Tesla Model 3 Production Schedule

[MikeDog77]

It is clear Tesla's "First Production" will be the extended range, single motor and with the premium upgrade bringing the First Production starting price to $50,000 (with delivery fee).

My educated guess is they will fulfill all the orders in the USA (West coast to east coast) before starting a 2nd production run. I do not think they will fulfill any orders outside of the USA prior to a 2nd production run.

My question is, what will the second production run be? I personally want the extended range M3, WITHOUT the premium upgrade. My hope is this will be the 2nd batch of cars they make, since its starting price of $45k would be the next highest possible.

I would think they will then once again go from West Coast to East coast on a 2nd production run before starting a 3rd batch of cars which would be the 220 mile $35,000 option. Might squeeze a $40k list price in there of the small battery with the premium upgrade as well.

Do we know how many production lines they will have up and running? I guess one thought is they have everyone working on 1 or 2 lines and then keep 1 line going with the "First Production" configuration until all of those orders are fulfilled in the world.(outside of right sided driving). That certainly would maximize the profits and keep the line running, untouched for months, if not years. Then Tesla could start a second, 3rd, 4th...ect line that would be focused on the other configurations.

More than anything the answers to these questions and how Tesla will navigate "Production Hell" will give us a better idea of when we are going to get the car we want. I wish Tesla was more transparent and would shed some light onto what their plan is.

 

[Waiting4M3]

What does your delivery estimator say? Mine is this:

I reserved online. Others who reserved in store shows schedule 1 month ahead of me, and current owners show schedule 1 month ahead of the in-store reservations. The $35K 220mi model will be available as early as Dec. I imagine the $44K version without the $5K PUP will be available as well, if your spot in the reservation queue is far ahead enough

 

[smalltownguy]

My educated guess is they will fulfill all the orders in the USA (West coast to east coast) before starting a 2nd production run. I do not think they will fulfill any orders outside of the USA prior to a 2nd production run.

Why would you think no orders outside the US in first production? That seems like a huge mistake for a world wide company.


edit, Appears you are correct about International orders. Still seems strange.

 

[amb3rgris]

From the FAQ

Model 3 Reservations FAQ

Which future options will be made available to order, and when?
We are planning to introduce the following options in the coming months:

Fall 2017: White interior option, standard configuration (non-Premium Upgrades)
November 2017: Standard Battery, $35,000 car
Spring 2018: Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive

Additional options will become available over time.

 

[gambit48]

Why would you think no orders outside the US in first production? That seems like a huge mistake for a world wide company.


edit, Appears you are correct about International orders. Still seems strange.

Not strange at all if you understand how the US tax credit works.

 

[Jayc]

Not strange at all if you understand how the US tax credit works.

There are limited time EV incentives in other places too. Awfully narrow minded to think only US buyers benefit from early delivery.

 

[KarenRei]

There are limited time EV incentives in other places too. Awfully narrow minded to think only US buyers benefit from early delivery.

Indeed. Our tax credit (VAT deduction) here is renewed year to year. You never know what the next year will bring.

Right now they're saying "early 2019" for me. So that's two years of hoping that they renew it... "Late 2018" would have been only one risky year. VAT is 24% of a vehicle's price, so if VAT comes back, that'll raise the price of the vehicle by a quarter.

 

[gambit48]

There are limited time EV incentives in other places too. Awfully narrow minded to think only US buyers benefit from early delivery.

I should expound on that. Basically, it's a combo of the US tax credit, Tesla being a US based company and it's stock is traded here, most of the press is pays attention to is in the US, and logistical issues with the ramp up and delivery.

There's a reason CA buyers are getting it first and it's not just because of the tax credit.

Because Tesla will have limited supply for a while, their biggest "bang for the buck" is their current delivery strategy, which includes ignoring other countries for a while. They know they can't please everyone so this will please the most the fastest.

 

[22522]

I should expound on that. Basically, it's a combo of the US tax credit, Tesla being a US based company and it's stock is traded here, most of the press is pays attention to is in the US, and logistical issues with the ramp up and delivery.

There's a reason CA buyers are getting it first and it's not just because of the tax credit.

Because Tesla will have limited supply for a while, their biggest "bang for the buck" is their current delivery strategy, which includes ignoring other countries for a while. They know they can't please everyone so this will please the most the fastest.

There is one other reason that doubles down on the U.S. - we use 4 times the worlds average for energy, and twice as much as anyone else. Transportation is the leading catagory of use. A Model 3 will make the biggest difference here. Relatively speaking, everyone else just parks them in the garage and looks at them.

 

[KarenRei]

There is one other reason that doubles down on the U.S. - we use 4 times the worlds average for energy, and twice as much as anyone else. Transportation is the leading catagory of use. A Model 3 will make the biggest difference here. Relatively speaking, everyone else just parks them in the garage and looks at them.
View attachment 239227

1) This is not true, neither on a total energy basis (China is #1) or an energy per capita basis (Iceland is #1)

2) It would be irrelevant even if it was true, because a given vehicle does the same good elsewhere as it does in the us, all things being equal.

3) All things are not equal; US electricity is dirtier than many other countries (including mine), for example.

 

[mutle]

I should expound on that. Basically, it's a combo of the US tax credit, Tesla being a US based company and it's stock is traded here, most of the press is pays attention to is in the US, and logistical issues with the ramp up and delivery.

There's a reason CA buyers are getting it first and it's not just because of the tax credit.

Because Tesla will have limited supply for a while, their biggest "bang for the buck" is their current delivery strategy, which includes ignoring other countries for a while. They know they can't please everyone so this will please the most the fastest.

The X only took 7-8 months for the first EU deliveries. And they say that it will be more than another year for the 3.

 

[22522]

1) This is not true, neither on a total energy basis (China is #1) or an energy per capita basis (Iceland is #1)

2) It would be irrelevant even if it was true, because a given vehicle does the same good elsewhere as it does in the us, all things being equal.

3) All things are not equal; US electricity is dirtier than many other countries (including mine), for example.

Yes, this is only true with a regional comparison on a per capita basis. The region that Iceland is in swamps out Iceland's high per capita energy use. I should perhaps have stated. "In 2010, an average North American used 70% more energy than an average Eurasian, European or the Middle Easterner, and 4 times as much an average person in any other world region." But I thought that cast Canadians in a bad light. You are right, I should have kept the comparison on a regional basis and used the more precise quote. [If you are a fan of one significant figure decisions, the original phrasing was good enough to make a decision.]

Here is the reference:

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Independent Statistics & Analysis, “International Energy Statistics, Total Primary Consumption per Capita,” 2010 data from http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=44&p id=45&aid=2&cid=regions&syid=2005&eyid=2009&unit=QBT U accessed Sept. 2015.

This data could use a lot of qualification, too. Many Americans have more cars than needed, so miles are spread between multiple registered vehicles.

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, this is only true with a regional comparison on a per capita basis. The region that Iceland is in swamps out Iceland's high per capita energy use.

Our energy consumption per capita is high for a number of reasons, but a big part is that our main exports are high power consumers (so we're not really using it "ourselves"). That is, aluminum uses crazy amounts of electricity**, and fishing uses tons of fuel. Importing to Iceland (which is done for most everything) also takes lots of fuel, and one of our other largest industries is tourism, which is also very energy intensive (jets, rental cars, etc). Beyond this, in terms of primary energy we consume a lot of low-grade energy for heating (geothermal water), and our vehicles are nearly as bad mileage as the US, because lots of people have vehicles designed to deal with the long winters and to get out into the highlands. And our low population density means longer driving distances.

The US is 11th in the world in energy consumption per-capita.

*** - We don't even profit that much off of it, which is the crazy thing about the situation. Each of the aluminum smelters here uses more electricity than all homes and businesses combined in Iceland, yet they pay little to nothing in taxes. Their standard cheat is that they set up their local operations as subsidiaries highly in debt to their (foreign) parent companies, so the local companies always "operate at a loss".

 

[Dynastar]

1) This is not true, neither on a total energy basis (China is #1) or an energy per capita basis (Iceland is #1)

The chart is per-capita. There will always be sub-groups that exceed the average, and Iceland is a pretty tiny sub-group. Montana has a population three times the size, and we don't have a single Tesla store or service center. Heck, I live in the biggest town in Montana and my nearest store is about 550 miles away.

 

[22522]

The US is 11th in the world in energy consumption per-capita.

Please provide a reference. With country population included. The original graph was designed to let the U.S. look in the mirror. That is why it is used as the basis. It was not meant to blame others, like Iceland.

Tesla is making the right environmental decision in aggregate to direct Model 3 production to the US first. We are bleeding the most CO2 on average. The $35K commuter car is the one they should make first, environmentally. Commuting is a sacrifice middle class people make so their kids can live in a nice neighborhood. Another generalization.

 

[thx1139]

Didnt Elon say way back that they would try to take into account how the US tax credit will work? With that in mind I believe they would work really hard to deliver the 200,000 vehicle in the US at the very beginning of a quarter. So would expect when they are getting close to delivering that 200,000th vehicle they will shift where deliveries will occur until the start of the next quarter.

 

[KarenRei]

Please provide a reference.

List of countries by energy consumption per capita - Wikipedia

Country / Total energy consumption per capita per annum (kgoe/a)
1. Iceland (16882.5)
2. Trinidad and Tobago (15913.3)
3. Qatar (12799.4)
4. Kuwait (12204.3)
5. Luxembourg (8342.5)
6. Brunei (8308.4)
7. United Arab Emirates (8271.5)
8. Bahrain (7753.7)
9. Canada (7379.6)
10. Oman (7187.7)
11. United States (7164.5)

Tesla is making the right environmental decision in aggregate to direct Model 3 production to the US first.

Not in the slightest, and I already explained why.

2) It would be irrelevant even if it was true, because a given vehicle does the same good elsewhere as it does in the us, all things being equal.

3) All things are not equal; US electricity is dirtier than many other countries (including mine), for example.

If Tesla really wanted to help the environment, they'd stop ignoring Iceland and put in even the remotest sort of effort here - a country with the second-highest rate of EV adoption in Europe, the third highest gas prices in the world (wastefully imported from overseas), and almost 100% renewable energy (overwhelmingly geothermal and hydroelectric). Every EV in use here does a lot more good than it does in the US, which is still a third powered by coal, a third by natural gas, and (depending on what you think of it) 20% by nuclear; all renewables combined in the US in 2016 were only 16%.

It would take only the most minimal amount of investment on Tesla's part to make Iceland the EV-adoption capitol of the world, overtaking Norway. Norway has 12 Tesla stores - give us 1. Norway has 11 service centers - give us 1. Norway has 37 superchargers - give us a handful. It doesn't take a lot.

 

[MikeDog77]

From the FAQ

Model 3 Reservations FAQ

Which future options will be made available to order, and when?
We are planning to introduce the following options in the coming months:

Fall 2017: White interior option, standard configuration (non-Premium Upgrades)
November 2017: Standard Battery, $35,000 car
Spring 2018: Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive

Additional options will become available over time.

Amber-

Thank you, I should have read the FAQ's. It appears the option I want will be available soon.

 

[S3XY]

The X only took 7-8 months for the first EU deliveries. And they say that it will be more than another year for the 3.

The X didn't have 400,000 reservations to fill.

 

[dsvick]

It is clear Tesla's "First Production" will be the extended range, single motor and with the premium upgrade bringing the First Production starting price to $50,000 (with delivery fee).

My educated guess is they will fulfill all the orders in the USA (West coast to east coast) before starting a 2nd production run. I do not think they will fulfill any orders outside of the USA prior to a 2nd production run.

I'd be very surprised if they try to fulfill all of the larger battery, PUP vehicles before starting a different configuration. In fact the FAQ seems to imply that they'll be building the base model this fall and, given the ramp schedule, there is no way they'll have built all the initial configurations desired, unless there are only a couple thousand of them.