Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[kenliles]

Mind you IMUHO, the tax break and budget the Reeps are talking about is a disaster for all but those at the top, individuals and corporations. (Obviously influenced by Paul Krugman.)

yes- but the bigger 'threat' to tax cuts are the T-Party (Tea > Trump) group that vehemently opposes increases in deficit - already wanting deficit cutting;
Ironically, this INCLUDES Flake! who is a very strict fiscal conservative -
The GOP is in near complete internal counter purposes and confusion- having built 3 parties under it's banner (the only coalition possible given US changing profile). It's not going to be pretty I'm afraid-- Currently I don't see how they manage to get a major tax cut bill thru - no-matter who gets the money, that kind of deficit increase is unfathomable to everyone but Trump(his normal business practice).
The political pressure to pass something on it though is tremendous and may carry some watered down version that keeps the market from freaking out.

bets on shorting volatility are now unwound- and money is on increased volatility - a position I share

as it has almost no where to go but up - and amplified with the fiscal uncertainties impending
[this doesn't mean the market will crash or even correct- but will experience increased ups and downs on attempts to predict events and effects] - also remember next year will be mid-term election uncertainties;
Expect a rough ride during what should be a fantastic Tesla growth year - and that my friends is the dilemma - can't afford to be out; but have to ride thru intermediate downs (ala current). I continue to advise- large core layer with common and DITM LEAPS; leaving trading layers to purely discretionary funds...

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm afraid-- Currently I don't see how they manage to get a major tax cut bill thru - no-matter who gets the money, that kind of deficit increase is unfathomable to everyone but Trump(his normal business practice).

Also the practice of Reagan and both Bushes! (Not sure about amounts, but the preference was there.)

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm all in favor of the budget hawks if deficit is used to squeeze the middle class and feed to top with no guarantee their bonanza will be productively invested in what we need now and in future. I'm in favor of them when productively used by progressive infrastructure broadly defined to include direct investment in people for health care, education, etc., as well as the "normal" hardware.

Of course that is the approach of Musk in building his companies, although despite some Earth bound potential, I think the Mars thing is just a tech-junky's ego trip. Of course I could be wrong. Good for insects, who may inherit the technology, but radiation for us is problematical.

 

[kenliles]

Update on Fed selection:
Here's your CEO in Chief hard at work on the matter
Trump apparently is having a hard time making up his mind for Fed chair
"<

• President Trump apparently has solidified his thinking and is now choosing between Fed Governor Jerome "Jay" Powell and Stanford economist John Taylor.
• Chair Janet Yellen also likely remains in the mix as Trump is worried that removing her might disrupt the hardy stock market rally that has taken place since his election.
• However, one source reportedly close to Trump did tell Politico that Yellen was out of the race completely.

And Trump added to the strangeness of the process when he asked Lou Dobbs, a host on Fox Business, who he thought the president should appoint. That comes just a few days after Trump asked members of the GOP leadership for a show of hands on what they thought he should do.

Dobbs said he thought Yellen was worth considering for reappointment.

"We're obviously doing very well together if you look at the markets," Trump said on the show.
>"

 

[jbcarioca]

Update on Fed selection:
Here's your CEO in Chief hard at work on the matter
Trump apparently is having a hard time making up his mind for Fed chair
"<

• President Trump apparently has solidified his thinking and is now choosing between Fed Governor Jerome "Jay" Powell and Stanford economist John Taylor.
• Chair Janet Yellen also likely remains in the mix as Trump is worried that removing her might disrupt the hardy stock market rally that has taken place since his election.
• However, one source reportedly close to Trump did tell Politico that Yellen was out of the race completely.

And Trump added to the strangeness of the process when he asked Lou Dobbs, a host on Fox Business, who he thought the president should appoint. That comes just a few days after Trump asked members of the GOP leadership for a show of hands on what they thought he should do.

Dobbs said he thought Yellen was worth considering for reappointment.

"We're obviously doing very well together if you look at the markets," Trump said on the show.
>"

I don't like the content but I do like the post.

 

[kenliles]

Breaking:
House Republicans tell Trump not to pick Yellen as Fed Chair

 

[bobinfla]

Also the practice of Reagan and both Bushes! (Not sure about amounts, but the preference was there.)

Okay, I try not to get political, but feel compelled to open my mouth on this one. Seriously? You are calling out Trump, Reagan and both Bushes for creating unfathomable deficit increases? Did our deficit not just go from about $10 trillion to $20 trillion under a president not on that list?

 

[Intl Professor]

Okay, I try not to get political, but feel compelled to open my mouth on this one. Seriously? You are calling out Trump, Reagan and both Bushes for creating unfathomable deficit increases? Did our deficit not just go from about $10 trillion to $20 trillion under a president not on that list?

Good point. Obama inherited a mess, give me that, and I will give you the stimulus package contributed to the deficit too, but was about 1/3 the amount needed for full recovery according to an economist friend of mine and Paul Krugman who made the same calculation independently at about the same time. The deficit might have been reduced if subsequent recovery efforts by the Obama Administration hadn't been frustrated by Republican efforts. One example is an infrastructure program in 2011 which might have created 1,000,000 jobs. DOA in Congress. And, of course, Obama compounded the original error by listening to Larry Summers rather than his chief economic advisor, Christina Romer, and proclaiming the recovery act was working. It was helping, but clearly inadequate.

 

[kenliles]

taking the high road
Congressman: The budget bill is a ‘stunt’ and a ‘gimmick.’ Here's why I voted for it anyway
"<
It's called a "blueprint" because in reality it's just a proposal, not an actual budget like the ones families and businesses use in the real world. After all, Washington isn't the real world.

Nevertheless, Republicans in Congress are moving forward with this budget blueprint because once it passes both chambers, Republican leadership will need just 51 votes to pass our tax reform plan in the Senate, instead of the usual 60 votes needed to pass legislation. In other words, the budget blueprint is simply a necessary procedural step required under Washington's rules to eliminate a filibuster from Democrats and move forward with badly needed tax relief for families and businesses.

"I plan to vote in support of the Senate-passed budget. Not because it's the right thing to do fiscally, but because it's the Washington gimmick needed to get tax reform done. Yes, another D.C. gimmick."
>"

 

[GoTslaGo]

taking the high road
Congressman: The budget bill is a ‘stunt’ and a ‘gimmick.’ Here's why I voted for it anyway
"<
It's called a "blueprint" because in reality it's just a proposal, not an actual budget like the ones families and businesses use in the real world. After all, Washington isn't the real world.

Nevertheless, Republicans in Congress are moving forward with this budget blueprint because once it passes both chambers, Republican leadership will need just 51 votes to pass our tax reform plan in the Senate, instead of the usual 60 votes needed to pass legislation. In other words, the budget blueprint is simply a necessary procedural step required under Washington's rules to eliminate a filibuster from Democrats and move forward with badly needed tax relief for families and businesses.

"I plan to vote in support of the Senate-passed budget. Not because it's the right thing to do fiscally, but because it's the Washington gimmick needed to get tax reform done. Yes, another D.C. gimmick."
>"

Congrats on 3000 post!

 

[comanchepilot]

Macro Econ forces are that people who can AFFORD a Model S/X will not care - and will continue to be able to afford one. . . .

Model 3 is a whole different segment.

Is there enough lithium production to satisfy the gigafactory?

there are all sorts of constraints for Tesla . . ..

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not bad... Not bad at all... U.S. Growth at Above-Forecast 3% on Consumer, Business Spending

Note that I had provided my 3.5% estimate in August (see below), before hurricanes, which were estimated to impact GDP by 0.4% to 0.8%.

I expect the initial estimate of 3Q17 GDP to come in above 3.5%.

This is in-line with my expectation that the U.S. and global GDP growth is accelerating.

 

[Lump]

This thread is for doom & gloom & President Trump bashing only, nothing positive please .

 

[kenliles]

This thread is for doom & gloom & President Trump bashing only, nothing positive please .

vvvv Fantastic vvvv

vvvv Excellent vvvvv

vvvv Lordy vvvv

vvv Cool vvv

Trump is a F-Moron

 

[neroden]

Update on Fed selection:
Here's your CEO in Chief hard at work on the matter
Trump apparently is having a hard time making up his mind for Fed chair
"<

• President Trump apparently has solidified his thinking and is now choosing between Fed Governor Jerome "Jay" Powell and Stanford economist John Taylor.

Yuck. John Taylor is famously a hypocrite who won't even follow the rule which he invented and which is named after him if it conflicts politically with this week's Republican doctrine; as a result of this sort of doctrine-driven disregard of *his own research*, he'll likely be an unmitigated disaster. I don't know anything about Powell. Perhaps he's worse.

 

[MitchJi]

Breaking:
House Republicans tell Trump not to pick Yellen as Fed Chair

"These actions have blurred the line between fiscal and monetary policy almost beyond recognition, facilitating the Obama Administration's trail of reckless spending and doing so at the borrowed time of an unsustainable national debt on the backs of the American taxpayer," the letter stated.

That must mean that they are against the trump budget and tax plan. Thank god.

 

[MitchJi]

Neuroscientist Dr. Carl Hart: People Are Dying in Opioid Crisis Because of Politicians’ Ignorance | Democracy Now!

President Trump announced Thursday that he is directing the Department of Health and Human Services to declare the opioid crisis a public health emergency—walking back his plans, announced in August, to declare it a more serious “national emergency.” The shift means the federal government will not, as of now, direct any new federal funds to address the opioid crisis, which killed 64,000 Americans last year. We speak with Columbia University psychology and psychiatry professor Carl Hart, who argues people are dying because of ignorance, not because of opioids.
Very informative interview.

At least we have Medicare and Medicaid until trump kills them.

The level hypocrisy dishonesty and ignorance are pretty amazing. The ignorance of the public is pretty amazing also.

 

[Lump]

With that out of the way how about those markets on Friday?
Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000

Congrats to those that didnt listen to Krugman, Summers & the other Liberal blabber heads & invested correctly over the last 12 months, hopefully the Dodgers can bounce back tonight so we can really celebrate along with our record highs.

 

[AlMc]

With that out of the way how about those markets on Friday?
Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000

Congrats to those that didnt listen to Krugman, Summers & the other Liberal blabber heads & invested correctly over the last 12 months, hopefully the Dodgers can bounce back tonight so we can really celebrate along with our record highs.

Disagree: Go 'Houston'

As to investing (real important part of your post) it is time to repatriate all those offshore profits and get some corporate tax reform. I don't want to get political but as an investor in many of the companies with offshore profits I admit to my bias about getting that done.

 

[EinSV]

With that out of the way how about those markets on Friday?
Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000

Congrats to those that didnt listen to Krugman, Summers & the other Liberal blabber heads & invested correctly over the last 12 months, hopefully the Dodgers can bounce back tonight so we can really celebrate along with our record highs.

Hard to give any US politicians credit especially since US stock market performance is getting trounced by the rest of the world so far this year.

Wall Street won’t tell you, but U.S. stocks are underperforming