all.

This is fantastical thinking.

The end goal,which benefits all, can be reached by building the Gigafactory in Arizona,California, New Mexico, or Texas.

The reason Nevada was chosen was the speed with which State and local government can process things. That was the competitive advantage for Nevada.

Elon himself said the same thing. Elon starts speaking at about the 13:45 minute.

 

[bonnie]

This is fantastical thinking.

The end goal,which benefits all, can be reached by building the Gigafactory in Arizona,California, New Mexico, or Texas.

The reason Nevada was chosen was the speed with which State and local government can process things. That was the competitive advantage for Nevada.

Elon himself said the same thing. Elon starts speaking at about the 13:45 minute.

I think the point is that reaching the end goal sooner is of benefit to mankind sooner. And that was Nevada's competitive advantage.

 

[RobStark]

I think the point is that reaching the end goal sooner is of benefit to mankind sooner. And that was Nevada's competitive advantage.

Well, if you are going to spin things like a K Street firm any option Tesla might take is for the betterment of Tesla and therefore mankind.

Bigger profits will allow Tesla to reinvest in more Gigafactories and Auto factories sooner so seeking the highest profits possible and highest incentives possible is for the betterment of mankind.

 

[BlueTan85]

Panels... Do you think SCTY's manufacturing will be able to handle that order???

Also, Sparks averages ~253 days of sunshine annually and ~5 in of snowfall annually.

How does that impact Elon's claim that the factory is energy self-sufficient?

 

[Curt Renz]

Also, Sparks averages ~253 days of sunshine annually and ~5 in of snowfall annually.

How does that impact Elon's claim that the factory is energy self-sufficient?

The project will include a wind farm. Solar energy still radiates through clouds, although at a slowed pace. Meanwhile, the factory will be producing battery packs that allow stored energy to be released when required.

 

[wk057]

The project will include a wind farm. Solar energy still radiates through clouds, although at a slowed pace. Meanwhile, the factory will be producing battery packs that allow stored energy to be released when required.

Musk mentions solar, geothermal, and wind. I'd assume there would be substantial battery based storage as well.

 

[chickensevil]

It is also stated at Net Zero Energy. This doesn't mean self sustaining... it very much still depends on the grid for any downtime periods or any lack of your own energy production. They will assuredly have stationary storage to mellow out their power curves but having enough storage to capture that much energy would be likely 200+ MW of power (just a rough guess, that is likely too low... I don't remember if they mentioned energy production needs anywhere else)

Anyway, the point would be to pull from the grid when you are too low on power and push to the grid when you over-produce, again having what batteries you can to mellow those fluctuations out so you don't pull or push as much in either direction. But being tied to the grid will also allow them to have a backup plan to keep up production should a core piece of their energy production drop off all of a sudden.

 

[InTheShadows]

Yeah no one here was expecting this major of an incentive since everyone thought Texas would have the mist money to give... And we all saw their deal. So this is crazy good on many levels. Hopefully it contributes toward Elons suggestion that they might beat the 30% cost reduction

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I like where your head is at with all of this I do, so hope this doesn't deflate your bubble too much, but they said in the last conference call that about 4 Bn would be spent getting it up and running by 2017 and then another 1Bn would be spent getting to full speed. The 5Bn in replacement costs is a new thing so I don't know what to make of that, but just throwing out that they still need 4Bn to get it rolling.

On the other hand they could use this to fund the second factory

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What about power generation? Delaware is far too north for Solar to be amazing... Useful, just not amazing... Could do off shore wave power generation, maybe? But I just don't see anywhere on the east coast being a choice right now... Unless I missed something.

Reno is 39.50 north and Wilmington is 39.67. Stated another way it's slightly less than 12 miles further north.


Using NREL weather data Wilmington gets 4.69 hours of sunlight per day vs Reno at 5.94, both if which are awesome compared to Germany's 2.8 sun hours per day.

Deleware is an awesome candidate for solar energy.

 

[AlMc]

Reno is 39.50 north and Wilmington is 39.67. Stated another way it's slightly less than 12 miles further north.


Using NREL weather data Wilmington gets 4.69 hours of sunlight per day vs Reno at 5.94, both if which are awesome compared to Germany's 2.8 sun hours per day.

Deleware is an awesome candidate for solar energy.

Thank you Mr. Shadows! :biggrin:

 

[chickensevil]

Reno is 39.50 north and Wilmington is 39.67. Stated another way it's slightly less than 12 miles further north.


Using NREL weather data Wilmington gets 4.69 hours of sunlight per day vs Reno at 5.94, both if which are awesome compared to Germany's 2.8 sun hours per day.

Deleware is an awesome candidate for solar energy.

I think it is more than just latitude though. There is a reason the hottest part of this map is in the middle of the desert. Reno is in the red/orange zone whereas Delaware is in the yellow/green zone. I am not saying it wouldn't be worth it to use solar, just not as good. You are talking about 4.5kW vs probably closer to 6kW between the two areas.

 

[InTheShadows]

I think it is more than just latitude though. There is a reason the hottest part of this map is in the middle of the desert. Reno is in the red/orange zone whereas Delaware is in the yellow/green zone. I am not saying it wouldn't be worth it to use solar, just not as good. You are talking about 4.5kW vs probably closer to 6kW between the two areas.

View attachment 58485

I do the calculations every day. The numbers I quoted are solid and irrefutable. The colors on those maps mean nothing. What matters is the NREL data I quoted above.

You can change the feel by changing the colors of the maps. Below is the official NREL map that takes the full scale into account. When looking at this map you can see that there is a difference, however it is not nearly as large as most maps make it out to be.

If all Tesla was concerned about for the gigafactory was solar insolation then Arizona would have won hands down.

 

[Model 3]

If all Tesla was concerned about for the gigafactory was solar insolation then Arizona would have won hands down.

Speaking of which, here's an article (Norwegian, use google translate) on a coal mine(!) at 78 degrees north, which is testing the use of solar to reduce their consumption of fossil fuels to meet the energy demand.

- How are the conditions for solar power in Svalbard?

- Basically it's the same amount of sunshine over the globe. The challenge is how light is distributed. Far north has little light in winter. And the sun path goes over much of the horizon during the summer months, providing challenges with the angle of the panels, says Johannessen.

In other words, it's under the bright part of the year that the solar cells make themselves useful. The advantage is that once it's sunny, you have a steady supply of large parts of the day.

Improved efficacy at low temperature

However, other factors mean that solar power is a favorable solution to the north.

- Solar provides better efficiency at low temperatures. In addition, snow and clear air gives at times more light. Moreover Longyearbyen has much cloud cover in the summer, providing excellent conditions for so-called diffuse radiation, so that the solar cells can capture more sunlight when the sun is in an unfavorable position for the panels.

So, you can see that the next solar powered GF may end up in Alaska

 

[Cattledog]

It is also stated at Net Zero Energy. This doesn't mean self sustaining... it very much still depends on the grid for any downtime periods or any lack of your own energy production. They will assuredly have stationary storage to mellow out their power curves but having enough storage to capture that much energy would be likely 200+ MW of power (just a rough guess, that is likely too low... I don't remember if they mentioned energy production needs anywhere else)

Anyway, the point would be to pull from the grid when you are too low on power and push to the grid when you over-produce, again having what batteries you can to mellow those fluctuations out so you don't pull or push as much in either direction. But being tied to the grid will also allow them to have a backup plan to keep up production should a core piece of their energy production drop off all of a sudden.

I agree that they will tie to the grid for back-up/start-up purposes, but wouldn't it be great if the gigafactory was also a proof of concept for stationary storage? Not a couple of megawatt-hour tester project like at the Tesla factory, but as you suggested, 200+ mWh of storage so the factory runs 99.99%+ of the time with renewables or onsite, stored energy. 200 mWh is .4% of one year's full battery production at the plant, almost a rounding error. Would be a great way to show industrial, distribution, warehouse developments of the future a clean way to energy independence. Even though it won't be here for a few years, 200 mWh of storage at $100/kWh is $20M.

 

[electrictorque]

I have an idea. what if we started a crowd funding to help Tesla's raise money for the gigafactory? would most longs donate $100 bucks each?

 

[AudubonB]

I have an idea. what if we started a crowd funding to help Tesla's raise money for the gigafactory? would most longs donate $100 bucks each?

Well, if they run with Model 3's last line (post #1536, two posts up), I'll even donate $200! :-D

H*ll, I'll even donate the 1,000 acres.

 

[mershaw2001]

I have an idea. what if we started a crowd funding to help Tesla's raise money for the gigafactory? would most longs donate $100 bucks each?

I'd put a few hundred into it, but if they gave a decent interest rate (like 4%) or made it like stock (so there was some upside if tesla succeeded) I'd buy several thousand simply to support the company.