Tesla Investor Day Discussion

[jeewee3000]

Here is some of my personal, unprofessional speculation regarding Project Highland, Gen 3 and the fully autonomous, dedicated Robotaxi.

Whenever I thought about the design of the Robotaxi, I came to the conclusion that it just makes sense to build the vehicle symmetrical. Same design for front and rear end of the vehicle. Power both axles and include all wheel steering.

There would be no need for the car to reverse, make u turns or similar manuvers since it could simply switch the direction, turn the front lights into rear lights and the other way around. Essentially making a 180° turn on the spot without moving an inch. The old rear end is now the front end. Similar to some high-speed trains.

So what if... The dedicated Robotaxi will use just one casting but *not* in a unibody way. The frame will be made ot of two castings and one structural battery pack, but! the castings are identical. It is the same piece from the same press, just turned around. This would also mean that front and rear bumper are identical, windshield is the same part as rear view window. So many parts saved by simply mirroring the vehicle in the center.

They could build just one light unit including regular front lights but also red LED's to switch to rear lights when needed.

This approach could cut the total amount of parts needed massively.

Just one bumper, one glass piece, one light unit, one side window, etc. etc.

What do you guys think?

This could be along the lines of what Elon is thinking. If you watch the official Boring Company concept art they show an autonomous shuttle bus/van that is more or less equal on both sides (not really, the "front" part is more angular):

Also the use of glass everywhere as opposed to body panels/pillars is noteworthy.

However, the question is if Elon is willing to risk safety and aerodynamics.

So if both sides are equal, I'd go for pretty angular "fronts", a bit like a bullet shape on both ends, and not overly glass heavy to have decent stiffness/safety.

In my mind I'm picturing the Cybertruck front half back to back, but this is folding steel, not using gigapresses to make castings (one for the entire vehicle or one for each end).

For safety reasons, I think the shuttle van above is only good for tunnels or for lower speed urban traffic. The moment your robotaxi drives on highways with other motorvehicles around, you need the passengers to face the direction of travel and be buckled in properly. That's my biggest gripe with your idea of "the car reverses and switches sides instantly": the passenger seats would have to swivel around and that seems like a costly design. (And it is rarely road legal to reverse direction instantly, but of course if you immediately swerve to the other lane this is not much of a concern but more like growing pains of getting used to a new technology)

I'm pretty sure the eventual design of the robotaxi will feel natural to us Tesla followers, since we know they'll want:
- safety
- reliability (less parts to break)
- cheap/easy to manufacture

This is why I'm leaning towards flat glass panels a la cybertruck, with a one piece casting for the entire car. (Basically a cuboid of pillars, with a hole above for the roof, holes on the sides for the windshields and windows and a hole below for the structural battery pack)

With enough crumple zone stuff embedded in it.

The only flaw in my design: it'll be pretty ugly. So let's see what Franz has come up with (he has worked on something not yet disclosed, he said this in his latest interview).

Exciting times!

 

[CYBRTRK420]

I thought about a more compact vehicle, with two forward facing seats in the "rear" of the vehicle and two backward facing seats in the front with a sliding door on each side. would be more compact than the concept of TBC but would most likely fit better into urban traffic.

 

[Buckminster]

Spoke to my Tesla "source" who works as an engineer the company. The accuracy of what I heard may vary from truth as of course some things they aren't privy to and also might be injecting personal opinions. Here are my bullets notes of interest:

• March 1st is definitely revealing a new vehicle. He hinted at it being the obvious thing (robotaxi capable is my take) and he's seen sketches of it. Based on his reactions, I'm betting this thing is going to blow our minds in some ways.
• Model 3 refresh is a separate thing.
• I tried to ask if this vehicle could also be a van, he just smiled and said you'll have to wait till March 1st.
• March 1st is more about battery supply than the actual vehicle.
• He thinks vehicle won't be produced for a few years as battery supply constrains everything.

More interesting notes

• 4680 pack not bottom cooled because heat transfer is towards the top so not efficient
• Would like to top cool ideally but vary materials layers in front of cooling makes it less efficient than desired
• Every few years they experiment with plastic side cooling ribbons (vs metal?) because it would be cheaper, but it never works out
• California headquarters is moving from Deer Creek buildings to former HP buildings off of Page Mill Rd (closer to civilization). Tesla keeps taking over HP buildings as the latter shrinks more and more.

Overall they seemed pretty excited about developments.

 

[MC3OZ]

This could be along the lines of what Elon is thinking. If you watch the official Boring Company concept art they show an autonomous shuttle bus/van that is more or less equal on both sides (not really, the "front" part is more angular):

Also the use of glass everywhere as opposed to body panels/pillars is noteworthy.

However, the question is if Elon is willing to risk safety and aerodynamics.

So if both sides are equal, I'd go for pretty angular "fronts", a bit like a bullet shape on both ends, and not overly glass heavy to have decent stiffness/safety.

In my mind I'm picturing the Cybertruck front half back to back, but this is folding steel, not using gigapresses to make castings (one for the entire vehicle or one for each end).

For safety reasons, I think the shuttle van above is only good for tunnels or for lower speed urban traffic. The moment your robotaxi drives on highways with other motorvehicles around, you need the passengers to face the direction of travel and be buckled in properly. That's my biggest gripe with your idea of "the car reverses and switches sides instantly": the passenger seats would have to swivel around and that seems like a costly design. (And it is rarely road legal to reverse direction instantly, but of course if you immediately swerve to the other lane this is not much of a concern but more like growing pains of getting used to a new technology)

I'm pretty sure the eventual design of the robotaxi will feel natural to us Tesla followers, since we know they'll want:
- safety
- reliability (less parts to break)
- cheap/easy to manufacture

This is why I'm leaning towards flat glass panels a la cybertruck, with a one piece casting for the entire car. (Basically a cuboid of pillars, with a hole above for the roof, holes on the sides for the windshields and windows and a hole below for the structural battery pack)

With enough crumple zone stuff embedded in it.

The only flaw in my design: it'll be pretty ugly. So let's see what Franz has come up with (he has worked on something not yet disclosed, he said this in his latest interview).

Exciting times!

Do passengers need to face the direction of travel?

My thinking is a van but with 2 rows of seats facing each other.

I would include seat belts and a large air bag in the middle.

Similar to the Zoox van, with centre opening doors.

This can be symmetrical with no defined direction of travel when operating as a RoboTaxi.

Passengers may be able to stand for low speed travel on certain routes. Standing on buses and in trains can happen. These are mostly the government owned and operated.

As a last mile delivery van it would need to have a dashboard, 1 or 2 seats facing the direction of travel. But perhaps driverless versions could follow the vechicle with the driver.

The vechicle might have a limited top speed and might now travel on highways.

 

[Christine69420]

Do passengers need to face the direction of travel?

Yes.

Or many will get car sick.

Sideways may be OK in a pinch. But robotaxis are not trains. Surprising movements of the vehicle upsets the sense of balance. A car move much more unpredictable than a train.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes.

Or many will get car sick.

Sideways may be OK in a pinch. But robotaxis are not trains. Surprising movements of the vehicle upsets the sense of balance. A car move much more unpredictable than a train.

Even when limited to slower speeds?

This is what Zoox looks like:- » Built for riders, not drivers

And this is a Munro review of Canoo:-

Facing the direction of travel can be done, but it does use the internal space less efficiently.

Canoo has forward facing seats, but it is a significantly bigger vehicle.

Zoox might be simply just a concept, and the seating configuration might limit the vehicle to speeds that are too slow?

So I will reverse my opinion, now probably closer to Canoo than Zoox.

 

[MC3OZ]

One reason for seats facing each other was the "social aspect".

But in the modern era the "social aspect" can be better achieved via video link.

That means when appropriate, the "social aspect" is optional.

So a group of any size could be in a platooning group of RoboTaxis with a shared "social aspect".

The limiting factor is now that parents with young children would not want the children travelling in a physically separate vehicle.

So if RoboTaxis were a single row of seats, 2 RoboTaxis would need to be able to physically dock together to form a single vehicle.

People are less concerned about the luggage travelling behind in a separate vehicle. If the luggage doesn't fit in, summon another RoboTaxi.

 

[Christine69420]

Even when limited to slower speeds?

Well I do not know.

I do know that some 7 seaters have a backward facing last row. And that some kids are OK sitting there and some get car sick fast. Depends on how common it is to get car sick in these situations I would guess.

I do know that I will never travel when there is a risk of sitting backwards. I don't get sick but find it too uncomfortable.

But perhaps the seats can svivel. Problem solved?

 

[MC3OZ]

Well I do not know.

I do know that some 7 seaters have a backward facing last row. And that some kids are OK sitting there and some get car sick fast. Depends on how common it is to get car sick in these situations I would guess.

I do know that I will never travel when there is a risk of sitting backwards. I don't get sick but find it too uncomfortable.

But perhaps the seats can svivel. Problem solved?

I've revised my thinking, I now don't like rear facing, I was influenced by Zoox,
I now think Zoox haven't considered car sickness, or are only intending to travel at low speeds.
And I'm not sure Zoox will ever happen.

 

[Buckminster]

Update on purpose:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625252299085082625

 

[Buckminster]

Conspiracy theory 1:

Got some of this from Matt Smith:

Elon said the future is bright:

Three letters not bright spells toy.

Investor day could therefore introduce be an upgraded supercharger (presumably not V4) for cars:

https://twitter.com/x/status/812708946225963008

Conspiracy theory 2:
Upgraded S/X will launch on the day with H/W 4.0 and rumoured new inverter which can handle the more powerful supercharger.

 

[Buckminster]

Good news imminent? Que bueno!

Mexico's top diplomat says met with Tesla brass, 'good news' imminent

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on Tuesday he met with senior executives from electric automaker Tesla, teasing that "good news" is on the way, as speculation runs high over expected high-stakes investment decisions. Ebrard met with Rohan Patel, Tesla's senior global director of...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[jkirkwood001]

...It just makes sense to build the vehicle symmetrical. Same design for front and rear end of the vehicle. Power both axles and include all wheel steering.

There would be no need for the car to reverse, make u turns or similar manuvers since it could simply switch the direction, turn the front lights into rear lights and the other way around. Essentially making a 180° turn on the spot without moving an inch. The old rear end is now the front end. Similar to some high-speed trains.

So what if... The dedicated Robotaxi will use just one casting but *not* in a unibody way. The frame will be made ot of two castings and one structural battery pack, but! the castings are identical. It is the same piece from the same press, just turned around. This would also mean that front and rear bumper are identical, windshield is the same part as rear view window. So many parts saved by simply mirroring the vehicle in the center.

They could build just one light unit including regular front lights but also red LED's to switch to rear lights when needed.

This approach could cut the total amount of parts needed massively.

Just one bumper, one glass piece, one light unit, one side window, etc. etc.

What do you guys think?

Interesting idea. Not to mention that the passenger compartment is back to back, being both more aerodynamic (no need for headroom at the back, more teardrop). Also allows for shared use semi-privacy, like trains which have seats that flip to make a 4-person grouping and your back goes against the other passenger.

 

[JupiterMan]

Interesting idea. Not to mention that the passenger compartment is back to back, being both more aerodynamic (no need for headroom at the back, more teardrop). Also allows for shared use semi-privacy, like trains which have seats that flip to make a 4-person grouping and your back goes against the other passenger.

you would also need sensor symmetry for this to work, increasing the number of cameras, and doubling the HD radar front and back. With the leaks of the new HW4 hardware there are not enough video inputs for this and only one HD radar input.. so am skeptical, unless a future HW5 will be for the Robotaxi.

Although HW4 could be adapted using separate camera feed/radar switching upline from the HW4 computer and/or different camera placement positions that could be dual purposed for either direction of travel.

 

[MC3OZ]

A true beginning – how the IRA persuaded us to invest in the US

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has opened a new door for US solar manufacturers, as one of the executives behind a US-Jordanian project to bring PV production to the US explains.

www.pv-magazine.com

For manufacturers, the bill contains tax incentives for domestic fabrication, including an increase in the investment tax credit available, from 30% to 40% for projects using domestic content, as well as production tax credits linked to specific products. But the real benefit is the timeframe, which extends the bill’s credits and incentives for 10 years, making manufacturing investment tenable for the first time.

I wondered if the IRA might contain generous subsidies for US solar panel manufacture, it seems like it does.

The next consideration if the would spur Tesla to consider local manufacture of solar panels.

It is not that likely, but still a move that would be consistent with the mission.

 

[Dwdnjck]

40,000 shares, no invite?

 

[MC3OZ]

Home HVAC is another long short.

If it was announced as a new product it would not Osborne any existing products.

Perhaps it could be built at the Buffalo factory?

I'm taking a very wide view of the mission, as well as extreme scale on automotive and energy storage, there are other products that might be useful.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Any word on the March 1 event timing?

 

[DFibRL8R]

Apparently the answer is 4pm (assume central time since it’s in Austin).

2023 Investor Day

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term ...

www.youtube.com

 

[DFibRL8R]

Apparently the answer is 4pm (assume central time since it’s in Austin).

2023 Investor Day

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term ...

www.youtube.com

Apologies, apparently it’s actually 3pm central time. (You tube link must adjust the advertised start time for whatever time zone you are in).