Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[Intl Professor]

I've read elsewhere, can't remember, US doctors make on average $100,000 more than others in OECD. Part of that is the onerous cost of medical school. But then, I think all college should be free. Probably is for med school in many countries.

Kaiser is good about preventive care. Also, in some countries, there is concern about what causes disease, poverty, violent neighborhoods, pushing sugar, etc. Our record on preventable disease is at the bottom of industrialized countries. That has to cost more even if the reward system for practitioners is out of whack. How can I count the ways we are an uncivilized society? The NRA even fights doctors asking patients about guns in the household! And then there are the insurance companies, etc.

Not an expert on this, but my understanding is the French probably have the best system and for about half the cost here. No wonder the French call our markets orientation, le capitalisme sauvage. A lot of antipathy to Obamacare (aka, Romneycare, or Heritage Foundation Care) is based on any effort to humanize our system. Real politicians don't eat quiche.

 

[Turing]

Will Mueller's potential indictments have any meaningful impact on the market?
Manu Raju on Twitter

 

[navguy12]

There are loads of complaints by Canadians and the British about their systems, though they are much cheaper than ours. One of the biggest things Americans would need to adjust to is the need to wait much much longer for care. In Canada, you can't expect to have elective surgery right away. You may have to wait 6 months or more to have something that in America would occur in just a few weeks.

Canuk here, listening in.

Any time anyone I know (blood related and/or good friend) needed quick care (such as detached retina, hernia, cancer operation, open heart surgery, stroke, gall bladder), they were on the operating table that day.

Anecdotal? Yes.

But, the other side of the coin is true. If you have a situation that is not acute, you will get into a line so to speak.

I have never met any Canadian who had to file for personal bankruptcy due to a health issue (I'm sure out of 37 million of us, there will be examples).

I have met three Americans who have lost everything they own because of a health care issue (all three had/have cancers).

YMMV

 

[bdy0627]

Canuk here, listening in.

Any time anyone I know (blood related and/or good friend) needed quick care (such as detached retina, hernia, cancer operation, open heart surgery, stroke, gall bladder), they were on the operating table that day.

Anecdotal? Yes.

But, the other side of the coin is true. If you have a situation that is not acute, you will get into a line so to speak.

I have never met any Canadian who had to file for personal bankruptcy due to a health issue (I'm sure out of 37 million of us, there will be examples).

I have met three Americans who have lost everything they own because of a health care issue (all three had/have cancers).

YMMV

It will actually be a very good thing if Americans can embrace this idea of waiting however long it takes for non-urgent care. Many (most?), especially my medicaid patients, expect care and expensive imaging studies - CT, MRI, surgery, you-get-the-picture, yesterday. Believe it or not, they are often the most demanding patients I see. It will be a paradigm shift to get Americans away from the idea that they are entitled to whatever care they feel they need/want when they want it. But I think it is a much needed change since our current approach is not sustainable.

 

[EinSV]

Moving from market thread ....

The mortgage interest deduction is the last great bastion of the realtors' lobby. Who pays a 6% mark-up for any similar, relatively over-priced, hand-holding service? It's why Tesla eschews dealers.

Redfin, local FSBO operators, Trulia, Zillow , etc. are disrupting the realtor cabal. Check out using alternate tax years taking the standard deduction and aggregating mortgage interest, property taxes, charitable deductions etc. in the subsequent (off) year(s).

IMO going after the mortgage interest and state and local tax deductions is a combination of the Koch brothers and patronage politics (shifting tax benefits from the blue coasts to the red states) but to avoid getting sidetracked into the forbidden politics zone I think we do agree that tax benefits such as tax advantaged retirement accounts are not potentially up for grabs by politicians over the long term.

 

[kenliles]

some updates-
futures now strongly pricing in a rate hike in Dec (per Fed statements, this is a likely event)

that sets up some interesting Yield curve effects- we just touched a low again on the 10-2 year curve (flattest in 10 years);
the combination bears close watch-

finally- unsustainable gap opening between consumer expectations and real consumption;
this will have to correct with more consumption or lowered expectations or both

as we discussed back a few pages, consumer real-estate was approaching bubble-time in a number of markets (while not on a nationwide basis). This is showing up now as a cooling in those markets, flattening the growth in sales overall - that's the healthiest way to avoid bubble pops-

All in all (with some other data)- maintaining a Yellow alert for next weeks and months; albeit a bit stronger alert now than before- not moving yet to Orange hard watch.

Cautionary factor is the market reaction to anticipated tax cuts- much of the growth since the election will abate if it looks like that won't happen- and it's anticipation has stepped up more recently - be careful out there Boyz n Girlz

 

[neroden]

I've read elsewhere, can't remember, US doctors make on average $100,000 more than others in OECD. Part of that is the onerous cost of medical school. But then, I think all college should be free. Probably is for med school in many countries.

Yes, in most countries medical school is free to those who qualify for admission. The US is an insane outlier.

The result, IMO, is that doctors educated in the US are money-grubbers trying to make extra money to pay off onerous student loans, while doctors educated in other countries are relaxed and behave like medical professionals. At this point nearly all the doctors I and my family see are foreign-educated, with only a few exceptions.

 

[kenliles]

just in and right on cue (see above)
Pending home sales drop 2.6% in August; Top Realtors economist warns housing market 'stalled'

 

[kenliles]

Trump administration health reps told not to participate in Obamacare outreach nationwide: Reports

 

[kenliles]

Here's a graphical look at relative price-i-ness of investment options historically referenced;
US equities still look strong due to low interest rates- macro risk watch- for this to mitigate over coming months...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

some updates-
futures now strongly pricing in a rate hike in Dec (per Fed statements, this is a likely event)
View attachment 250359
that sets up some interesting Yield curve effects- we just touched a low again on the 10-2 year curve (flattest in 10 years);
the combination bears close watch-
View attachment 250360

finally- unsustainable gap opening between consumer expectations and real consumption;
this will have to correct with more consumption or lowered expectations or both
View attachment 250358
as we discussed back a few pages, consumer real-estate was approaching bubble-time in a number of markets (while not on a nationwide basis). This is showing up now as a cooling in those markets, flattening the growth in sales overall - that's the healthiest way to avoid bubble pops-
View attachment 250362

All in all (with some other data)- maintaining a Yellow alert for next weeks and months; albeit a bit stronger alert now than before- not moving yet to Orange hard watch.

Cautionary factor is the market reaction to anticipated tax cuts- much of the growth since the election will abate if it looks like that won't happen- and it's anticipation has stepped up more recently - be careful out there Boyz n Girlz
View attachment 250363

Could you please define what the following means:

"Yellowalert for next weeks and months"

 

[Lump]

Looking back looks like President Trump striking a deal with the Dems set off another powerfull unexpected rally.
"Trump Trade 2"

 

[neroden]

It is certainly possible that the markets think that Trump consistently working with Schumer and Pelosi would be a relief. I mean, I would consider it a relief.

 

[kenliles]

Could you please define what the following means:

"Yellowalert for next weeks and months"

Currently tied up out of town
Check out post #1248 in this thread
Search on Red Alert
Yellow Orange Red scale

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Currently tied up out of town
Check out post #1248 in this thread
Search on Red Alert
Yellow Orange Red scale

Thank you. I agree with your conclusion.

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm really getting depressed by national news. Here's a response.

Racism and Puerto Rico

Background: We should look for obvious differences between the situation in Puerto Rico compared to what was the US response regarding Haiti and Katrina, on the one hand, and Houston/Florida comparisons.

Trump feels the heat:

Donald Trump's White House feels heat on Puerto Rico - CNNPolitics

FEMA’s Timeline for Virgin Islands and P.R., Just the Facts, Mam:

Overview of federal efforts to prepare for and respond to Hurricane Maria | FEMA.gov

Interview with Russell Honore, commander of military response to Katrina—also describes different logistic situation:

Puerto Rico Relief Effort Replays Scene From Katrina, Retired General Says

Trump on San Juan Mayor: Trump called San Juan’s mayor a weak leader. Here’s what her leadership looks like.

Questions:

1. Why late Jones Act waiver in case of P.R.?
2. Why is Puerto Rico not a state? Votes Democratic?
3. What is ethnic makeup of the population? Mostly Hispanic?
4. Was Haiti response so much better because we knew they had weak infrastructure, and/or a black Christian president? Was US response racially oriented that time and now in P.R.?
5. Would this administration be well served by an affirmative action program at the top?
6. How long will the American people put up with a TV president? Reagan, at least, had some top advisors—especially James A. Baker.
7. It is clear from Trump’s remarks on Price’s resignation he is more concerned about political optics (“he’s a good man>3”) than moral failure, especially hipocrisy.

When I was near the age of former students at UC, Santa Barbara, and a few of the younger faculty, I would go back to UC Santa Barbara to consort with them in sometimes drunken state. My favorite then called himself “The King of the Area.” When called up for National Guard service to deal with the Watts riots, he stocked up on a few cases of beer and drove down to L.A. with his buddies. I was dubbed the “Ambassador from Sacramento,” while a local beauty was called “The Duchess of Cleanser.” We once asked “The King” what form of government he represented. Imitating W.C. Fields he answered, “An Hypocrisy my dears.”

We’ve got one now, but far less humorous than “The King of the Area.”

 

[dc_h]

some updates-
futures now strongly pricing in a rate hike in Dec (per Fed statements, this is a likely event)
View attachment 250359
that sets up some interesting Yield curve effects- we just touched a low again on the 10-2 year curve (flattest in 10 years);
the combination bears close watch-
View attachment 250360

finally- unsustainable gap opening between consumer expectations and real consumption;
this will have to correct with more consumption or lowered expectations or both
View attachment 250358
as we discussed back a few pages, consumer real-estate was approaching bubble-time in a number of markets (while not on a nationwide basis). This is showing up now as a cooling in those markets, flattening the growth in sales overall - that's the healthiest way to avoid bubble pops-
View attachment 250362

All in all (with some other data)- maintaining a Yellow alert for next weeks and months; albeit a bit stronger alert now than before- not moving yet to Orange hard watch.

Cautionary factor is the market reaction to anticipated tax cuts- much of the growth since the election will abate if it looks like that won't happen- and it's anticipation has stepped up more recently - be careful out there Boyz n Girlz
View attachment 250363

I think the fed has a great opportunity here. Leave short rates alone and sell off their mortgage and government notes a little faster. Normalize the yield curve, improve bank profits and slow down speculation. They usually don't have much control of longer term rates, which may have caused them to oversteer in the past.

 

[Lump]

Since this thread is supposed to be about markets, congrats to those that didn't bet wrong or were under invested.

Q3 ends at records.
S&P: All-Time High
Nasdaq: All-Time High
NYSE: All-Time High
S&P Mid-Cap 400: All-Time High
Russell 2000: All-Time High

 

[Intl Professor]

The credibility of the U.S. government is in question and will eventually reach a point when it impacts the market. Here's an additional response from cultural leaders which will have an impact. Lin-Manuel Miranda Says Trump Is ‘Going Straight to Hell’

I am especially concerned when the next wave of incompetence comes to the fore. What happens when cholera and other diseases of disasters, malaria, or God forbid, ebola breaks out in Puerto Rico? How will the leaderless Department of Health and Human Resources respond? With the quickness, as my black friends say, as in our assistance with the Ebola crisis in Africa, or with diatribes about the responsibiity of Puerto Ricans to take care of it themselves?

I am really getting outraged at the incompetence of our government, and that damn tax bill will not help. The Russians have done a great job using the weight of our weaknesses against us. Smart judo from Putin with a black belt.

 

[Lump]

Since President Trump has brought the end of the world upon its a good thing my wife spent some of our market gains at Costco on Thursday & bought several bottles of my favorite Scotch so I can celebrate the record highs tonight....Cheers!