Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

[M CARLING]

You’re not going to see an 8 stall V3 charger in remote rural areas. It won’t be profitable.

Minimum size for NEVI funding is 4 stalls. The Tesla proposals for NEVI funding in Alaska seem to be 8 stalls, but they were approved under the Alternative Fuel Corridor program not the Disadvantaged Communities program. My guess is that very few if any of the chargers that have been or will be approved under NEVI’s Disadvantaged Communities program will ever be profitable — whether grid upgrades are required or not. BTW, Tesla superchargers were not intended to be a profit center, but that may have changed with opening them up to non-Teslas.

I really think once grid storage solutions are cheap enough we don’t even need to worry so much about grid capacity.

There is partial fungibility between grid storage and transmission upgrades. The more transmission upgrades that will be built, the less grid storage will be needed to overcome the intermittency problem. Likewise, the more grid storage that gets built (in the right places), the less transmission network upgrades will be needed. However, both are and will be needed. Doing only one or the other will not suffice. That’s transmission capacity. I haven’t seen any work done on the idea that storage can overcome the need for distribution upgrades. It might in some circumstances, but it won’t in some others. For example, if a site doesn’t have three-phase power, there won’t be any way to charge a Megapack (or anything similar from another manufacturer) using single-phase power. In theory it could be done (no laws of physics are standing in the way) but it’s not practical and no one manufactures single-phase charging equipment on that scale (and probably no one ever will). The grid needs to be upgraded anyway — whether or not chargers will be installed. The distribution circuits that are a problem are generally more than fifty years old and sometimes more than seventy years old.

 

[rlsd]

I think Costco will have Supercharger soon.

 

[TespaceX]

I think Costco will have Supercharger soon.

You’ll never get an open supercharger then.

Even nowadays, I have to sometimes wait for supercharging when shopping at Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, CVS, Walgreens, etc. (In CA). In the middle of the week, too.

 

[jboy210]

You’ll never get an open supercharger then.

Even nowadays, I have to sometimes wait for supercharging when shopping at Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, CVS, Walgreens, etc. (In CA). In the middle of the week, too.

They are trying to make it better. Even a small market is getting 24 stalls. Supercharger - Pleasanton, CA - Hopyard Rd (under construction Dec 2023, 24 V3 stalls)

 

[ewoodrick]

I believe Jim in Houston meant support in terms of electrical capacity. Some distribution circuits (especially in rural areas) are still 4160Y2400V from the substation to the proposed supercharger location. An eight stall V3 supercharger needs 500KVA which is about 25% of the total capacity of such a circuit. If the circuit is near capacity (and most 4160Y2400V circuits are at or near capacity) then adding a new 500KVA service requires increasing the voltage of the circuit (typically to 12,470Y7200V) which involves replacing the transformer (often a pair of transformers) in the substation and every pole top and pad mount transformer between the substation and the proposed supercharger location, then installing a set of step down transformers immediately after the supercharger to avoid replacing the pole top and pad mount transformers along the rest of the distribution circuit. That’s a huge job and most utilities would try to make Tesla pay for it. In some cases it might be possible to instead re-conductor the circuit with larger conductors from the substation to the supercharger location, but most 4160Y2400V circuits already have the largest practical conductors from the substation to the first large customers, so it’s either raise the voltage or install a whole new distribution circuit from the substation. In some cases the substation doesn’t have space to install larger transformers. These sorts of distribution circuit upgrades could easily cost a lot more than a supercharger. Another option would be for Tesla to install a huge solar canopy and a few megapacks, but that would be even more expensive.

It’s not rare for 12,470Y7200V distribution circuits to be at or near capacity. They can be upgraded to voltages as high as 34,500Y19,920V, but most utilities don’t use distribution voltages that high.

I’m confident that many proposed supercharger locations have been rejected because the electrical capacity wasn’t available (without expensive upgrades). BTW, Tesla has the same issue siting service centers, which usually require 750KVA or more, compared to traditional stealerships which are often 100KVA or 150KVA.

A good example of this was Electrify America's entrance into the nothingness of mis-America. They had severe problems getting service in the middle of nowhere. There may have been a Stuckey's gas station at the exit, but nothing else. And EA was going to have to pay for 20+ miles or service upgrade.

 

[Supcom]

You’re not going to see an 8 stall V3 charger in remote rural areas. It won’t be profitable.

Tesla has a permit to install an 8 stall V3 supercharger in Terlingua, TX. It doesn't get much more remote than that. Assuming they build it, it may not be profitable, but it will be greatly appreciated by a lot of us.

 

[jboy210]

Tesla has a permit to install an 8 stall V3 supercharger in Terlingua, TX. It doesn't get much more remote than that. Assuming they build it, it may not be profitable, but it will be greatly appreciated by a lot of us.

I just looked Terlingua up on the map. It looks like it is the poster child for the "middle of nowhere".

 

[M CARLING]

I just looked Terlingua up on the map. It looks like it is the poster child for the "middle of nowhere".

How about Haines, Alaska, 148 miles (and on the other side of an International border) from Haines Junction, which is the nearest place with a connection to an electric grid? They won a (non-Tesla) NEVI grant of $1.4 million to install four chargers, two of which seem to be L2. I haven’t been able to figure out whether most of that money is to extend the grid 148 miles or to pay to upgrade the local microgrid, which is currently powered by diesel generators. If we assume the other two chargers are 50kW (the minimum that would qualify for the grant, unless they were awarded an exception), suddenly hitting the slack bus of a microgrid that size with 50kW would probably require upgrading their power station. 50kW L3 chargers cost about $20,000 each without installation or grid upgrades, so it seems most of the $1.4 million is to somehow provide electricity.

 

[Earl]

A good example of this was Electrify America's entrance into the nothingness of mis-America. They had severe problems getting service in the middle of nowhere. There may have been a Stuckey's gas station at the exit, but nothing else. And EA was going to have to pay for 20+ miles or service upgrade.

hence the reason to put in at Walmarts. There tends to be a Walmart within 2 hours of pretty much everyone in the USA and they do require a lot of power so a little more for a DCFC isn't a big deal.

 

[M CARLING]

I just looked Terlingua up on the map. It looks like it is the poster child for the "middle of nowhere".

I just had a look at Google Street View. Route 170 has three-phase power running alongside both west and east of Terlingua. It looks like 12,470Y7200V, but I can’t be sure from the photographs. If that’s right, then probably Tesla would only have had to pay to extend from Route 170 to the site (minus the first $3000 which is covered by Rio Grande Electric Co-op). It’s possible the $3000 allowance would cover the cost of the connection, though of course it would not cover the cost of a 500KVA transformer. I don’t see anything about the Terlingua location that would make it particularly expensive to install an 8 stall Supercharger, except the long driving distances to get workers and equipment there.

 

[M CARLING]

hence the reason to put in at Walmarts. There tends to be a Walmart within 2 hours of pretty much everyone in the USA and they do require a lot of power so a little more for a DCFC isn't a big deal.

I just looked up annual electricity consumption for Walmart locations. Assuming they have about 14 or 15 opening hours per day, average consumption while open seems to be roughly around 700kW, which is roughly about the same as a fully utilized 8 stall Supercharger. One could confirm that by taking a look (from ten or twenty feet away) at the (usually dark green) pad mounted transformer outside a Walmart. If it’s 500KVA, that’s the same as an 8 stall Supercharger. If it’s 750KVA, that’s the same as a 12 stall Supercharger.

I think in many cases Walmarts would be good supercharger locations. The time needed to charge is probably similar to the time needed to shop for many customers. People who live in apartments without charging stations at home or at work might do a lot of their charging during trips they would anyway make to Walmart. Drivers on long-distance trips could utilize the restrooms and buy some fruit or some junk food while charging.

 

[byeLT4]

Walmart restrooms

 

[phxazcraig]

hence the reason to put in at Walmarts. There tends to be a Walmart within 2 hours of pretty much everyone in the USA and they do require a lot of power so a little more for a DCFC isn't a big deal.

I don't think it's just Walmart and their power, I think it's any big parking lot that is lit at night and accessible. You tend to have the chargers in a less-desirable parking location in the lot, which infers a good size lot. Here in Phoenix it seems many of the SC's are in the middle of mall parking lots, whereas on the highways they thankfully tend to be near 24/7 fast food restaurants with bathrooms. Now if you have a 48-stall rural location, like Quartzite, you provide everything - lights, canopy, parking lot, electricity. Smaller SC locations need a suitable, safe host location. And bigger urban ones, like Friar's Road in San Diego, need to flow a lot of cars through, and the mall makes sense. That location also has about half the chargers 72kW, which would suit people shopping there (Fashion Vally Mall) for several hours.

I've got one of those Walmarts nearby (Anthem AZ) with four EA chargers in it. I should see if my CCS adapter works - it failed in California on the only test I've had.

 

[jboy210]

It looks like Walmart is commited to putting chargers at their stores. But it might not be Superchargers. Leading the Charge: Walmart Announces Plan To Expand Electric Vehicle Charging Network

 

[EbS-P]

Tesla has a permit to install an 8 stall V3 supercharger in Terlingua, TX. It doesn't get much more remote than that. Assuming they build it, it may not be profitable, but it will be greatly appreciated by a lot of us.

I’ll eat my words but that is between two a popular state and national parks. I grew up on the KS CO border. No real attractions within hours. Closest Walmart was near the closest interstate an hour away. That’s my definition of rural.

 

[henderrj]

Minimum size for NEVI funding is 4 stalls. The Tesla proposals for NEVI funding in Alaska seem to be 8 stalls, but they were approved under the Alternative Fuel Corridor program not the Disadvantaged Communities program. My guess is that very few if any of the chargers that have been or will be approved under NEVI’s Disadvantaged Communities program will ever be profitable — whether grid upgrades are required or not. BTW, Tesla superchargers were not intended to be a profit center, but that may have changed with opening them up to non-Teslas.


There is partial fungibility between grid storage and transmission upgrades. The more transmission upgrades that will be built, the less grid storage will be needed to overcome the intermittency problem. Likewise, the more grid storage that gets built (in the right places), the less transmission network upgrades will be needed. However, both are and will be needed. Doing only one or the other will not suffice. That’s transmission capacity. I haven’t seen any work done on the idea that storage can overcome the need for distribution upgrades. It might in some circumstances, but it won’t in some others. For example, if a site doesn’t have three-phase power, there won’t be any way to charge a Megapack (or anything similar from another manufacturer) using single-phase power. In theory it could be done (no laws of physics are standing in the way) but it’s not practical and no one manufactures single-phase charging equipment on that scale (and probably no one ever will). The grid needs to be upgraded anyway — whether or not chargers will be installed. The distribution circuits that are a problem are generally more than fifty years old and sometimes more than seventy years old.

I'm wondering about distributed generation, for the most part solar panels on people's roofs. If enough of that is done, does it reduce some of the need for upgrading of the power grid? I realize that sometimes things just get old, 50 years is a long time to use the same wires, transformers, etc!

I guess the point is, might it be more cost-effective, or in some other way superior, for the utilities and other groups involved to make it more enticing to the homeowners to go solar? Or to put wind turbines in, or whatever?

Just thinking.

 

[Supcom]

I’ll eat my words but that is between two a popular state and national parks. I grew up on the KS CO border. No real attractions within hours. Closest Walmart was near the closest interstate an hour away. That’s my definition of rural.

Those two parks are not as popular as you might think. Other than a few times a year, there are not that many people visiting. Terlingua gets a large crowd once a year for the big chili coookoff, but otherwise it's pretty quiet.

According to Texas Dept of Transportation, FM 170, in Terlingua, sees an average of 1334 cars per day, or about 1 car per minute. Outside Terlingua, the rates are about half this.

BTW, the closest Walmart to Terlingua, as well as the nearest interstate, is 130 miles away. However, there is plenty of shopping and services (even a supercharger now) in Alpine, a mere 80 miles away.

 

[M CARLING]

I'm wondering about distributed generation, for the most part solar panels on people's roofs. If enough of that is done, does it reduce some of the need for upgrading of the power grid? I realize that sometimes things just get old, 50 years is a long time to use the same wires, transformers, etc!

I guess the point is, might it be more cost-effective, or in some other way superior, for the utilities and other groups involved to make it more enticing to the homeowners to go solar? Or to put wind turbines in, or whatever?

Just thinking.

A little bit of distributed generation reduces the need to upgrade distribution circuits — up to the point where the net flow of electricity is reversed during peak generation and low demand (typically around noon). Once the electricity starts flowing backward to the substation, then distributed generation increases the need to upgrade the distribution circuits because substation transformers and other substation equipment built in the 20th century were not engineered for reverse flow.

Two sorts of problems arise. One is flux saturation of the transformers, which among other things dramatically reduces their service life. The other problem (which would arise before flux saturation) is that protection devices, voltages regulation devices, metering devices, etc. (unless they are very recent) are not configured to even detect faults or other abnormalities under reverse flow conditions, let alone cope with them.

Additionally, if a transmission grid operator notices that a customer utility substation is feeding the transmission grid that isn’t supposed to, the transmission grid operator is going to be more concerned about faults that could be introduced than happy about getting some free electricity.

These are the technical reasons (there are also some business reasons) why utilities are often hostile to rooftop solar.

 

[EbS-P]

I'm wondering about distributed generation, for the most part solar panels on people's roofs. If enough of that is done, does it reduce some of the need for upgrading of the power grid? I realize that sometimes things just get old, 50 years is a long time to use the same wires, transformers, etc!

I guess the point is, might it be more cost-effective, or in some other way superior, for the utilities and other groups involved to make it more enticing to the homeowners to go solar? Or to put wind turbines in, or whatever?

Just thinking.

Grid scale solar is cheaper than residential. While in theory what you are proposing would be fine. But we as customers Will demand 99% uptime. Grid connected batteries is my solution. Tesla is already changing SC rates based time of use. they are trying to flatten the consumption curve. I wonder how well it’s working? I’ll never make a 12am trip for cheaper charging. But some might.

 

[ewoodrick]

hence the reason to put in at Walmarts. There tends to be a Walmart within 2 hours of pretty much everyone in the USA and they do require a lot of power so a little more for a DCFC isn't a big deal.

There aren't Walmarts anywhere near the areas that I'm talking about.