Chickenlittle
Banned
Even if they didn't tesla would find it easy to fund 1 billion out of receipts in three yearsThe suggestion was that Panasonic would bring others with them.
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Even if they didn't tesla would find it easy to fund 1 billion out of receipts in three yearsThe suggestion was that Panasonic would bring others with them.
Suppose that Panasonic decide to participate in the Gigafactory and to invest $1B, that would still not be enough, as more investment will be required (at least $4B, but $5B would be more likely). Which other company is most likely to be stepping forward as a partner of Tesla Motors, and to make an additional investment in the Gigafactory (for another $1B?)?
The one part of all of this I don't understand is why Elon/Tesla would make a major announcement such as the gigafactory and go through the whole process of raising their own $2.3 billion for it if they weren't absolutely sure they already had partners lined up or at least in the final stages of discussion. I don't remember a time that the company has ever made any poor decisions since their inception even remotely close to what this would be if they could not find any/enough partners for the GF and they were left stranded. It just doesn't seem to be Elon's way to make a big announcement like that that would have the potential to greatly backfire.
I agree, on the face of it, it seems like the announcement was premature. Why tell the world about such an audacious plan without a clearer path to roll it out? The fact that it came on the heels of the earnings report is suspect. IMO TM should have waited till they had some more concrete plans for the GF before they announced, and I think the share price is going to reflect the weight of this doubt.
Why tell the world about such an audacious plan without a clearer path to roll it out?
Suppose that Panasonic decide to participate in the Gigafactory and to invest $1B, that would still not be enough, as more investment will be required (at least $4B, but $5B would be more likely). Which other company is most likely to be stepping forward as a partner of Tesla Motors, and to make an additional investment in the Gigafactory (for another $1B?)?
The one part of all of this I don't understand is why Elon/Tesla would make a major announcement such as the gigafactory and go through the whole process of raising their own $2.3 billion for it if they weren't absolutely sure they already had partners lined up or at least in the final stages of discussion. I don't remember a time that the company has ever made any poor decisions since their inception even remotely close to what this would be if they could not find any/enough partners for the GF and they were left stranded. It just doesn't seem to be Elon's way to make a big announcement like that that would have the potential to greatly backfire.
hummingbird: Tesla through JB Straubel have said on several occasions that the cell they are currently using in the Model S packs is not the regular NCA18650 3.4mAh cell, which I suppose Panasonic hold the full patent for, but a modified, "automotive grade", cell that is specified and designed by and for Tesla. So we do not really know that there are any Panasonic patents as of now that would prevent Tesla from manufacturing cells on their own. The 18650 cell format and the general principles of LiIon batteries absolutely not subject to patent protection by Panasonic, as we know there are other suppliers out there manufacturing cells that can, in effect, substitute the Panasonic cells. So if Panasonic were to not participate in the Gigafactory, for some of the good reasons you bring up (why drive down price, being conservative etc) then I suppose it all comes down to financials: can Tesla finance the factory themselves, or find another more willing partner. From the past we've seen that Elon is bascially as much a financial as well as technological genius and again and again he keeps coming up with creative and attractive new financing models.
Current cell chemistries are jointly developed by the two companies. Tesla is stuck with Panasonic for now.
I get it and maybe you are right. However, this is literally the first thing you learn about the Japanese culture if you take any global culture course at a University. Heck, I think I heard this in high school. I hear it so much I wonder if it is even true. There is no way Elon Musk and his negotiation team are not familiar with the way the Japanese communicate. I am more likely to believe this is what they said, Tesla understood them perfectly, and Tesla is trying to strong arm Panasonic into making a deal by announcing their intentions and demonstrating their ability to raise cash and go it alone. We won't know any more until we know any more.I had some interactions with the Japanese in the past. During discussions, they will often say "yes, yes, yes" to mean "yes, I understand what you said", but they do not mean "yes, we have a deal". Americans hear "yes, yes, yes" and assume yes means they have a deal.
I get it and maybe you are right. However, this is literally the first thing you learn about the Japanese culture if you take any global culture course at a University. Heck, I think I heard this in high school. I hear it so much I wonder if it is even true. There is no way Elon Musk and his negotiation team are not familiar with the way the Japanese communicate. I am more likely to believe this is what they said, Tesla understood them perfectly, and Tesla is trying to strong arm Panasonic into making a deal by announcing their intentions and demonstrating their ability to raise cash and go it alone. We won't know any more until we know any more.
Here is my version of what may have happened ... (a pure guess on my part)