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Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

Will Tesla Be Able to Match Supply with Demand in terms of Superchargers in 2024/2025?

  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 40 8.7%
  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand even if they accelerate the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 36 7.8%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand but requires accelerating the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 85 18.4%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand with the normal SC network buildout.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand but requires accelerating SCs buildouts.

    Votes: 108 23.4%
  • YUP → Tesla will meet demand without needing to accelerate building out the SC network.

    Votes: 30 6.5%
  • YUP →Tesla will meet demand but requires them accelerating the buildout of the SC network.

    Votes: 94 20.3%
  • Nope, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skeptical, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%
  • Optimistic, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 3 0.6%
  • Yup, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%

  • Total voters
    462
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I'm wondering about distributed generation, for the most part solar panels on people's roofs. If enough of that is done, does it reduce some of the need for upgrading of the power grid? I realize that sometimes things just get old, 50 years is a long time to use the same wires, transformers, etc!

I guess the point is, might it be more cost-effective, or in some other way superior, for the utilities and other groups involved to make it more enticing to the homeowners to go solar? Or to put wind turbines in, or whatever?

Just thinking.
Sure, but let's do a little math.

500kW = 500,000W

A typical solar cell is about 100W, some go to 300w, but are much more expensive.

500,000 / 100 = 5,000 panels which if my math is right, about 10 acres.

But for areas in the middle of nowhere, land can be cheap and installation easy.
 
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Sure, but let's do a little math.

500kW = 500,000W

A typical solar cell is about 100W, some go to 300w, but are much more expensive.

500,000 / 100 = 5,000 panels which if my math is right, about 10 acres.

But for areas in the middle of nowhere, land can be cheap and installation easy.
Standard residential solar panels are 250W to 400W, but typically 350W with the more efficient panels on the higher end. It's generally trending upwards.

Larger panels are used for utility-scale power and can now even be 700W, but that's about size, not efficiency.
 
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A typical solar cell is about 100W, some go to 300w, but are much more expensive.
Standard residential solar panels are 250W to 400W, but typically 350W with the more efficient panels on the higher end.
Yes. That idea of 100W panels is badly outdated. We got ours done about 6 years ago or something, and used I think either 280 or 300W panels back then.
 
Yes. That idea of 100W panels is badly outdated. We got ours done about 6 years ago or something, and used I think either 280 or 300W panels back then.
Does it really matter in the context of this sub-thread? Sure, there are higher capacity panels, but the price per kW stays effectively the same. Sure, the geography would be less, 2.5 acres vs 10.

But is it pertinent?
 
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How much of a panel's rated output will one see over the course of an average day? Whether 300W or 100W, you're not getting that much for 24 hours/day. I'm assuming that the rated power is under ideal conditions: angle is perfect, skies are clear, no pollen/dust/polutants in the air, etc. Maybe you have to be at the equator :). No different than only a doofus expects his car to get rated miles on a fill (whether ICE or EV).
 
How much of a panel's rated output will one see over the course of an average day? Whether 300W or 100W, you're not getting that much for 24 hours/day. I'm assuming that the rated power is under ideal conditions: angle is perfect, skies are clear, no pollen/dust/polutants in the air, etc. Maybe you have to be at the equator :). No different than only a doofus expects his car to get rated miles on a fill (whether ICE or EV).
A panel will see about 5-10 hours of full strength a day. So a 100W panel will give you a little over 500 Wh (0.5kWh) per day. And then you need a battery to store it all in.

I believe that EA has some sites that are solar powered and uses Tesla batteries for storage. Tesla maybe has one or two, but I believe most of theirs is solar augmented.
 
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Does it really matter in the context of this sub-thread? Sure, there are higher capacity panels, but the price per kW stays effectively the same. Sure, the geography would be less, 2.5 acres vs 10.

But is it pertinent?

I'd have to disagree with you. The price per panel has stayed about the same, with the power going up. Solar is a lot cheaper than it used to be. Still, it isn't a panacea. A lot of things have to go together for things to work right.
 
500kW is a large enough solar farm that the main costs are land, labor, and balance of materials. Solar panels have become so cheap that the cost of the solar panels is almost neglible. That’s why all solar farms over about 100kW built in the last few years use panels that are at least 500W each. The cost to install a lot of small panels is so much higher than the cost to install fewer larger panels that the installation cost _difference_ is greater than the wholesale cost of the solar panels.

Achieving rated power doesn’t happen often, but it does happen. It needs to be a sunny day and the panels need to be oriented approximately toward the sun. It helps if it’s a cold day. Being near the equator doesn’t help. If I wanted to demonstrate solar panels producing slightly more than rated power, I would set up the demonstration in Fairbanks Alaska in late spring.
 
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Pedestal hardware switch out is under way.


New NACS hardware replacing old hardware.
New hardware will accommodate all vehicle manufacturers that are licensed by Tesla.

This hardware necessary to complete ‘the handshake’ for all manufacturers. The hardware is inside the supercharger pedestals.

Then…. voilá…. Any NACS capable vehicle may (can) Tesla supercharger with this hardware change. 💭💭Magic docks are dead💭💭
 

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Pedestal hardware switch out is under way.


New NACS hardware replacing old hardware.
New hardware will accommodate all vehicle manufacturers that are licensed by Tesla.

This hardware necessary to complete ‘the handshake’ for all manufacturers. The hardware is inside the supercharger pedestals.

Then…. voilá…. Any NACS capable vehicle may (can) Tesla supercharger with this hardware change. 💭💭Magic docks are dead💭💭
so this has to be done across all sites correct?
 
Pedestal hardware switch out is under way.


New NACS hardware replacing old hardware.
New hardware will accommodate all vehicle manufacturers that are licensed by Tesla.

This hardware necessary to complete ‘the handshake’ for all manufacturers. The hardware is inside the supercharger pedestals.

Then…. voilá…. Any NACS capable vehicle may (can) Tesla supercharger with this hardware change. 💭💭Magic docks are dead💭💭
What site are these pics from ?

Was this site a V2 site before the update ?
 
It’s a guess on my part. I’m just thinking this will have to occur across all sites over time. I don’t know how else the pedestal would be able to communicate properly with whatever vehicle type was requesting to charge.
Communication is handled on the vehicle side and then through the backend from the other automaker to Tesla. It will use ISO 15118 plug and charge just like CCS1 does now.
 
This is the circuit board that is being replaced with a larger/different one to facilitate NACS…. to have compatibility with other manufacturers vehicles. They are all being replaced at Grant Rd Mtn. View CA which is still not open. I’m guessing this will have to be done at every other pedestal @ every other supercharger. I’m guessing that magic docks are on their way out with this change as well.
 

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This is the circuit board that is being replaced with a larger/different one to facilitate NACS…. to have compatibility with other manufacturers vehicles. They are all being replaced at Grant Rd Mtn. View CA which is still not open. I’m guessing this will have to be done at every other pedestal @ every other supercharger. I’m guessing that magic docks are on their way out with this change as well.
I don't see the connection between the two. Magic Dock is to allow CCS ported cars to charge without an adapter. Just because some stations are getting hardware for NACS compatibility doesn't mean those are not necessary, especially those stations that already have been converted.
 
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Thinking about this from both IT and electrical engineering perspectives, with some knowledge of the protocols, I’m not seeing how a circuit board change could be required to support NACS charging of vehicles produced by other manufacturers. Even if a software update would be needed (which should not be the case), Tesla would do that via an OTA update. I’m not saying it’s impossible that the circuit boards need to be changed to support vehicles from other manufacturers, but I’m not seeing how a change that can’t be done via OTA update would be needed.

If I had to guess, perhaps they might be replacing a batch that turned out to be defective. Let’s see if these circuit board updates really apply across the whole network.
 
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Thinking about this from both IT and electrical engineering perspectives, with some knowledge of the protocols, I’m not seeing how a circuit board change could be required to support NACS charging of vehicles produced by other manufacturers. Even if a software update would be needed (which should not be the case), Tesla would do that via an OTA update. I’m not saying it’s impossible that the circuit boards need to be changed to support, but I’m not seeing how a change that can’t be done via OTA update would be needed.

If I had to guess, perhaps they might be replacing a batch that turned out to be defective. Let’s see if these circuit board updates really apply across the whole network.
The Tesla protocol is done over CAN, while CCS communication is done over PLY, i.e. ethernet over powerline (It requires a different physical chipset to allow for communications.) It is the same reason older Tesla vehicles require a physical retrofit to be able to use third-party NACS chargers.

In addition, Tesla has been installing revenue grade energy meters, probably to support billing. (It may be that Tesla required on the CTs in the Tesla vehicles for billing, and for third-party EVs they need to do that in the Superchargers themselves.)