Tesla owner configurations begin

[MonsterCarter]

Finally received a call from my not very responsive DS. Offered to schedule delivery on January 6th but I'm requesting that they deliver it to my house(since I live 2+ hours away from the nearest pick up center. So the waiting game continues as he seeks approval...

 

[Zaxxon]

Updated guesstimates since the Q4 delivery numbers just came out.

Side note: I ran a guesstimate of total production through March to ballpark whether I thought it reasonable to expect a CO non-owner to take delivery in mid-April based on cars produced against the estimated 100k reservations that may have been made before mine (was 115k at reveal, and I made mine in store early PM MST due to the crazy line) plus Tesla owners who didn't reserve but get priority. Let's call that 150k reservations/priority orders that may 'beat' mine. How many would want first production? 25%? So we'd want to be at > 37,500 cars to expect mine to be ready.

Assuming 2,645 in 2017 and a relatively even ramp from 1k/week this week to the updated-today estimated 2.5k/week the last week of March:

• 2,645 2017
• 1,000 week 1 Jan
• 1,125 week 2 Jan
• 1,250 week 3 Jan
• 1,375 week 4 Jan
• 1,500 week 5 Jan
• 1,625 week 1 Feb
• 1,750 week 2 Feb
• 1,875 week 3 Feb
• 2,000 week 4 Feb
• 2,100 week 1 Mar
• 2,200 week 2 Mar
• 2,350 week 3 Mar
• 2,500 week 4 Mar

That comes to 25,295 produced by end of Q1 2018, down from my earlier estimate of 39,000.

Given that drop to 25k produced by end of Q1 2018, I'm guesstimating that my delivery will not be in April, but mid-May.

Further, running the same ramp schedule for Q2 given the updated expectation of starting at 2,500/week and ending at 5,000/week and tilting the ramp a bit toward the end to err on the conservative side, we have:

• 25,295 total Model 3s produced at Q1 end
• 2,700 week 1 Apr
• 2,850 week 2 Apr
• 3,000 week 3 Apr
• 3,200 week 4 Apr *-point at which 37k cars total are produced, which would have been wk 1 April w/prior ramp estimate (3-wk delay given today's announcement)
• 3,400 week 1 May
• 3,600 week 2 May
• 3,800 week 3 May
• 4,000 week 4 May
• 4,150 week 5 May
• 4,300 week 1 June
• 4,500 week 2 June
• 4,700 week 3 June
• 5,000 week 4 June

Total produced in Q2 - 49,200
Total produced through Q2 - 74,495

I put this into a Google Sheet here if anyone's interested in quibbling with my assumptions.

 

[AlanSqB]

You are killing me. My res was online about 2 minutes after the site opened. I’m probably not getting mine until June then. CO/non-owner

 

[AlanSqB]

To compound the issue, I feel like lots of employees and owners that were waiting for options may switch back to first config based on this news lest they miss the credit all together or even just have to wait another 6-months to a year.

 

[Jopo43]

Those that are not the glorious owners may never see a car until 2023. I understood the if we both ordered at the same time cutting me in line but if I wanted one today and was an owner move to the front of the line....... sorry if I can't afford a $120,000 car but I did place my order almost two years ago.....thats two years before you placed yours.....this entire thing is really just starting to stink!!!

 

[Petra]

To compound the issue, I feel like lots of employees and owners that were waiting for options may switch back to first config based on this news lest they miss the credit all together or even just have to wait another 6-months to a year.

Yup. I really want the white interior and am willing to play chicken with the tax credit to try and make it happen... but if Tesla hits 200k and triggers the phase-out before the white interior is available, I'm pulling the trigger before the "bonus quarter" ends and the $7500 credit is halved.

 

[ccutrer]

To compound the issue, I feel like lots of employees and owners that were waiting for options may switch back to first config based on this news lest they miss the credit all together or even just have to wait another 6-months to a year.

If it makes you feel any better, I’m an owner that 100% is definitely waiting for AWD and white interior. And for my home (imminently) under construction to close. I’m hoping the stars all align for these events to happen in August and September, with the full $7500 tax credit available. But reducing the tax credit is the first thing to topple in the sequence.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yeah, that much I knew--did not have to research that. But I am curious that your statement that enqueue is past participle. To my knowledge, there are no verbs in the English language that designate the past participle with a prefix. Past participles generally take the -ed, -en, -t suffixes, or they are orthographic (ring become rung, or bring becomes brought.)

Personally, I think the computer reference is spot on, sort of a parallel construction to encode. It is unclear to me whether the en- prefix is an intensifier (engorge) or a placement (enrage.)

Fun stuff! (And I hope that your wait while enqueued is brief!)

Agreed. The OED calls it the past participle. English ain't easy! Many such usages have derived from Germanic tongues, especially alleged orthographic ones. Of course, English cannot match, say, French for orthography because we simply cannot agree on what is proper. In any event there are many instances of the prefix 'en' used, from encased, enslaved, to my personal favourite:
Encharged- the past participle of charge, rarely used today outside legal circles, but:
derived from the :
Old French[edit]
Etymology[edit]
en- +‎ chargier.

Verb[edit]
enchargier

1. to load (add a load to)
2. (figuratively) to burden; to give a task to

enchargier - Wiktionary

Sorry about quoting from Wikitionary. My OED is that ancient multi-volume printed version.
So, finally we can adopt that ancient definition to our modern needs:

e.g. My P85D has been encharged electrically so it is time to go for a drive.

 

[2virgule5]

Updated guesstimates since the Q4 delivery numbers just came out.



Given that drop to 25k produced by end of Q1 2018, I'm guesstimating that my delivery will not be in April, but mid-May.

Further, running the same ramp schedule for Q2 given the updated expectation of starting at 2,500/week and ending at 5,000/week and tilting the ramp a bit toward the end to err on the conservative side, we have:

• 25,295 total Model 3s produced at Q1 end
• 2,700 week 1 Apr
• 2,850 week 2 Apr
• 3,000 week 3 Apr
• 3,200 week 4 Apr *-point at which 37k cars total are produced, which would have been wk 1 April w/prior ramp estimate (3-wk delay given today's announcement)
• 3,400 week 1 May
• 3,600 week 2 May
• 3,800 week 3 May
• 4,000 week 4 May
• 4,150 week 5 May
• 4,300 week 1 June
• 4,500 week 2 June
• 4,700 week 3 June
• 5,000 week 4 June

Total produced in Q2 - 49,200
Total produced through Q2 - 74,495

I put this into a Google Sheet here if anyone's interested in quibbling with my assumptions.

Posted my own assumptions on the investor thread: General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable
They are less optimistic than yours. That been said I hope you're right
As a side benefit we are looking at probably an extra quarter of full tax credit, but also possibly at a delay for the AWD version as well.

 

[toothfixeralex]

Just got the invite. Registered address is Michigan with Alternate Address in Virginia. Will be taking delivery in VA. 4 week estimate. Model S owner. Nov-Jan delivery estimate.

Now just have to decide if I should wait for my white seats to order or just pull the trigger now.

 

[rocketshipp85]

Got the invite. I'm in MD

 

[Zaxxon]

 

[wjhepworth]

I got my invite and am from Bethesda, MD. Ordered on internet during unveiling. Non-employee. Previous owner of 1 Model S. Good times.

 

[sammyfan711]

Just got the invite, 3/31 in store from Chicago! Email came in at 1224, done configuring at 1226

Anyone have a link to the Google doc I can update?

 

[Zaxxon]

Just got the invite, 3/31 in store from Chicago! Email came in at 1224, done configuring at 1226

Anyone have a link to the Google doc I can update?

Congrats!

Link.

 

[wjhepworth]

Just got the invite, 3/31 in store from Chicago! Email came in at 1224, done configuring at 1226

Anyone have a link to the Google doc I can update?

Slow internet connection eh? What took so long to place that order?

 

[dailydriver]

I just got my invite and configured. I have purchased 4 other Teslas and am in the Chicago area.

 

[Zaxxon]

Slow internet connection eh? What took so long to place that order?

Takes awhile for the bits to go from Chicago to CA and back...

 

[jbcarioca]

Not really. enqueued is the past participle of queue. Used mostly in computer references these days, although the term queue itself arrived in English in the 16th century from Latin, meaning tail. It was then applied by those British sailors to the longish bundle of hair common among Chinese workers in the 18th century.

Sadly, I am deeply enqueued for my two Model 3's.

Oops, I spoke too soon. I am still enqueued for the Brazilian one but I was just invited to configure the Florida one. Hooray for unenqueuement (if that was not a word, I consider it to be one now)

 

[DFibRL8R]

I just received an invite to configure.