Tesla reaches 100000 US cars sold, halfway towards tax credit cap

[model3fan]

I use the insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ for continuity.

to update the current totals at end of 2015 + partial 2017 would be

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 112,533 (28,896 Model S and 18,223 Model X = 47,119 for 2016 + prior years)
2017 Jun 132,673 (11,195 Model S and 8,945 Model X, and 0 Model 3 = 20,140 for Jan-Jun 2017 + prior years)

Note I didn't add any Model 3 deliveries in because those happened in July and I don't have the July numbers for S and X yet. Presumably they'll beat the 45,000 US mark with Model 3 taking up the slack where S/X are selling slower in 2017.

With that in mind I'd see end of 2017 around ~160,000 and the 200,000 mark hitting somewhere in 2018, maybe 2Q 2018? Assuming I didn't screw up the math there we'd have

Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit

Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 Full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 No credit

Which means all the people getting that extended range battery for $9000 before the $7500 credit gets cut in half are getting a $3750 discount on taking the forced upgrade if they want it quick.

Thank you!

 

[alseTrick]

I'm not as sure. It's both Tesla and GM who need the cap adjusted. Both are American employers.

We will see. I still think it was short-sighted for Tesla Motors to remove their influence from the Presidential industrial panel. Sure it appeased a large group of people who can only think about things in social justice terms, not EV terms. But oddly enough EVs don't seem to care who is driving one.

I don't think he had any influence. I'm glad musk initially joined and I'm ok with him leaving when he did.

Maybe. Maybe the American auto industry angle will gain some traction with the president. Maybe. But off the hoof, I'd assume it to be doa in Congress.

I could see them ending the program entirely once two American automakers reach their cap before i could see them extending it.

 

[dhanson865]

Thank you!

It's entirely possible that they tip over 200,000 in 1st quarter 2018 instead of 2nd quarter if Model 3 ramps up quickly. Well worth keeping both possibilities in mind.

 

[Twiglett]

at least we now have a Tesla estimator for Model 3 deliveries

 

[Saghost]

It's entirely possible that they tip over 200,000 in 1st quarter 2018 instead of 2nd quarter if Model 3 ramps up quickly. Well worth keeping both possibilities in mind.

Elon strongly hinted that they'll make adjustments to production/deliveries to get the end of credits to fall at the start of a quarter; the above analysis suggests the first couple of weeks of second quarter next year is a good guess.

 

[gregincal]

I use the insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ for continuity.

to update the current totals at end of 2015 + partial 2017 would be

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 112,533 (28,896 Model S and 18,223 Model X = 47,119 for 2016 + prior years)
2017 Jun 132,673 (11,195 Model S and 8,945 Model X, and 0 Model 3 = 20,140 for Jan-Jun 2017 + prior years)

Note I didn't add any Model 3 deliveries in because those happened in July and I don't have the July numbers for S and X yet. Presumably they'll beat the 45,000 US mark with Model 3 taking up the slack where S/X are selling slower in 2017.

With that in mind I'd see end of 2017 around ~160,000 and the 200,000 mark hitting somewhere in 2018, maybe 2Q 2018? Assuming I didn't screw up the math there we'd have

Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit

Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 Full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 No credit

Which means all the people getting that extended range battery for $9000 before the $7500 credit gets cut in half are getting a $3750 discount on taking the forced upgrade if they want it quick.

You do realize that Tesla is targeting 5000 Model 3's per week by the end of the year, which would be at least 60K in Q1 2018 (all to the US). They would have to be hugely off their goal for you to be correct. It seems almost certain that even if the ramp is slower than planned that they will hit 200K in Q1 2018, not Q2.

 

[dhanson865]

You do realize that Tesla is targeting 5000 Model 3's per week by the end of the year, which would be at least 60K in Q1 2018 (all to the US). They would have to be hugely off their goal for you to be correct. It seems almost certain that even if the ramp is slower than planned that they will hit 200K in Q1 2018, not Q2.

Yes, absolutely correct. It's all about making goals. If they make goals it'll be Q1, if they fall behind some they can shift to Q2.

There are ways to shift it to Q2 without stopping production. You can ship cars to Canada or any other country. You can produce US cars up to the end of the quarter and deliver in the next quarter (days or weeks later). Delaying delivery makes the Q1 numbers look worse and the Q2 numbers better. Annual numbers are a wash.

If they hit 200,000 in Q1 it's better for me as a shareholder short term. If they hit 200,000 in Q2 its better for some Model 3 customers to get the full, half, or quarter tax credit. But personally I'm not going to be getting a car in that time frame so my only interest is academic. I don't think it'll make a huge difference either way.