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Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

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It may be worth considering the strategy of pricing the Powerpack so low. I think they are trying to shock the market and impact the multi year planing cycle of utilities and other business and also impact policy formation. With such a low price this will create a substantial back log. This may also drive less serious competitors out of the market. Additionally, any firm considering investing in a new gas peaking plant had better revisit their assumptions. So stalling new fossil fuel plant project may be one policy objective. But with an excruciating long back log, they may be able to motivate some buyers to enter off take agreements to help finance the rollout of gigafactory capacity. Becoming an off taker would be a way to get around waiting for years on a back order. So I'm not sure exactly what motivated this pricing, but there are many interesting consequences to consider.
 
Elon on Q2 conference call bringing up the fact that the Powerpack doesn't necessarily have to be coupled with renewable energy sources, that it can increase greatly the value of a traditional fossil fuel powered generation plant, that "it makes sense everywhere". Basically he is confirming the idea we've had in this thread - that adding Powerpacks to any powerplant greatly increases it's dynamic range of energy delivery.
 
Elon on Q2 conference call bringing up the fact that the Powerpack doesn't necessarily have to be coupled with renewable energy sources, that it can increase greatly the value of a traditional fossil fuel powered generation plant, that "it makes sense everywhere". Basically he is confirming the idea we've had in this thread - that adding Powerpacks to any powerplant greatly increases it's dynamic range of energy delivery.

elon was saying they can close down half the world's peaker plants with powerpacks. His point is we can cut fossil fuel use by half just with the implementation of Powerpack in current utility structure.

Traditional Utitlities do no like this since they have such significant investment in peaker generation in the United States and many seas around the world. However, this does not mean there are big utilities not going to buy a crap load of powerpacks.

Powerwall is going to be massive with the advent of aggregation. Elon not taking about this because he wants to court big utitlies. Two pronged attack: Solarcity with DG storage, Elon and tesla on big utitliy storage. The combination will change the entire energy economy in an accelerated manner. End goal is fully sustainable energy production (and consumption) economy.
 
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elon was saying they can close down half the world's peaker plants with powerpacks. His point is we can cut fossil fuel use by half just with the implementation of Powerpack in current utility structure.

Traditional Utitlities do no like this since they have such significant investment in peaker generation in the United States and many seas around the world. However, this does not mean there are big utilities not going to buy a crap load of powerpacks.

Powerwall is going to be massive with the advent of aggregation. Elon not taking about this because he wants to court big utitlies. Two pronged attack: Solarcity with DG storage, Elon and tesla on big utitliy storage. The combination will change the entire energy economy in an accelerated manner. End goal is fully sustainable energy production (and consumption) economy.

Sorry, disagree. Ignoring (as he was at the time of the answer) further deployment of renewables, what he said was that you get to shut down half of the peaker plants, or not build them anyway. But that doesn't cut the fossil fuel use by 50%, by any means. It will still mostly take a certain amount of fossil fuel to produce the same total MWh of energy. I say "mostly" because peaker plants tend to be less efficient than plants optimized for continuous power production, otherwise it would still be the same amount of fuel.
 
Sorry, disagree. Ignoring (as he was at the time of the answer) further deployment of renewables, what he said was that you get to shut down half of the peaker plants, or not build them anyway. But that doesn't cut the fossil fuel use by 50%, by any means. It will still mostly take a certain amount of fossil fuel to produce the same total MWh of energy. I say "mostly" because peaker plants tend to be less efficient than plants optimized for continuous power production, otherwise it would still be the same amount of fuel.

This is correct. But any new peaker plants not built is a good thing for the environment. Running existing powerplants at steady levels may increase efficiency which over-all is positive for the environment. The economical aspect, for the plant owners, is grim: many newly built peaker plants may never generate enough revenue to down-pay their own build and run costs.

As Powerwalls get applied at an exponentially increasing range 2016-2017-2018 it's going to really stir the pot in the power plant market.
 
elon was saying they can close down half the world's peaker plants with powerpacks. His point is we can cut fossil fuel use by half just with the implementation of Powerpack in current utility structure.

Not completely. You can possibly cut down some cold standby plants (those which are not running "hot" but offline) and also drop some synchronous standby (peaker plants running but not on the grid). But you cannot cut fossil fuels used by base-load plants. Actually think about the overnight. The baseload plants will run harder - charging both batteries in cars and in storage devices. Then 10-18% of the battery charge loaded into the stationary storage is lost to round-trip efficiencies. That is offset by the power not demanded mid-day during the peak cycle which can lead to lessened peaker plant demand. That is in "today's world" of 7 billion. What is happening in Asia, primarily, is a humanity bloom of population which requires more power plants. Population will reach 9 billion by 2050. Peaker plants are one thing but many dozens of base-load plants are being built now. We are talking "peaker plants" which are used a much lower amount of time versus baseload which is the 800 pound gorilla. Cutting some peaker plants is not going to do much for the overall power picture.

But what is not discussed is how much fuel is used by peaker plants in sheer volume compared to the fuel used by base-load plants. Many plants which are baseload are both coal, nuclear, natural gas and then hydro and renewables. Remember too that H20 vapor (water vapor) is the #1 global greenhouse gas, not C02. Most power plants turn river water into steam to turn generators and thus are a cause of their own pressure on the environment in terms of loading it up with water vapor, C02 and other chemicals. The steam off a nuclear plant is not helping with global warming by loading additional water vapor in the air (as a base-load plant). Shutting down that plant would also help as well even though Nuclear is not using much fossil fuels at all. But batteries are not an energy producer; rather a net energy consumer and thus batteries are in-turn needing renewables to offset their extra use of the baseload plants. Adding batteries alone without an offsetting renewable input source to supplement them is not going to do much overall for fossil fuel decrease.

So, ggr is correct. Talking about shutting down peaker plants is somewhat minimal in the overall global power production picture. Some peaker plants are required by regulation of the FERC to be kept running even if not connected to the grid. The reason is because some plants need to go into service with short notice. Imagine a nuclear plant running two turbines gets an alarm and must shut a turbine down with little notice. FERC regulation states that they alert local suppliers to bring generators online to the grid to offset the loss of the nuclear turbine. That is the real reason for peaker plants along with freq. response to hot afternoons or other demand spikes. Peaker plants are an insurance policy to offer grid users a smooth experience. Otherwise, we'd be more like the Caribbean where some islands experience 3-4 power failures per day for short periods. The North American grids are actually very stable due to peaker plants and there's nothing wrong with them - maybe they can be changed-over to batteries if the price is right. In fact, batteries would last decades as a peaker plant because they'd not be called into depletion status very often - maybe 30-50 full cycles a year compared to a daily discharge as a peak load shaving solution.

Some reading: Natural gas-fired combustion turbines are generally used to meet peak electricity load - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
 
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And also has global humidity been on the rise like CO2 levels? If so, it would make sense. But quick google shows dropping humidity levels

I am not saying that water vapor is or is not a factor - but that the scientists state that it is of course the leading greenhouse gas in our atmosphere which is hardly ever discussed.
When water vapor gets angry, though, it is the major cause of much of our problems. Hurricanes. The energy in a hurricane is a localized vortex feedback loop within the molecules of air and water vapor entrapped. People hate hurricanes mainly because they want to live by the water - and when the weather is nice, not many places are better than a seaside location. In a way, isn't this a form of "real-estate greed" - where living in the nicest of spots should be protected in ways that include our own attempts to change the planet's climate cycles? It's a form of saving face because we (silly us) built big expensive cities on the waterlines in various spots like Beijing, NYC, London, Amsterdam, etc, and fixing those cities to support a large oceanic rise of up to 5-10' is a cost we may not be able to easily bear? Maybe we have to face that we were pretty ignorant of the long-scale of ice history until the past century's scientists discovered what they did in the antarctic ice. Sea levels were 20-40' lower a couple thousand years ago. But no records really exist. They haven't risen that much in the last 100 years, actually. How much is sea level rising? The graph there shows that rise was happening in the early 1800s and the slop is not really as much of a ramp as you'd expect with the industrialization since 1900. But the slop is an increasing slope, and that is visible in that graph. It seems to be a gigantic gentle uptrend and that means it takes a gigantic amount of effort to reverse the trend. Rather than pushing an ocean-liner with a tug-boat, this is like trying to push the island of Kawaii with a a speed boat. I believe such large and long trends of such a graph shown in this sea level rise chart may be impossible to change by slightly altering our emissions alone. We have to look further into the earth's axis angle as it has wobbled over the last 24,000 years and some of that comes into play with the amount of sun hitting some parts of the globe over time. Axial precession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and Ice Ages and Earths Wobble - Astrobiology Magazine

Anyway - here's something to check out. Thanks To The IPCC, the Public Doesnt Know Water Vapor Is Most Important Greenhouse Gas | Watts Up With That?

There are really multiple angles in this environment model and perhaps many of them are not conflicting but constructive of each other. But can our distributed humanity and various culture really come together to fix things or are we fighting a horrible uphill battle of hope?

There are a whole lot more things that can come into play longer term. One is the moon's location is continuously getting farther from the earth by just under one inche a year (I am taking a very long term view on that). This can lead to rotation and axis changes for the planet longer-term and less tidal pull as well. We want less tidal pull if the oceans are going to be rising slightly. Who's got all the answers? Nobody, really. I think science and its discoveries are just helping focus on the bigger macro picture of the inevitable long-wave changes on a dynamic planet. I think our biggest problem as humanity is everyone thinking they have all the answers and the infighting when each group want to be right.
 
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This is stupid. Sorry Bonaire, it's cool to keep an open mind, to question things, to think outside of the box. But you don't think the climate scientists pretty much have it nailed down by now? At least the big strokes? Let me give you the short version: CO2 is at the core of the issue, the rest is secondary.

This talk about water vapor is just obfuscation, something the deniers have been very good at until recently. Don't get in to it. They love to play with smart people's minds, make smart people think they're clever for bringing up new ideas, for being a little contrarian. Well, guess what, this whole global warming thing is complicated of course, but in another way easy: too much CO2 is the issue, in practice not much else matters.
 
I am not saying that water vapor is or is not a factor - but that the scientists state that it is of course the leading greenhouse gas in our atmosphere which is hardly ever discussed.
When water vapor gets angry, though, it is the major cause of much of our problems. Hurricanes. The energy in a hurricane is a localized vortex feedback loop within the molecules of air and water vapor entrapped. People hate hurricanes mainly because they want to live by the water - and when the weather is nice, not many places are better than a seaside location. In a way, isn't this a form of "real-estate greed" - where living in the nicest of spots should be protected in ways that include our own attempts to change the planet's climate cycles? It's a form of saving face because we (silly us) built big expensive cities on the waterlines in various spots like Beijing, NYC, London, Amsterdam, etc, and fixing those cities to support a large oceanic rise of up to 5-10' is a cost we may not be able to easily bear? Maybe we have to face that we were pretty ignorant of the long-scale of ice history until the past century's scientists discovered what they did in the antarctic ice. Sea levels were 20-40' lower a couple thousand years ago. But no records really exist. They haven't risen that much in the last 100 years, actually. How much is sea level rising? The graph there shows that rise was happening in the early 1800s and the slop is not really as much of a ramp as you'd expect with the industrialization since 1900. But the slop is an increasing slope, and that is visible in that graph. It seems to be a gigantic gentle uptrend and that means it takes a gigantic amount of effort to reverse the trend. Rather than pushing an ocean-liner with a tug-boat, this is like trying to push the island of Kawaii with a a speed boat. I believe such large and long trends of such a graph shown in this sea level rise chart may be impossible to change by slightly altering our emissions alone. We have to look further into the earth's axis angle as it has wobbled over the last 24,000 years and some of that comes into play with the amount of sun hitting some parts of the globe over time. Axial precession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and Ice Ages and Earths Wobble - Astrobiology Magazine

Anyway - here's something to check out. Thanks To The IPCC, the Public Doesnt Know Water Vapor Is Most Important Greenhouse Gas | Watts Up With That?

There are really multiple angles in this environment model and perhaps many of them are not conflicting but constructive of each other. But can our distributed humanity and various culture really come together to fix things or are we fighting a horrible uphill battle of hope?

There are a whole lot more things that can come into play longer term. One is the moon's location is continuously getting farther from the earth by just under one inche a year (I am taking a very long term view on that). This can lead to rotation and axis changes for the planet longer-term and less tidal pull as well. We want less tidal pull if the oceans are going to be rising slightly. Who's got all the answers? Nobody, really. I think science and its discoveries are just helping focus on the bigger macro picture of the inevitable long-wave changes on a dynamic planet. I think our biggest problem as humanity is everyone thinking they have all the answers and the infighting when each group want to be right.

I ran into another article at the whatsupwiththat site which "intelligently" spoke about how solar panels and renewable energy are no good and will not solve any problem. Within that is also pointed out how Google has given up on renewable energy and how it would take a 1000 years to go 100% solar and concludes that proponents of renewable energy have entrenched business interests and cannot solve any energy problems except on a very small scale and are deluding the public or some such.. I refuse to read anything on that website anymore simply because I might get motivated to start responding to the nonsense there and get entangled in battles with online trolls. I already face that on seeking alpha enough.
 
Gaak! Bonaire, I'm hoping to keep this post from bouncing over to snippiness, but, quite frankly, just about all of it is on the same level of accuracy as its assertion that Beijing is "on the waterline" (ie, coastal). Crikeys.
 
Hi,
Foghat said:
elon was saying they can close down half the world's peaker plants with powerpacks. His point is we can cut fossil fuel use by half just with the implementation of Powerpack in current utility structure.
No. He said that it's possible to close down half the world's power plants with powerpacks. It is great to know that this is possible, it will be a big help with the transition to wind and solar but it isn't economically viable now.
http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-big-and-cheap
Storage as a Grid Component (Caching for Electrons)
First, Texas utility Oncor commissioned a study (pdf – The Value of Distributed Electricity Storage in Texas) of whether it would be cost-effective to deploy storage throughout the Texas grid (called ERCOT), placing the energy storage at the ‘edge’ of the grid, close to consumers.

The conclusion was an overwhelming yes. The study authors concluded that, at a capital cost of $350 / kwh for lithium-ion batteries (which they expected by 2020, but which Tesla has already beaten), it made sense across the ERCOT region to deploy at least 15,000 MWh of battery storage. (That would be 15 million KWh, or the equivalent battery capacity of nearly 160,000 Tesla model 85Ds.)

The study authors concluded that this additional battery storage would slightly lower consumer electrical bills, reduce outages, reduce the need to build added capacity (by shifting the peak, much as a home battery would), and similarly reduce the need to build additional transmission and distribution lines.

You can also see that at a slightly lower price of storage than the $350 / kwh assumed here, the economic case for 8,000 MW (or 24,000 MWh) of storage becomes clear. And we are very likely about to see such prices.

8,000 MW or 8 GW is a very substantial amount of energy storage. For context, average US electrical draw (over day/night, 365 days a year) is roughly 400 GW. So this study is claiming that in Texas alone, the economic case for energy storage is strong enough to motivate storage capacity equivalent to 2% of the US’s average power draw.

ERCOT consumes roughly 1/11th of the US’s electricity. (ERCOT uses roughly 331,000 GWh / year. The US as a whole roughly 3.7 million GWh / year.) If similar findings hold true in other grids (unknown as of yet), that would imply an economic case fairly soon for energy storage capacity of 22% of US electric draw for 3 hours, meaning roughly 88,000 MW or 264,000 MWh.

OTOH replacing 100% of the world's peaker plants with powerpacks is economically viable now.
Replacing Natural Gas Peakers

The grid has to be built out to support the peak of use, not the average of use. Part of that peak is sheer load. Earlier I mentioned natural gas ‘peaker’ plants. Peaker plants are reserve natural gas plants. On average they’re active far less than 10% of the time. They sit idle, fueled, ready to come online to respond to peaking electricity demand. Even in this state, bringing a peaker online takes a few minutes.

Peaker plants are expensive. They operate very little of the time, so their construction costs are amortized over few kwh; They require constant maintenance to be sure they’re ready to go; and they’re less efficient than combined cycle natural gas plants, burning roughly 1.5x as much fuel per kwh of electricity delivered, since the economics of investing in their efficiency hardly make sense when they run for so little of the time.

The net result is that energy storage appears on the verge of undercutting peaker plants. You can find multiple articles online on this topic. Let me point you to one in-depth report, by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): Cost-Effectiveness of Energy Storage in California (pdf).

This report specifically looked at the viability of replacing some of California’s natural gas peaker plans.

While the EPRI California study was asking a different question than the ERCOT study that looked at storage at the edge, it came to a similar conclusion. Storage would cost money, but the economic benefit to the grid of replacing natural gas peaker plants with battery storage was greater than the cost. Shockingly, this was true even when they used fairly high prices. The default assumption here was a 2020 lithium-ion battery price of $528 / kwh. The breakeven price their analysis found was $842 / kwh, three times as high as Tesla’s announced utility scale price of $250/kwh.

California alone has 71 natural gas peaker plants, with a combined capacity of 7,418 MW (pdf). The addressable market is large
 
That's right Mitch. This, as jhm has speculated, is going to be a real problem for utilities/companies that have recently built and presumably financed new nat gas peaker plants. The owners, as well as the financiers, have likely calculated a timeline for down payment and profitability based on getting paid some quite high peak (premium) rates for electricity generated. These profits may never materialize, at least looking only a few short years ahead.

In fact, if someone knows of some publicly traded company in California whose business is highly dependent on peaker plants I'd be seriously interested in learning about them and considering shorting them in the market.