where is the "i'm confused" icon? for non sequitors
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla Gigafactory
- Thread starter domenick
- Start date
The subtitles make it so much clearer. :/
That guy has the most ill-fitting dentures ever.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Zapped
Model S - PURE EV
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
So at GF1 - they need to build a city to have housing to have workers to build batteries to build cars. They have "only" built a battery factory, the biggest in the world and started a world wide movement. Now they need more batteries to build more cars and power plants. In view of international trade wars and intellectual property theft, they have made a deal and can now blade the 200 acres. I think this is a promo video moment!! What will this farm land look like in a few years? Could Reno see this far ahead?
For shits and giggles, you may want to read the history of Shenzhen. In 1980 it was a fishing village population ~200. Two years later it was a city of 20M or something. The Chinese know how to make cities lol.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Any bets as to how long it will take to make the first battery? GF1 took - 3 years? - from ground breaking.
I expect GF 3 will go a little faster. For good or bad, the Chinese don't worry about things like environmental impact statements, zoning, etc. Tesla also has a better idea what they're doing this time. The GF 1 was the first time anyone had actually done that and this can build on some of that knowledge.
The first car may roll off the line around early 2021.
The first car may roll off the line around early 2021.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
So - three years is your bet?
I don't know how long GF1 took - just grabbed a date from the air that felt about right. Was actually hoping someone had a better time line. And you said CAR, not just battery. I was thinking they would build the battery line first and perhaps sell a bunch of them while building the car line. Any reason for this?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
They could throw up some tents and start producing much sooner while the actual building is being constructed.
Tesla also has to establish a new supply chain in Asia. Some items, like seats, could be made by a vendor.
There is also the language challenge. Tesla has a lot of changing procedures and half-assed homegrown software systems that are going to need to somehow be transferred to China. The layoffs earlier this year certainly won't help the effort to be sufficiently organized to start a second factory.
In establishing the new supply chain they may find some ways to cut costs on cars assembled in Fremont.
I'm not convinced that the battery cells will be made in the Shanghai GF.
There is also the language challenge. Tesla has a lot of changing procedures and half-assed homegrown software systems that are going to need to somehow be transferred to China. The layoffs earlier this year certainly won't help the effort to be sufficiently organized to start a second factory.
In establishing the new supply chain they may find some ways to cut costs on cars assembled in Fremont.
I'm not convinced that the battery cells will be made in the Shanghai GF.
Unlikely that that would be seats as Tesla makes them in-house in a almost 100% automated factory. That would just be a quick copy/paste for them.
Elon's vision is to make factories that take raw materials in one end and cars come out the other. I don't see any reason they would just make batteries there. They have enough other sources for cells elsewhere.
I think they'll continue to play it by ear and load-balance available supply of cells between the products to maximize cash flows but not starve any of the product categories too much.
I.e. I don't think the Semi will reach 100k/year at the expense of the Y - especially in the U.S. SUVs are totally important and many new EV entries are [Compact] SUVs, so Tesla absolutely doesn't want to starve the Y.
The Y also completes Tesla's automotive product line nicely, so I'm pretty sure the Y will get priority over the Semi.
Also, there's no reason the Gigafactory couldn't expand beyond 105 GWh/year - it's not like there's no space nearby - for example there's a new, huge parking lot near the Gigafactory, built this year:
That could free up the parking lots which are next to the Gigafactory right now, allowing for expansion.
This photo is also, I believe, the clearest indication yet that they are going to make the Model Y and the Semi at the Gigafactory (if you don't trust the various other hints they've been dropping), and this new parking lot is holding space for the new cars/trucks.
Gonna be some fantastic photos once that lot starts filling up.
On top of that, Tesla exercised the option to buy buy the adjacent 1800 or so acres. Brings the site size above 4 square miles. GF1 as a pure battery/drive unit plant does not need that much space. However, using a 16 unit mobile home per acre limit, it's around 10k units per square mile for Teslaville. If it is co-located.
Parking lot, or building site prep? If all those trailers are staged and not just stored, I wouldn't put it past them to be planning a solar farm there. Perhaps parking with chargers at every (other, third...) spot fed from awning panels.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Ive now seen more "official" tasks for GF3 - They want to make "car parts" soon (2019). They are NOT saying finished cars, and they are not saying batteries. Perhaps just getting something/anything being produced soon- and starting cash flow - is a good step at getting roads, staff, tariffs, (bribes?), and other community things in place.
Man this guy has more irons in the flames - hard to keep up with the many vectors.
Elon vision WAS to take in raw material and produce finished products. That is and was a stupid idea. Not everything he comes up with on his acid trips is going to work in the real world.
Successful manufacturing requires making decisions to maximize ROI. If a vendor is more efficient at processing raw materials used in battery cell production then Tesla loses if they chose to do the processing in-house.
Musk has actually been poor at strategy involving process. This includes Solarcity and "Alien Dreadnaught".
It's going to be interesting if he tries to force a lot of different manufacturing processes into GF1 because the concept is such a groovy idea. The lack of a Tim Cook COO type that Musk's defers to on process decisions is a significant risk factor going forward. Maybe the Mercedes truck guy will finally be someone who can fit that role.
Successful manufacturing requires making decisions to maximize ROI. If a vendor is more efficient at processing raw materials used in battery cell production then Tesla loses if they chose to do the processing in-house.
Musk has actually been poor at strategy involving process. This includes Solarcity and "Alien Dreadnaught".
It's going to be interesting if he tries to force a lot of different manufacturing processes into GF1 because the concept is such a groovy idea. The lack of a Tim Cook COO type that Musk's defers to on process decisions is a significant risk factor going forward. Maybe the Mercedes truck guy will finally be someone who can fit that role.
May I respectfully suggest you quietly look in a mirror
here's a vague analogy.
take a blueprint, a whole bunch of wheels, gears, random stuff, drop in a magic bag, and shake, reach in and pull out a clock, and another clock and another clock,etc
OR more appropos
take a blueprint (DNA), add material, do massive parallel processing (RNA etc) out pops a living something, that can also self replicate
He's mimicing biological processes that have had millions and billions of years to refine
@electracity
you are the result of a blueprint, raw materials in, finished product out, you cannot see the obvious, which is why you are mostly on ignore, and i think i saw you on seeking alpha, which is about 50 - 100 strikes also
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I think Elon favors vertical integration because it is more efficient and gives a better ROI and quality, even it it is more work at the start.
Not sure Elon takes acid but it is known to enhance creativity. Don't knock it until you have tried it.
Anecdote: I was running errands in Reno yesterday and at one parking lot a fellow asked me how I liked my car. As usual, I told him it was great, best car ever, etc. He told me he worked at GF1 making motors. He was happy to have the confirmation that what he was doing was appreciated.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Looks like VW is going to imitate the GF model for batteries:
VW Planning Its Own Battery Gigafactory With Help From SK Innovation
Of course, they are late to the game being 5 to 10 years behind Tesla.
VW Planning Its Own Battery Gigafactory With Help From SK Innovation
Of course, they are late to the game being 5 to 10 years behind Tesla.
Similar threads
- Article
