Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[sundaymorning]

NB marijuana is not taxed at the federal level.

You’re right about this, it’ll benefit my state even more then.

 

[mongo]

NB marijuana is not taxed at the federal level.

Not sure what NB means (New Brunswick? )
IRS wants a cut of your income regardless of its source (see also Al Capone).

 

[Off Shore]

Not sure what NB means (New Brunswick? )
IRS wants a cut of your income regardless of its source (see also Al Capone).

Nota Bene (Latin). Old people use the term.

 

[AudubonB]

Nota Bene (Latin). Old people use the term.

<Mod> Careful with the use of profantities </Mod>

 

[Off Shore]

<Mod> Careful with the use of profantities </Mod>

Duly noted, lad.

 

[Ulmo]

Just found out last night that my Brokeridge forcibly liquidated well over half of my tesla stock position because of outstanding margin call which occurred during the last downturn.

I’m simply devastated.

I will be selling the rest of my tesla position today but will continue to hold the few calls that I have left.

If and only if Tesla drops below $280 then I will consider buying it again Otherwise I’m out for good With steep losses

This late Model 3 ramp got a lot of us in trouble. I lost $8K in poor options timing. My remaining stock position hasn't yet been liquidated, since I kept pumping my paychecks in there meeting all my calls, and now it's recovering fine. It helps I have "paycheck" size movements in my account; there's no way I could cover $7,000,000 with a single paycheck.

 

[Runarbt]

This late Model 3 ramp got a lot of us in trouble. I lost $8K in poor options timing. My remaining stock position hasn't yet been liquidated, since I kept pumping my paychecks in there meeting all my calls, and now it's recovering fine. It helps I have "paycheck" size movements in my account; there's no way I could cover $7,000,000 with a single paycheck.

My calls are down 50% from this summer (lost 23k), so this sucks. However, my stocks position is untouched and, no margin.
As long as Tsla actually deliver as promised, my calls will recover some (jan.2019), might roll them over this summer. Stocks - will keep these 10year and expect 10x. Will let stock ride aliong with Elons goals.. and cash out parts when Elon is richest man in the world. :-D

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I agree and disagree. Shorting oil now is too soon. I think the perfect timing will be during the recession as what typically happens is that high inflation, which means high oil prices, triggers high rates which triggers a recession. The goal of the higher rates is to slow down the growth of the economy in a measured and smooth way so that when the recession hits, its shorter and shallower.

I dont have like a hard and fast projection but I think everyone predicting a recession in the next 12-24 months is off. Two reasons. One, we are not going to have a recession after such huge tax cuts. Last times we had big cuts, Reagan and Kennedy, it help to extend the growth period, probably a bit of a sugar high, but staved off a recessions. Also the recovery from the last recession is just barely underway because of how deep it was and slowly we have climbed out. The work force shrank so much that we will not truly hit full employment until all those folks come back into the job market, there are also still a lot of people who are under employed. The only way that will happen is if demand for employees goes up, which it will with the massive tax cuts. I would look for U6 to bottom out then start to rise. Once you see that combined with higher wages that are actually higher, not this 2% crap, then you will finally be pulling large numbers of folks of their couches and less people will be under employed. I think a few months maybe 6 months of that U6 number going back up and wages rising at the same time, that will be the main thing I look at.

With every recession you can see employment bottoms out and then starts to rise:
U6 Unemployment Rate

What makes this one different is so many people left the work force, the both things will need to happen. People will need to come back into the work force (work force participation rate) and unemployment will have to start going up consistently with wage rates increasing. Dont be fooled by the unemployment rate going up while people get back into the work force. The unemployment rate is useless right now, its not a measure of anything and it should go up as people reenter the work force. If people do not reenter the workforce, then wages will spike quickly, which should draw people in from the sideline. I just do not see a chance for a recession when we can barely manage inflation that is above a flat line.

I agree in general with VA that oil is going higher for next year or two while inflation and demand grows. That will be one of the main triggers of the recession. When it will happen is less important then if you can position yourself in time. I dont want to lose 30% of money while I wait for the recessions to knock down oil.

I am still debating Oil or Oil companies in terms of what to short. I will more then like just buy SCO, set a stop loss and limit order and call it a day. I am not good enough at the underlying trades required to fully capitalize, but that should be enough to hedge my Tesla during the down turn.

Carrying over from the oil thread.

You make great points on employment. If folks come back to labor pool, then I agree with you. That if is the reason I have a yellow inflation rating, not red, and haven't sold anything yet, but instead positioned for late-stage economic expansion.

 

[Reciprocity]

Carrying over from the oil thread.

You make great points on employment. If folks come back to labor pool, then I agree with you. That if is the reason I have a yellow inflation rating, not red, and haven't sold anything yet, but instead positioned for late-stage economic expansion.

I think think that it should be part of any recession talk. Its one of the biggest components and seems to be a leading indicator if you look at the link I sent. No one can time a recession, but I think there are neon lights that start to go on when true full employment is achieved AND wages go up consistently for some time. Obviously this leads to the inflation you talk about the most because employment is a huge part of the equation. One thing I left out is productivity, which could help stave off inflation, but you have to see that in the employment numbers which is not guaranteed as wages rise. I think you will and I think this will keep inflation tame for a while longer then maybe you do. Also one curve ball is the baby boomers which start to retire this year and next. This could also buy some time as it will be a deflationary effect. Retires tend to spend less or saying it another way, they tend to be more frugal.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think think that it should be part of any recession talk. Its one of the biggest components and seems to be a leading indicator if you look at the link I sent. No one can time a recession, but I think there are neon lights that start to go on when true full employment is achieved AND wages go up consistently for some time. Obviously this leads to the inflation you talk about the most because employment is a huge part of the equation. One thing I left out is productivity, which could help stave off inflation, but you have to see that in the employment numbers which is not guaranteed as wages rise. I think you will and I think this will keep inflation tame for a while longer then maybe you do. Also one curve ball is the baby boomers which start to retire this year and next. This could also buy some time as it will be a deflationary effect. Retires tend to spend less or saying it another way, they tend to be more frugal.

All great points. I hope that you prove right and I prove wrong.

 

[Reciprocity]

All great points. I hope that you prove right and I prove wrong.

Sadly, you are probably right because I am a novice at this stuff and you are the Pro. I just love bouncing this stuff of you guys because I am basically a home body and my kinds look at me crazy when I start talking about Tesla and the economy.

 

[dc_h]

Carrying over from the oil thread.

You make great points on employment. If folks come back to labor pool, then I agree with you. That if is the reason I have a yellow inflation rating, not red, and haven't sold anything yet, but instead positioned for late-stage economic expansion.

I hope you are right, but I think a lot of boomers are just retiring and dropping out when they can. Others have a skills gap and can’t work hard enough at high pressure low value add jobs. Inflation is higher risk, pushing out workers who were doing at jobs (California will have crops dying in the fields this year) and less pressure on prices due to weak dolkar and protectionism. A lot of this sugar high is going to look good in 2018, but if inflation hits 3.5 and the fed starts pulling back, housing and stocks could get hit hard. I worry the tax cut is more like fentanyl than sugar, stopping the pain of not investing in education and infrastructure.
Weak dollar will be great for Tesla in 2018. Continued deals in China and Europe, we could see more records in Norway and China hit 4 billion this year, continuing 100% yoy growth. The weak dollar is probably a big reason for delayed model S and X deliveries. We will see more pictures of lot 80 at the port of San Francisco heading overseas. I think the could increase S X sales this year to 125,000, but have shifted staff to get 3 ramp moving. Productivity on the S and X lines appears to be improving close to 20% yoy.

 

[SBenson]

they tried calling me but could not reach me. I had $7.2 million margin loan and they told me the amount was too large for them to wait
so they liquidated well over half of my position at a loss. sadly, I had bought even more stock just before the ER
I ended up liquidating all of my Tesla stock at the open today for a total loss of $5.3 million since all my buying before ER had pushed up my cost basis steeply.
I only have less than 10% of my original capital left. I lost over 90% of my total capital. I am shell shocked and have never ever taken these kind of huge losses before
I will stay on the sidelines and hope for a pullback to $280 before I can gather the courage to pull the trigger on TSLA again
let this be a cautionary tale for all those who go on margin
I will never go on margin ever again and maybe stay out of the stock market for the rest of the year

Well, maybe you should have paid a tiny bit of attention to the informed ones whom you were calling "nervous nellies" and other derogatory names.

I sincerely hope nobody else is following this person's absurdity and incurred substantial losses.

The lesson here for the rest of us is that there will always be "influential cheermongerers". Always be very careful reading their posts.

This idiot above, Julian Cox, Sleepyhead, foghat to name a few.

As alternative examples, for instance DaveT is influential. But he is not a cheermongerer at all. He is highly informed and balanced. On the other hand, there are many other cheermogerers but they are not influential. So eitherways it's not an issue.

The true toxic mix is "influential cheermongerers".

They cause a lot of damage to others.

Mods can remove or move this post where ever they like. But this is the MOST IMPORTANT piece of advice you will find on any internet forums.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
No, the immediately prior post most definitely will NOT be removed.

Rather, those with long memories will remember a sharp comment to TT007 when he first began posting from this Moderator that he needed to open his line to Private Messages (now called "Conversations"). I was disinclined to call him out publicly for his proclivity to make rash statements that included calls to follow his trading.
He refused such a request, and I regret now that I did not follow through with harsher actions. This sorry debacle, however, now has come to its not-unexpected ending and it will serve as a permanent warning to others:

If any others come to this forum espousing the high-volume, high-risk actions that we saw with this poster, he or she will find access to the Investors' Sector noticeably curtailed. THIS Moderator is from the old-school, and believes "Investing" and "Trading" not to be confused with each other. There will remain a "Market Action" thread, and I am under no illusion that many of you will continue to try to beat the market in timing. Regardless, you may be assured that I also consider such trading to be highly remunerative.


But only to your brokers.

 

[Causalien]

Not sure what NB means (New Brunswick? )
IRS wants a cut of your income regardless of its source (see also Al Capone).

There are no New Brunswick Weed. Vancouver weed and Montreal weed. Remember that.

Everywhere I go in the world, ppl's eyes lit up when I say I am from Canada. Then, upon learning I am citizen of the Pothead's Republic of Vancouver, they start foaming at the mouth for some of those "pristine" Vancouver special grass.

 

[ggr]

For the last few years I have made a habit of reading Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter, mostly written by Warren Buffett. I like his no-nonsense readability. Here is this year's:
www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf

 

[30seconds]

For those who may not work close to the corporate Tech sector in the US - Tesla Model S and X are easily the most popular luxury cars among execs.

Take that as you will.

 

[DaveT]

For the last few years I have made a habit of reading Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter, mostly written by Warren Buffett. I like his no-nonsense readability. Here is this year's:
www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf

Buffett has got a lot of wisdom. I’ve listened to hundreds of hours of video interviews of him via YouTube and other sites. And I’m always looking forward to what he’s going to say.

 

[hobbes]

Well, maybe you should have paid a tiny bit of attention to the informed ones whom you were calling "nervous nellies" and other derogatory names.

I sincerely hope nobody else is following this person's absurdity and incurred substantial losses.

The lesson here for the rest of us is that there will always be "influential cheermongerers". Always be very careful reading their posts.

This idiot above, Julian Cox, Sleepyhead, foghat to name a few.

As alternative examples, for instance DaveT is influential. But he is not a cheermongerer at all. He is highly informed and balanced. On the other hand, there are many other cheermogerers but they are not influential. So eitherways it's not an issue.

The true toxic mix is "influential cheermongerers".

They cause a lot of damage to others.

Mods can remove or move this post where ever they like. But this is the MOST IMPORTANT piece of advice you will find on any internet forums.

Want to give you a like and a strong disagree at the same time, so I guess I have to be more verbose.

You obviously got a point and I often was annoyed by TT007 for the same reasons, too. But you just don´t hit somebody lying on the ground, especially when he is as honest as TT007 is at this point so we can all learn from his mistakes. It is not like he hurt others to gain something from it - he hurt himself the most. Hindsight is 20/20 and it would have been better everybody (including myself) had taken more time arguing against over-bullish theses before it was too late.

 

[sdtslafan]

Well, maybe you should have paid a tiny bit of attention to the informed ones whom you were calling "nervous nellies" and other derogatory names.

I sincerely hope nobody else is following this person's absurdity and incurred substantial losses.

The lesson here for the rest of us is that there will always be "influential cheermongerers". Always be very careful reading their posts.

This idiot above, Julian Cox, Sleepyhead, foghat to name a few.

As alternative examples, for instance DaveT is influential. But he is not a cheermongerer at all. He is highly informed and balanced. On the other hand, there are many other cheermogerers but they are not influential. So eitherways it's not an issue.

The true toxic mix is "influential cheermongerers".

They cause a lot of damage to others.

Mods can remove or move this post where ever they like. But this is the MOST IMPORTANT piece of advice you will find on any internet forums.

In my opinion, Trendtrader007 serves a very important purpose in the Tesla community. As with anything, there are extremes in both directions, ranging from Mark Spiegel on the negative end to Trendtrader007 on the positive end. We as investors should pay attention to our own risk tolerances and see where along the spectrum we are most comfortable. But we should all be free to voice our opinions and we should listen to others. I agree that Trendtrader007 views are extreme. But we are all adults and it is up to us to make responsible decisions. And it is very valuable to have a member who is as bullish as Jim Chanos is bearish. It brings balance to the force Lets remember that Jim Chanos recently said Tesla is worth ZERO!!! We need guys like Trendtrader007, he serves a very important purpose.