Tesla Super Charger conspiracy

[yessuz]

Hear me out (put tin foil hat on).

TLDR; I wonder if I am the only one who noticed that Tesla now tends to recommend/insist you to charge your car for longer/more at Super Chargers, or am I deluded?

So I am not using SCs that often, let's say once in a month on average, when I have long trips.

However, what I remember, when I used to plot the trip including charging on the way, car used to add a charging stop in order to arrive to my destination with ~10% or so after the last charge. For example, it used to guide me that I need to charge for ~10 minutes in order to continue my trip.

Yesterday, while returning from London, I had to stop at Oxford SCs. it usually takes ~50% of my battery and I knew that I needed ~15% charge up in order to arrive at home with 10% SOC or so.
When I put my destination into the map t departure, the car offered me stop at Oxford SCs with 30 min stop to charge. Quite odd, I though, as usually it used to be like 10 minutes or 15 as recommended and then continue trip with arrival SOC at 10%.

nevertheless, when I was charging, I could see that "10 minutes of charge remaining in order to continue your trip" - the usual message I used to get. which is nice to have as we know.

However since I looked at my battery (60% charge) and still 5 minutes remaining, my trip planner showed that I will arrive with 10% SOC, and since I wanted to get back home earlier, I unplugged.
Suddenly, my arrival SOC became 35% (not 10%) - way more than I needed in reality.

*tin foil bit*
Now, with energy prices at the high, with SC pricing being at £0.69 per kwh during the peak, I find that it is quite profitable for Tesla recommend to charge for longer than it is needed.

If we take into account that tesla makes ~10p for each SC kwh (my assumption), and let's say you manage to get all cars to charge 10 kwh more every day than it is actually needed, with 1.000.000 cars using SCs daily, then you make 1.000.000 profit a day...


does your observations regarding recommended charging time differs from mine?!

 

[WllXM]

Made the exact same observations last month on a road trip. Tesla made me (super)charge for 10/15mins longer than I needed, with the SoC at destination 'automagically' bumping from 10 to 30% shortly after I drove back.

At the time, I attributed that to either cold weather miscalculation / bug on the last release not taking into account the over-consumption used for battery conditioning and whatnot... but I'm ready to put my tinfoil hat on now...

 

[yessuz]

yes!

I mean if I owned vehicle which predominantly uses my own charging network, then I would probably also tried to rake as much cash I need, including the slight over charge at the SCs. it is quote small amount per car. but if I have million cars, then we talk about millions of new revenue stream

 

[DrJFoster]

I've seen what you describe, my two thoughts (which are less tin foil). The trip computer seems to a bit flacky at the moment. I did a long trip over Christmas, supercharger as the first destination, preheating drank the electrons like no tomorrow. Trip then recommended an equally stupid amount for the next leg, seemingly thinking the previous legs consumption was more typical but it wasn't, the excess was down to preconditioning for supercharging. I couldn't take any changes and beat the prediction by 10% ( 70% -> 50% and not 70% -> 40%)

The second theory is it's trying to protect the battery by not letting the SoC drop to 10%, especially if you're going to then leave the car. In summer it might return to the lower level when its warmer.

The theory to counter your claim, it's not in Teslas interest at the moment to have supercharger queues as thats giving them bad press. If I was them I'd be going the other way to free them up quicker. Although, if they used AI to maximise profit they'd tweak it for every charge to balance availability and revenue..

 

[yessuz]

I would probably tend to disagree on some bits.

I've seen what you describe, my two thoughts (which are less tin foil). The trip computer seems to a bit flacky at the moment. I did a long trip over Christmas, supercharger as the first destination, preheating drank the electrons like no tomorrow. Trip then recommended an equally stupid amount for the next leg, seemingly thinking the previous legs consumption was more typical but it wasn't, the excess was down to preconditioning for supercharging. I couldn't take any changes and beat the prediction by 10% ( 70% -> 50% and not 70% -> 40%)

so, yet another confirmation of the observation?

The second theory is it's trying to protect the battery by not letting the SoC drop to 10%, especially if you're going to then leave the car. In summer it might return to the lower level when its warmer.

Yes, well that would be the case if car would not guide me to my destination without SCs when I can reach it with 10% charge (if my destination SOC is 10% - car does not route me through the SCs...)

The theory to counter your claim, it's not in Teslas interest at the moment to have supercharger queues as thats giving them bad press. If I was them I'd be going the other way to free them up quicker. Although, if they used AI to maximise profit they'd tweak it for every charge to balance availability and revenue..

Why would you make them free quicker if people are queueing and still charging. You are actually incentivised to charge for longer because there's another one waiting which will charge longer and so on. you are just maximising your revenue.

Have in mind that the UK wholesale power price is not back at the June 2022 levels, but SCs are still at September 2022 level

Perfect time to keep SC prices high and then "unnoticeably" keep everyone charging a bit longer

 

[DrJFoster]

I would probably tend to disagree on some bits.


so, yet another confirmation of the observation?



Yes, well that would be the case if car would not guide me to my destination without SCs when I can reach it with 10% charge (if my destination SOC is 10% - car does not route me through the SCs...)



Why would you make them free quicker if people are queueing and still charging. You are actually incentivised to charge for longer because there's another one waiting which will charge longer and so on. you are just maximising your revenue.

Have in mind that the UK wholesale power price is not back at the June 2022 levels, but SCs are still at September 2022 level

Perfect time to keep SC prices high and then "unnoticeably" keep everyone charging a bit longer

Charge rate slows down as you fill up. Better to have an empty car charging at 120kw than a near full one at 50kw. But the main motivation is to avoid the bad press thats been caused over the holiday period. Thats got to have put a few people off buying a Tesla.

 

[yessuz]

Charge rate slows down as you fill up. Better to have an empty car charging at 120kw than a near full one at 50kw.

Why? at slow or fast rate - it does not really matter - you still need same amount of kwh pumped into your battery.

But the main motivation is to avoid the bad press thats been caused over the holiday period. Thats got to have put a few people off buying a Tesla.

You can also adjust the algorithm, to keep cars longer at SC which is less crowded and shorter if more crowded )

I do not say that's the thing what is happening here, but I found it odd that it tends to suggest significantly longer charging sessions even at the trip planner... I think it is happening since october 2022 or so.

 

[WllXM]

Charge rate slows down as you fill up. Better to have an empty car charging at 120kw than a near full one at 50kw. But the main motivation is to avoid the bad press thats been caused over the holiday period. Thats got to have put a few people off buying a Tesla.

I must say when I observed the over-charging behaviour, it was at two almost empty SCs (we were 2 for 8 stalls). So maybe an occupancy adjustment calculation there.

But I will say that the bad press (and potential lawsuits) if something like this was discovered (because it has to be programmed into the code in the first place) makes the conspiracy theory very unlikely... But a coding mistake could..

 

[DeejUK]

Why? at slow or fast rate - it does not really matter - you still need same amount of kwh pumped into your battery.

It's a matter of throughput.

Consider a single supercharger, for which there was constant demand (ie when one car leaves, the next starts charging). If it's outputting 120kW constantly, that's 120*24=2,880kWh/day. If half of the time it's only outputting 50kW, then clearly the total number of kWh sold is going to be lower, and they would make less money.

This only holds if there's a constant supply of new people waiting to charge.

An analogy would be that if you're running a pub, you want the tables taken by people drinking more quickly than being taken by one old bloke sipping a half of Guinness. This doesn't factor in the financial overheads of the fast drinkers getting sloshed and needing to be thrown out

 

[yessuz]

It's a matter of throughput.

Consider a single supercharger, for which there was constant demand (ie when one car leaves, the next starts charging). If it's outputting 120kW constantly, that's 120*24=2,880kWh/day. If half of the time it's only outputting 50kW, then clearly the total number of kWh sold is going to be lower, and they would make less money.

This only holds if there's a constant supply of new people waiting to charge.

An analogy would be that if you're running a pub, you want the tables taken by people drinking more quickly than being taken by one old bloke sipping a half of Guinness. This doesn't factor in the financial overheads of the fast drinkers getting sloshed and needing to be thrown out

yes, that works. However we know that this happens when there are stalls available.

in such case, maybe, it keeps you going even at slower rate (I mean at 60% soc you are still like 80 kw+ charge. 50 kw is at around 85% SOC

 

[Jason71]

At the risk of diverting the thread ( maybe I am a plant and its a deliberate ploy!!)
if your session starts off peak and finishes peak or visa versa does the price you pay change part way through the session so you get billed at two different rates on one charge? or do you pay the rate you started at for the whole charge. I am assuming the former but just wondered?

 

[WllXM]

This doesn't factor in the financial overheads of the fast drinkers getting sloshed and needing to be thrown out

Lost the analogy with some Tesla drivers there...

 

[yessuz]

I must say when I observed the over-charging behaviour, it was at two almost empty SCs (we were 2 for 8 stalls). So maybe an occupancy adjustment calculation there.

But I will say that the bad press (and potential lawsuits) if something like this was discovered (because it has to be programmed into the code in the first place) makes the conspiracy theory very unlikely... But a coding mistake could..

I mean you can always say "oops, bug in a code - thanks for pointing it out".

 

[NewbieT]

It could just be weather compensation- Tesla definitely wants us to all get to our destinations.

The jump from ‘arrive with 10%’ to then unplug and find ‘arrive with 30%’ is rather naughty though (deceitful?).

 

[WllXM]

I mean you can always say "oops, bug in a code - thanks for pointing it out".

I mean, I don't know why Volkswagen hasn't tried that for their diesel emissions...

 

[yessuz]

It could just be weather compensation- Tesla definitely wants us to all get to our destinations.

The jump from ‘arrive with 10%’ to then unplug and find ‘arrive with 30%’ is rather naughty though (deceitful?).

need to check in more detail, and maybe this was just a fluke or something.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It could just be weather compensation- Tesla definitely wants us to all get to our destinations.

The jump from ‘arrive with 10%’ to then unplug and find ‘arrive with 30%’ is rather naughty though (deceitful?).

Maybe Hanlon's razor applies and there's some stupid difference in the algorithm during charging.

 

[Mrklaw]

The estimated arrival energy does seem off at the moment. Did a trip to Bath and back (95 miles each way) and I think it took about 40% on the outbound (started with 90% arrived with 50%). Trip back it was estimating I'd arrive with 25% so only 25% battery for the exact journey that just took 40%. I ignored it as I expected to get back with about 10% and after a few motorway miles it corrected itself but if I was relying on it at the time I'd have been annoyed - if it had said 10% but reality would have been -15%..

 

[ringi]

It may be the miles per kwh is higher with a warm battery so is better after supercharging then before. With the required kWh to be added calculated before the battery is preheated but taking into account the energy needed for preheating.

 

[GRiLLA]

Did you have any waypoints, doesn't sound like it from the description but I've definitely noticed some very strange charging decisions being recommended when waypoints are involved.

Also, I think it's now using more localized forecasts for weather, but that then updates and changes significantly. When driving home from Wales a few weeks ago the expected arrival went from 25% to 5% then back to 18%, a heavy downpour (which was likely) would have created that much change.

Maybe it's UK weather feed is rather rapidly changing.