Norbert
TSLA will win
Maybe some really nice combination of technologies we in this forum are already familiar with, but in a new combination/great package, or so. (As opposed to something as fancy as the "Hyperloop"
).
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Tesla Supercharger network
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
Maybe some really nice combination of technologies we in this forum are already familiar with, but in a new combination/great package, or so. (As opposed to something as fancy as the "Hyperloop"
).I'm not sure if a specific implementation of the super charger will change anything about people's range anxiety perspective. Tesla already announced that they'll be building a 80-amp super charger network, so that is just an implementation detail. Nobody would get any further excited about that (well except shareholder). "Great, you said you would build this and you did - good job."
This seems to be something else in addition.
Judging on Elon's level of excitement this is a in-road induction charger system spanning 1 lane of all of the major interstates
.
So when are the initial SC locations going to be announced? Thought it was going to be this summer? And it is this summer.
youlikeadajuice
P 9130
Elon said there would be a big supercharger announcement in September during the 2012 Q2 Financial Conference Call....
http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Hmm.. I hate havin to post on my iPhone, but this perked my interest in a big way considering how excited Elon is about the SuperChargers. Here is an interview with JB Straubel, the CTO of Tesla.
Tesla CTO Talks Model S, Batteries and In-car Linux | PCWorld Business Center
Take a look at the recharge times he quotes. He starts out at 30-45 minutes then talks himself down to 20-30 minutes in the next sentence. He isn't talking about little road trips in that sentence. A 500 mile road trip (the smallest mentioned) means at least one full recharge. Tesla is only claiming 30 minutes for 160 miles of range and based on that a 20-30 minute charge would mean multiple stops, not stopping "in the middle.. for 20-30 minutes for a quick recharge"
Even his initial 30-45 minute claim is less than what Tesla is currently promising in the context of a long trip with a depleted battery. A 500 mile trip requires a minimum of an hour of recharge time based on the current spec.
Straubel knows everything there is to know about Tesla's technical capabilities. I don't peg him as the type to be imprecise, or to engage in extreme puffery in an interview. If random Tesla employees are speculating that Tesla is about to introduce 15 minute charging that's one thing. If Tesla's CTO makes an off hand comment in an interview and let's slip an improbably fast charge time in the context of long road trips, that's something different.
So my question is, are there real physical limits on charging LiION batteries this quickly, or is it the known technology and standards that are the limiting factor? Can a mad Tesla scientist invent a 200 kWh charger that won't screw up the batteries?
I don't think that limiting demand charges, co-locating with Starbucks or putting up solar panels are going to change how people think about electric cars. "It's way cooler than people think" almost covers Starbucks if we assume Elon thinks Starbucks is cool (I don't). But changing how people think about electric cars is another standard, and the main barrier so far has been range (solved) and chargetime. Cost too, but Model S is alteady competitive in its segment.
Tesla CTO Talks Model S, Batteries and In-car Linux | PCWorld Business Center
Take a look at the recharge times he quotes. He starts out at 30-45 minutes then talks himself down to 20-30 minutes in the next sentence. He isn't talking about little road trips in that sentence. A 500 mile road trip (the smallest mentioned) means at least one full recharge. Tesla is only claiming 30 minutes for 160 miles of range and based on that a 20-30 minute charge would mean multiple stops, not stopping "in the middle.. for 20-30 minutes for a quick recharge"
Even his initial 30-45 minute claim is less than what Tesla is currently promising in the context of a long trip with a depleted battery. A 500 mile trip requires a minimum of an hour of recharge time based on the current spec.
Straubel knows everything there is to know about Tesla's technical capabilities. I don't peg him as the type to be imprecise, or to engage in extreme puffery in an interview. If random Tesla employees are speculating that Tesla is about to introduce 15 minute charging that's one thing. If Tesla's CTO makes an off hand comment in an interview and let's slip an improbably fast charge time in the context of long road trips, that's something different.
So my question is, are there real physical limits on charging LiION batteries this quickly, or is it the known technology and standards that are the limiting factor? Can a mad Tesla scientist invent a 200 kWh charger that won't screw up the batteries?
I don't think that limiting demand charges, co-locating with Starbucks or putting up solar panels are going to change how people think about electric cars. "It's way cooler than people think" almost covers Starbucks if we assume Elon thinks Starbucks is cool (I don't). But changing how people think about electric cars is another standard, and the main barrier so far has been range (solved) and chargetime. Cost too, but Model S is alteady competitive in its segment.
I get the feeling TM is iterating on their design and pushing the limits of physics to ensure they can deliver something that no other company can surpass for the lifetime of these superchargers. So yeah, I'm excited to hear the final spec's as well.
mitch672
Active Member
This story could be related, Tesla and SolarCity partnering up with WalMart. We can only speculate what else Tesla could propose to WalMart as part of this project
SolarCity to install solar panel Cleantech News and Analysis
SolarCity to install solar panel Cleantech News and Analysis
Norbert
TSLA will win
I suppose he meant either multiple stops or was also talking about shorter trips as well. Maybe that got lost when it was transcribed, and possibly shortened, for the article. In general, the article gives me the feeling it is a shortened version of a longer conversation (or it was too short a conversation).
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
This story could be related, Tesla and SolarCity partnering up with WalMart. We can only speculate what else Tesla could propose to WalMart as part of this project
SolarCity to install solar panel Cleantech News and Analysis
I totally buy into the speculation on this thread that SuperChargers will include a substantial storage component. Though folks who are thinking about car batteries being recycled and re-purposed for this application are wrong, at least in terms of the proposed SuperChargers. The car batteries are expected to last a decade or more, while the network is being built now. No point to talking about that yet, though it seems likely that in 10-20 years you might see this.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Yes, these types of interviews tend to be recorded, transcribed and edited. But the actual answers are unlikely to be edited in the way you are thinking, at least at a normal publication. You definitely edit out whole question and answer blocks, and might slice a paragraph for brevity. But you don't muck around within a sentence if you are directly quoting the source in this format.
That's a full and complete sentence that was likely recorded and transcribed, and is very unlikely to be edited. So the error would need to be in the transcription, but I just think that's very unlikely. PC World is a big magazine and is owned by a large conglomerate that operates multiple large publications (IDG). Any similar publication I've worked at would fact check this story as well as a part of the normal editorial process.
That means a separate editor/fact checker would compare the final story with the original recording after the copy desk was done with their editing. Alternative work flows can include a comparison just to the transcript, but in that case you put even more effort into making accurate transcripts in the first place. But it isn't like there would be a huge effort to streamline the copy flow process at a huge magazine that publishes monthly. Most streamlining that I've had to do has always been at daily newspapers which deal with multiple deadlines each day. A monthly is much more sedate, with less need to cut corners.
Smaller publications might give most of those jobs to a single copy editor, but the verification process would normally still involve two people checking the accuracy of the transcript. Tiny publications or blogs get sloppy with this stuff, but not any place I've been with a circulation of more than a few thousand. PC World has a monthly circulation of ~750,000 which makes it a major publication so this is extremely likely to be an accurate quote.
As to him meaning multiple stops, I suppose it's possible. But I don't think you can read what he said and think that he meant that someone driving 500 miles would need to stop 3 times for recharges, or 8 stops on a thousand mile trip. And why would that change how people think about electric cars? A gas powered car will stop once for 15 minutes on a 500 mile trip and just two or three times on a thousand mile trip. Stopping eight times at 20 minutes a pop isn't going to impress anybody.
Besides, that's what Tesla is advertising right now, so why would an opening announcement for a SuperCharger station which meets expectations change anything? Obviously this particular quote might be restating current reality in an inartful way, but that leaves open the question of what has Elon so excited and what are the "technical developments" that Tesla employees are talking about in relation to the undisclosed hype about SuperChargers?
Doubling the expected charge rate would make folks say wow I think.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
No he didn't. It wouldn't have gotten my attention at all except that he was speaking in the context of 1000 mile, day long road trips being able to quickly recharge their vehicle in 20-30 minute increments "in the middle" of the trip. It's certainly possible. A 500 mile trip would require two such stops and add ~1 hour to the trip, while a 1000 mile trip would require 7-8 stops and add 3 hours. That's been my expectation and what they currently advertise, but it does nothing to clear up the mystery surrounding the coming announcement.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
It also seems to me to be more consistent with the expectations from 2009. The current QuickCharge spec is acceptable to me for road trips, but it doesn't blow anybodies mind. Getting from 20% to 90% in 20 minutes would impress a lot of people I think.
If I recall the investor discussion thread, you play the market. Straubel is CTO, which seems like the last thing he would want is be quoted saying something that seems to imply something different than what is currently advertised. The whole SuperCharger spec got lawyered up in this last year with the 160 mile/30 minute clarification. After that Tesla has been very precise when making statements like these.
I just can't imagine him including a 20 minute anything in a discussion of charge time for Model S in the context of a very long road trip unless he knows something we don't and just accidentally let it slip. Tesla lawyers will read a big interview like this. If I were them and I thought that Model S could only get a 50% charge in 30 minutes I'd demand that PC World update the story with a clarification.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
They currently advertise that the SuperCharger will provide 160 miles in a 30 minute charge. Thats ~50% of the 85kWh battery which is what I was referencing. A 20 minute charge would only provide a ~33%(?) charge based on what we know.
If I was a Tesla lawyer seeing a quote from my CTO about charging the car on a long trip in 20 minutes, I'd call PC World and clarify exactly what my CTO's statement meant. Unless I knew that we were about to announce that a 20 minute charge would be a meaningful event on a 1,000 mile trip.
As the statement stands (speaking as a non-lawyer and amateur investor), I suspect that Staubel's statement might be considered a material change in terms of what investors can expect from the Tesla SuperChargers. So if 20 minutes is not enough to provide a meaningful charge in the context of a long road trip (in my opinion few if any people would stop for 33% unless they needed it to get to the next charger.. which implies poor spacing of chargers if you are already en route) then I'd call PC World ASAP to prevent any SEC or investor issues.
I said 70% because I could see making a 20 minute stop to get from 20% to 90%. Any of those other ranges you quoted would also represent a substantial recharge in 20 minutes and a dramatic improvement from the current expectations. Even 50% in 20 minutes is a lot better than what is currently advertised.
You never arrive at a SuperCharger with a completely empty battery (that would be very risky timing), and you'll never leave with a full battery (the last 5-10% cannot be fast charged). People driving a gasser with a 15 gallon gas tank might typically refuel at 12 gallons.
Stopping for 20 minutes to stretch your legs, drink coffee, etc. would be a nice way to get some extra charge (not a full charge) without wasting any time.
Way cooler than plugging in would be to park in a SuperCharger "zone" and have your car charged inductively without even plugging in. :smile:
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Ok, I don't like talking to myself, but I wanted to watch the web video from the IDG (PC World) test drive. Turns out it includes parts of Straubels interview, starting at the 2:55 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf-wlvVZmJg
The portion included in the video is identical to the interview transcript -
The SuperCharger answer in the interview transcript follows immediately after this, but the video substitutes the actual Q/A with a summary from the reporter. And the reporter listed the current SuperCharger spec time of "half capacity in 30 minutes". So likely Straubel said what he said and the reporter cut that bit and summarized the "correct" information, either as a result of his own reporting or as a result of Straubel, or Tesla itself, walking back his statement.
I don't like conspiracies so I'll assume Straubel just got carried away and then the video report got fixed, while the Q/A transcript stayed the same because it's just a transcript and it fell through the cracks of the copy flow process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf-wlvVZmJg
The portion included in the video is identical to the interview transcript -
The SuperCharger answer in the interview transcript follows immediately after this, but the video substitutes the actual Q/A with a summary from the reporter. And the reporter listed the current SuperCharger spec time of "half capacity in 30 minutes". So likely Straubel said what he said and the reporter cut that bit and summarized the "correct" information, either as a result of his own reporting or as a result of Straubel, or Tesla itself, walking back his statement.
I don't like conspiracies so I'll assume Straubel just got carried away and then the video report got fixed, while the Q/A transcript stayed the same because it's just a transcript and it fell through the cracks of the copy flow process.
It's definitely not identical, but it's "factually equivalent". Read along while watching to video to see what I mean.
Elon announced to make an announcement in July. That got shifted to September. In a video uploaded to Youtube back in 2009, he speculates on starting to erect the supercharger network
That would have been 2010.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvqj7egMZMI?t=3m13
I am happy that Tesla focused on building Model S, instead. I expect a supercharger network concept revealed in September. They will explain how cool their idea is. Nothing more. As others have pointed out (and PBP confirmed), problems mount when actually starting to deploy infrastructure.
That would have been 2010.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvqj7egMZMI?t=3m13
I am happy that Tesla focused on building Model S, instead. I expect a supercharger network concept revealed in September. They will explain how cool their idea is. Nothing more. As others have pointed out (and PBP confirmed), problems mount when actually starting to deploy infrastructure.
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