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Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion
- Thread starter FluxCap
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ValueAnalyst
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I have a difficult time believing that wage inflation has not yet picked up, but I guess U-8 is still not where it needs to be.
Give it another few months...
Their are as many examples of Christianity as there are of Communism and I suspect of any other religion such as Islam. Harold Laski once concluded an argument with a colleague: “Yes we are both communists, you in your way, I in Marx’s.”
Equally, there is variety in our “organized” political parties. As Will Rogers once quipped in answer to the question what organized party he adhered to, “none, I’m a Democrat.” The Republican Party is amusing to watch as McConnell tries to herd his cats in the US Senate despite Trump’s and Bannon’s valiant effort to destroy the GOP along with other U.S. institutions.
The Norwegian TMCers can better describe the content of Christian Democrat for themselves. My WAG below is what Christian Democrat might mean in the U.S. context by pointing to personalities who might fit the label.
One purely objective
comment on Christianity should be noted at the start. I take the essence of that belief to be explicated in the Sermon on the Mount version which many of us non-believers admire greatly. Of course true believers will immediately target anything I might say from here on. However, a great friend and staunch Catholic who on his deathbed cursed me again for opposing the Shrub’s war on Iraq, frequently claimed Christ was the first communist. Any discussion of what God is or says in my view is blasphemy, including this statement and mine just now. So if the Christian Right takes issue with this definition of Christianity, that too is blasphemy.Nancy Pelosi might be called a Christian Democrat. She is Catholic but her politics were probably more influenced by her father who was Mayor of Baltimore if I remember correctly. I don’t know what her position is on abortion. She is probably wishy, washy like many American Catholics. I would be surprised if she were opposed to contraception. Among the Catholic mainstream there is a chasm between the American Bishops and the Sisters of Mercy, for example.
Bernie Sanders who has overtly admired Denmark’s social welfare system might fit the label, though Humanistic Democrat might be a better description since he was markedly opaque about his religious heritage during the 2016 campaign. Perhaps that is because American Jewry is somewhat divided now on the Palestinian question and many more skeptical about Netanyahu’s hard line approach on the Iran deal. There is a perceptual shift in ultra-Zionists to the Republican Party from voting with the Democrats.
Pope Francis would also fit if he were dumb enough to want to associate with any political party, which he isn’t. But this is my pigeonholing. He is somewhat wishy, washing on the LGBT thing compared, say, to the Religious Right in this country. The Sermoner on the Mount might be more forthright. The Pope is more traditional on abortion and probably flexible on birth control. One must remember he is a transitional figure fighting great headwinds within the Church hierarchy. Otherwise, anyone worried about peace, the poor or Mother Earth has a staunch comrade.
A final word about my indoctrination into Christianity. My father’s father was a lay preacher in the Christian Church a Baptist-like sect. Hence, as I have said elsewhere, my Dad used to inveigh against Catholics for “sprinkling.” “The word baptism comes from the Latin baptizo which means immersion.” Now I would call this distinction trivial, akin to what Jaroslav Pelikan called traditionalism, “the dead faith of the living,” as opposed to tradition, “the living faith of the dead.”
That distinction from a well-known Christian scholar is useful to distinguish among varieties of Christianity. (Also, with no disrespect for the man, his name is the funniest ever. Jaroslav by itself is quite common, evoking a stalwart Slav, but the combination with the most ridiculous looking bird on land, especially when it walks? No wonder we never see swimming with pelican parks similar to those with dolphins. “Whatever happened to your stomach, sir, and why are you bleeding to death? A pelican got me.”)
Note, this is not argument by metaphor, my favorite, but example. I'm switch hitting.
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I liked DragonWatch's
Republican Anarchists might also work since that is the end result of the individualistic culture we have. (I am dumfounded by authorities seeking a motive for the recent shooting in Las Vegas. It is clearly, "see what I can do to attract your attention with my purposeless life and yours? At least I'm not on Fentenal.") Or Republican Corporatists, a transitional moniker. Or what Norman Ornstein might call Republican Kakistocrats,
There's a Word for the State of American Democracy: Kakistocracy
That is the greatest danger our Founders found with democracies.
In short we have become a mediocracy. That will certainly affect stock prices in future and portends a massive crash.
Edit: Crossposted on the Market Action Thread
Republican Anarchists might also work since that is the end result of the individualistic culture we have. (I am dumfounded by authorities seeking a motive for the recent shooting in Las Vegas. It is clearly, "see what I can do to attract your attention with my purposeless life and yours? At least I'm not on Fentenal.") Or Republican Corporatists, a transitional moniker. Or what Norman Ornstein might call Republican Kakistocrats,
There's a Word for the State of American Democracy: Kakistocracy
That is the greatest danger our Founders found with democracies.
In short we have become a mediocracy. That will certainly affect stock prices in future and portends a massive crash.
Edit: Crossposted on the Market Action Thread
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@neroden I thought your reference to others moving into relationships in PR was apropos. While my exposure is limited, I have noticed significant Chinese influence in central america and of course Venezuela from an economic standpoint. I have no doubt that any NAFTA issues with Mexico would enhance China's influence there. PR could be in a similar ecomonic situation. To make this less OT, I point out who stands to benefit from sale of solar to latin america? Who has the battery capacity other than Tesla? And, who is poised to sell cheap small BEVs? Are we throwing China into the Briar Patch?
Here is an example of the simplistic thinking characteristic of the administration to illustrate my point about the dangers to the market. Also, the essay demonstrates the Obama administration's efforts to stimulate the economy had good effect though weakened and opposed by Republicans in Congress. Again the old saw that Democratic administrations are good for stock prices and the economy still holds. At minimum as we get tax cuts revenues are likely to decline massively and here is the thinking to justify it. Another "tell" for Trump's intentions.
Donald Trump's misleading linkage between stock gains, debt
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
The impact of politics on economics is greatly exaggerated for anything less than a decade. This was true during the previous administration's term, and it is true today, and it will be true in the future.
As a counter point, for example, the economy has so far added far less number of jobs than the President's prediction of 10 million jobs divided by four years. It's trending less than half. I expect this trend to continue, and in fact worsen further into the remainder of the President's term. This is simply a result of economics and business cycles, but I'm curious how the President will answer when asked about this in the next election cycle.
This is not a political post, and that's exactly my point.
To be explicit the answer to “who”is Chinese companies in each case. From the Southern Cone (I.e. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay) one sees the Chinese dominance quite clearly. We have Canadian Solar (Chinese-emigre-owned), BYD, and a number of Chinese photovoltaic, battery, BEV, wind (onshore and offshore) as well as hydroelectric (notably Chinese Three Gorges).
Today there are BYD busses, E6 rentals and others growing rapidly in the region. They are certainly vestigial and they strongly favor cooperative deals with government entities and/or explicit government support.
Frankly Tesla is not in the lead on renewable projects in most of the world. There are many competitors, some of them very good. If we are to be serious investors we need to understand what Tesla actually is.
Tesla today is analogous to Rolls-Royce in some respects. When RR began it evolved from Royce’s electrical generators. The company for many decades was dominant in niches demanding the finest. That gradually dissipated in the decades following the death of Royce. Tesla, too, is now definitively the best of it’s type now finally facing significant competition...
Our questions as investors are largely whether Chinese companies from the bottom and German companies from the top are likely to diminish the luster of Tesla. I think Tesla will thrive more as these technologies become more broadly accepted, with market share steadily dropping but profits doing quite nicely.
Rolls-Royce delivered ICE dependability like no other, culminating in the Merlin. Then they commercialized turbine and turbojet power. It took decades to lose those leads. So it could be for Tesla.
A side note: a relative made a good business importing Royce’s generators, later adapting Rolls-Royce engines, to deploy in Brazil’s electrification more than a century ago. Now the mass market of renewables is Chinese-dominant while the top end seems to be moving to Tesla/European suppliers.
Quick question about Brazil.
My understanding is that Brazil has 30-40% of their vehicles using Ethanol (sugarcane). How do you see that influencing EV adoption? Especially since most of the sugarcane is locally grown and sourced, and subsequently there is a “virtuous” feedback loop to maintain Ethanol as a primary fuel source for cars in Brazil.
Also, one of the key reasons (IMHO) why Tesla is poised to take off is their funding of infrastructure—superchargers, etc... Are any of the Chinese companies doing this in regard to their EV market in South America?
The issue I am wondering about is that a big part of Tesla’s success is that they have figured out that the infrastructure to EVs is the key to their adoption. Given Brazil’s reliance on ethanol—home grown—would they even have a desire to retire their ICE vehicles, given that it would cut into production and consumption? One can even argue that using Ethanol is carbon neutral, so environmentally sound as well, eliminating that arguement for EVs.
Reciprocity
Active Member
When U8 peaks, I'm feeling like that will be what pushes is into at the very minimum a sizable correction. Around 7%. Not to say under employment improving will be the cause just the timing I'm using to denote a peak in the 10+ year recovery where it's more then likely to correct it worse. Not an advice.. gtla.
Edit: think I meant U6, which includes underemployed and marginally attached. People wanting full time work but only able to get part time work, thus employed but only marginally.
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You are precisely on point for current Brazil issues. Ethanol has been strongly supported and 27% of gasoline here is ethanol. The sugarcane production is very efficient and is powered in large part by buying cane residue. It's cleaner than gasoline. The majority of vehicles sold in Brazil are at least capable of alcohol and gasoline. All taxis. many busses and other vehicles can also use natural gas.
BEV infrastructure is non-existent in Brazil except for:
1 a handful of stations in a few major cities that were installed with impetus from Nissan when offering leaf for taxi and municipal use, but those were only tests,
2 another handful of stations installed in some shopping malls for BMW. Those are branded BMW and were to support i3 and i8 which were imported in a few hundred units.
3. installations in Fortaleza, Ceara and some other cities done in congestion with BYD and others that support a rental fleet of BYD cars plus a few non-rental BYD sales.
There do exist some attractive EV incentives at a Federal level and at some stage levels, such as Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, but thus far bureaucratic impediments have ruled so there is very little actual BEV deployment. Even things like Hyundai Ionic do not come to Brazil because the Brazilian Concessionare wants only to promote their CKD Hyundai.
I do not know enough about other South American countries to opine credibly. I do know Uruguay imports Hyundai Ionic.
I think Brazil will move to adopt BEV's rapidly once VAG, MB snd PSA are deeply committed. Mercedes has committed to making a BEV truck and a bus here within two years, and several others are working towards Busses and trucks. This market almost certainly will develop form commercial vehicles down to personal ones, with infrastructure being commercial vehicle-centric. One impediment is the presence of multiple electrical standard within Brazil, and a pretty creaky grid. Both hydroelectric and nuclear have been litigants to fossil fuels but both have also has problems. Especially in the Northeast there is growing presence of wind power which has been proving to be cheap and reliable.
Tesla accepts Model 3 reservations for Brazil, and I know of a few of us who have them. Tesla could spark widespread activity pretty quickly by making BEV's "chic". That could be naive optimism on my part.
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Art or the artistic could be defined as giving us new pictures of reality. Just a thought. Musk's vision is esthetic at its best, his management style probably not so much. I'd never work for anyone who spends 80 hours a week working even with the bonus of spending time off with kids and Hollywood types. In the latter case I hope he learned a lot from the Amber Heard experience.
I once had an extended conversation with Kip Thorne, the recent Nobel laureate in physics. I kept after this: are the three dimensions of distance really equivalent to that of time? He grew exasperated and finally said: "look, I'm into this for the esthetics of it!" That shut me up!! Of course I'd known since high school that mathematicians celebrate the "elegant" proof.
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Just now I remember what Thorne's answer was to my question. Something like, "you could reduce space-time to three dimensions, but the mathematics is too complicated."
Forty years later, because of Ilya Prigogine and a kiss from Einstein, I find this answer sufficient: without time no motion is possible. Without motion there is no energy. Without energy there is nothing. Even string theorists agree. We impose time on our experience because we are energy machines, requiring food and elimination due to the second law of thermodynamics. Finally, this is pure speculation, Einstein's theory of gravity may just be just another consequence of the second law. When bodies interact, say finally as in the relatively stable current orbit of the Moon and Earth, isn't that just another equilibrium state on the way down the energy spectrum? I believe this is what Prigogine calls metastability.
After a quick look at Wikipedia on metastability and ground state, my head is starting to hurt again so I need to take a walk. Not a random one because there is no destination, just wandering around in circles until I finally remember where our door is. Such is life, 43 perhaps?
Forty years later, because of Ilya Prigogine and a kiss from Einstein, I find this answer sufficient: without time no motion is possible. Without motion there is no energy. Without energy there is nothing. Even string theorists agree. We impose time on our experience because we are energy machines, requiring food and elimination due to the second law of thermodynamics. Finally, this is pure speculation, Einstein's theory of gravity may just be just another consequence of the second law. When bodies interact, say finally as in the relatively stable current orbit of the Moon and Earth, isn't that just another equilibrium state on the way down the energy spectrum? I believe this is what Prigogine calls metastability.
After a quick look at Wikipedia on metastability and ground state, my head is starting to hurt again so I need to take a walk. Not a random one because there is no destination, just wandering around in circles until I finally remember where our door is. Such is life, 43 perhaps?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
And he has reimposed the jones act. Why in the heck is that allowed on even exist?!
There isn't a jones act for the US mainland .
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
First of all if you believe that the high markets have any thing to do with trump being competent I'll sell you the Golden Gate Bridge for a great price, make me an offer.More records today
S&P: All-Time High +13% YTD
Dow: ATH +14% YTD
Nasdaq: ATH +22% YTD
NYSE: ATH
MidCap 400: ATH
Russell 2000: ATH
Global Dow: ATH +15% YTD
Imagine how high the markets might be if we had an ethical and competent president instead of one whose own Secretary of State said is a "moron". Even though you might claim that tiilerson didn't say that spending tens or hundreds of billions of dollars on a huge nuclear weapons expansion is obviously moronic, particularly with an imbeciles hands on the button.
Trump wanted dramatic increase in nuclear arsenal in military meeting
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said he wanted what amounted to a nearly tenfold increase in the U.S. nuclear arsenal during a gathering this past summer of the nation’s highest-ranking national security leaders, according to three officials who were in the room.
Trump’s comments, the officials said, came in response to a briefing slide he was shown that charted the steady reduction of U.S. nuclear weapons since the late 1960s. Trump indicated he wanted a bigger stockpile, not the bottom position on that downward-sloping curve.
According to the officials present, Trump’s advisers, among them the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, were surprised. Officials briefly explained the legal and practical impediments to a nuclear buildup and how the current military posture is stronger than it was at the height of the buildup. In interviews, they told NBC News that no such expansion is planned.
The July 20 meeting was described as a lengthy and sometimes tense review of worldwide U.S. forces and operations. It was soon after the meeting broke up that officials who remained behind heard Tillerson say that Trump is a “moron.”
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