Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[DragonWatch]

gD it guys/gals, just when I thought I understood the economy, you force me to spell and learn the definition of a new word:-( Keynesian wtfo Keynesian economics - Wikipedia ~ just to prove I can use the web to look things up. Oh, the "o" in my acronym stands for "over" ~ carry over from my real job days

Here is something that has been rattling around in the back of my head since the Greenspan years, and long lines at the fossil fuel pumps. Granted, if you are less than forty-five years of age, besides clueless, you have no idea what a gas pump looks like if you are driving a Tesla or other EV The Real Reason Workers Can’t Get A Raise This article presents another view/point. I find it interesting how two key non-elected governmental agencies can impact the economy like the Fed, and. . .

It has taken me awhile to toss this out for discussion because what I really wanted to say drew blood between my yen and my yang or is that :-(

 

[Tenable]

Absolutely true. Been there, done that. Learned my lesson the hard way.

I loaded up prior to an ER in Q3, the data supported it, TSLA showed a profit and I lost HUGE. Sadly, many of us have to get burned before we make reasonable decisions. The market is one hell of a teacher.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lesson from all of this - buy and hold...

 

[NicoV]

I loaded up prior to an ER in Q3, the data supported it, TSLA showed a profit and I lost HUGE. Sadly, many of us have to get burned before we make reasonable decisions. The market is one hell of a teacher.

I’ve been investing in tech stocks for over 20 years. I assumed that my technical background gave me an edge over the rest of the population. In those 20 years, I learned that my analysis of the competive landscape was mostly right (except for a small stock with ticker AAPL). I learned that not only the analysis needs to be right, also the timing needs to be right. Even when I was 100% right in my analysis even on a short time horizon like just before earnings, I never found any correlation between my analysis and the stock movement after the ER. I now invest in such a way that I can survive a 50% price drop over a 2 year horizon without being wiped out.
BTW, compared to the stocks I was heavily investedin over those 20 years, TSLA is a very stable stock. I don’t want to scare anybody here, but take a look at the stock price of AMD and SoiTec over the last 20 years if you want to know the price movements I’ve experienced.

 

[NicoV]

Lesson from all of this - buy and hold...

... without margin.

 

[Causalien]

Just found out last night that my Brokeridge forcibly liquidated well over half of my tesla stock position because of outstanding margin call which occurred during the last downturn.

I’m simply devastated.

I will be selling the rest of my tesla position today but will continue to hold the few calls that I have left.

If and only if Tesla drops below $280 then I will consider buying it again Otherwise I’m out for good With steep losses

Sorry to hear that.

If you ever pass by Vancouver. Steak and beer is on me.

 

[theschnell]

Really sad to hear what happened to you TT007.

Tesla just doesn’t scale like technology companies and the pace of stock increases reflects that, although I certainly think we’re due for another step up once M3 really gets rolling.

Anyway, in regards to Macro, it seems to me we could pull back at any time, but that the more likely scenario is that we keep trudging higher for another couple of years at least, maybe as much as 3 - 5 years. Then a major bust similar to 2008 / 2009.

What do you guys think? Can we hold out that many years? I actually think a recession in the next 6 - 12 months would be much healthier, but I just don’t see that happening.

 

[ls7corvete]

Really sad to hear what happened to you TT007.

Tesla just doesn’t scale like technology companies and the pace of stock increases reflects that, although I certainly think we’re due for another step up once M3 really gets rolling.

Anyway, in regards to Macro, it seems to me we could pull back at any time, but that the more likely scenario is that we keep trudging higher for another couple of years at least, maybe as much as 3 - 5 years. Then a major bust similar to 2008 / 2009.

What do you guys think? Can we hold out that many years? I actually think a recession in the next 6 - 12 months would be much healthier, but I just don’t see that happening.

Really sad to hear what happened to you TT007.

Tesla just doesn’t scale like technology companies and the pace of stock increases reflects that, although I certainly think we’re due for another step up once M3 really gets rolling.

Anyway, in regards to Macro, it seems to me we could pull back at any time, but that the more likely scenario is that we keep trudging higher for another couple of years at least, maybe as much as 3 - 5 years. Then a major bust similar to 2008 / 2009.

What do you guys think? Can we hold out that many years? I actually think a recession in the next 6 - 12 months would be much healthier, but I just don’t see that happening.

Agree with all of this.

I am more leveraged that I want to be right now, but waiting for M3 to get up to speed. Once that happens, If my finances otherwise allow it, I plan to move to all shares. I dont expect TSLA to really take off for 3-5 years, I am hoping for them to really tackle the enegery sector.

Though I am more leveraged than I want to be now, I have been much more leveraged in the past, I feel for TT007, I have been burned too (not TSLA though).

I am young, a couple year recession does not mean much to me.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I was listening to Ray Dalio on a podcast recently, talking about how he lost a fortune early in his career. He correctly assessed the Latin American debt situation (which few saw coming), but was incorrect about how the market and the economy would respond to it.

Life is too multi-layered and complicated to understand. The most intelligent among us can only understand pieces of it at a time. The market is an emergent phenomenon, and no one fully understands why it does what it does, not even the largest players.

Good luck to all, and stay resilient!

 

[nesgoomba]

they tried calling me but could not reach me. I had $7.2 million margin loan and they told me the amount was too large for them to wait
so they liquidated well over half of my position at a loss. sadly, I had bought even more stock just before the ER
I ended up liquidating all of my Tesla stock at the open today for a total loss of $5.3 million since all my buying before ER had pushed up my cost basis steeply.
I only have less than 10% of my original capital left. I lost over 90% of my total capital. I am shell shocked and have never ever taken these kind of huge losses before
I will stay on the sidelines and hope for a pullback to $280 before I can gather the courage to pull the trigger on TSLA again
let this be a cautionary tale for all those who go on margin
I will never go on margin ever again and maybe stay out of the stock market for the rest of the year

lol damn wow.. I bet you pooped your pants a little. Regardless of your lossess, you are still a milliionaire.

 

[nesgoomba]

It is no one fault but elon musk. his fake news is what caused his stock to go no where for months. If elon kept his promise, we would see upper 400 by now

 

[bdy0627]

It is no one fault but elon musk. his fake news is what caused his stock to go no where for months. If elon kept his promise, we would see upper 400 by now

Actually, I think the only production number he promised was 10,000/week Model 3 by end of 2018.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

@theschnell

Inflation has run up, and although the Fed has so far been raising rates only gradually, if oil prices continue their run soon, as I expect, then the Fed may have to accelerate rates, which would likely ignite a recession at some point this year or early next. Hope this helps.

 

[nesgoomba]

Just found out last night that my Brokeridge forcibly liquidated well over half of my tesla stock position because of outstanding margin call which occurred during the last downturn.

I’m simply devastated.

I will be selling the rest of my tesla position today but will continue to hold the few calls that I have left.

If and only if Tesla drops below $280 then I will consider buying it again Otherwise I’m out for good With steep losses

look, look at the charts. strong bounce right after your broker liquidated your position. what a scammy broker. they probably know something that we don't. lol if a broker liquidate your position, you know it is at the bottom of a dip.

 

[nesgoomba]

Actually, I think the only production number he promised was 10,000/week Model 3 by end of 2018.

i don't know. i hope what he promised will come true.

 

[Causalien]

I was listening to Ray Dalio on a podcast recently, talking about how he lost a fortune early in his career. He correctly assessed the Latin American debt situation (which few saw coming), but was incorrect about how the market and the economy would respond to it.

Life is too multi-layered and complicated to understand. The most intelligent among us can only understand pieces of it at a time. The market is an emergent phenomenon, and no one fully understands why it does what it does, not even the largest players.

Good luck to all, and stay resilient!

I find that to predict the correct movement of a stock for a given timeline. one must consider the whole market's data. Which means bond, options, futures, currency, politics, social dynamics... you get the idea.

Most new entrants think action/reaction. might be true in vaccum, but the world is filled with hamburgers.

 

[Starno]

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

@theschnell

Inflation has run up, and although the Fed has so far been raising rates only gradually, if oil prices continue their run soon, as I expect, then the Fed may have to accelerate rates, which would likely ignite a recession at some point this year or early next. Hope this helps.

I think by middle of next year.
But I'm preparing for this year eventually.

 

[dhrivnak]

I was listening to Ray Dalio on a podcast recently, talking about how he lost a fortune early in his career. He correctly assessed the Latin American debt situation (which few saw coming), but was incorrect about how the market and the economy would respond to it.

Life is too multi-layered and complicated to understand. The most intelligent among us can only understand pieces of it at a time. The market is an emergent phenomenon, and no one fully understands why it does what it does, not even the largest players.

Good luck to all, and stay resilient!

Which is why I would never do stocks on margin and hate any debt in general. If I can’t pay cash then I will not buy.

 

[sundaymorning]

I don’t see a recession anytime soon, even when the Feds raises rates, it will be incremental in small bits, which is insignificant to the overall health of the economy. The US jobs reports is continually stellar, the healthiest we’ve been within the last 30-40 years, this is driven by healthy GDP across the board from the US to Asia.

Additionally, new markets such as marijuana are increasing tax revenues for the US government, which results in increase wages for many state and federal employees. The interest rates are a means to slow down inflation, such as in the housing sector, maintaining a healthy interest rate can also help when the economy or when the market pulls back to stimulate more spending.

Until we get solid GDP data showing a slowdown, coupled with a receding jobs numbers, I’ll be in the bull camp. Right now, we’re just too healthy to even consider a recession. In short, it’s good that the Feds are able to take advantage of this healthy economy and be proactive, as oppose to being reactive (i.e 2008). This helps the economy tremendously when we actually do enter a recession, because by then, we are expecting it and will know exactly which levers to pull in order to bring us back on track. Due to this, IMO the next recession will be briefer and smaller than many will expect, unless housing crashes again and the government needs another $700 billion...

 

[Off Shore]

Additionally, new markets such as marijuana are increasing tax revenues for the US government, which results in increase wages for many state and federal employees.

NB marijuana is not taxed at the federal level.