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Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

Will Tesla Be Able to Match Supply with Demand in terms of Superchargers in 2024/2025?

  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 40 8.7%
  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand even if they accelerate the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 36 7.8%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand but requires accelerating the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 85 18.4%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand with the normal SC network buildout.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand but requires accelerating SCs buildouts.

    Votes: 108 23.4%
  • YUP → Tesla will meet demand without needing to accelerate building out the SC network.

    Votes: 30 6.5%
  • YUP →Tesla will meet demand but requires them accelerating the buildout of the SC network.

    Votes: 94 20.3%
  • Nope, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skeptical, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%
  • Optimistic, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 3 0.6%
  • Yup, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%

  • Total voters
    462
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Magic Docks will still be included in any NEVI V4 stalls to provide the required CCS plugs.
Yes, the CCS requirement in NEVI lasts for five years from commissioning of the site. After that, the owner is free to support or not support particular standards — or even close the site. So the last nail is already in CCS1’s coffin, but burial will have to wait several more years.
 
The Tesla protocol is done over CAN, while CCS communication is done over PLY, i.e. ethernet over powerline (It requires a different physical chipset to allow for communications.) It is the same reason older Tesla vehicles require a physical retrofit to be able to use third-party NACS chargers.

In addition, Tesla has been installing revenue grade energy meters, probably to support billing. (It may be that Tesla required on the CTs in the Tesla vehicles for billing, and for third-party EVs they need to do that in the Superchargers themselves.)
Didn’t Tesla change that a few years ago when they switched to the CCS protocol from their own proprietary protocol?
 
Didn’t Tesla change that a few years ago when they switched to the CCS protocol from their own proprietary protocol?
No, Tesla never switched to the CCS protocol. (That would have prevented most pre-2021 Teslas from being able to Supercharge.)

They did add CCS support at some, most?, V3 sites in Europe a while back, but the vehicles still primarily use the proprietary Tesla protocol.

One way to know which is used is by timing how long a charge takes to start. If it is ~7 seconds it is using the Tesla protocol. If it takes >30 seconds it is using CCS.
 
No, Tesla never switched to the CCS protocol. (That would have prevented most pre-2021 Teslas from being able to Supercharge.)

They did add CCS support at some, most?, V3 sites in Europe a while back, but the vehicles still primarily use the proprietary Tesla protocol.

One way to know which is used is by timing how long a charge takes to start. If it is ~7 seconds it is using the Tesla protocol. If it takes >30 seconds it is using CCS.

Tesla switched from CANbus to PLC in 2021 according to the link (and others found easily via Google).
 

Tesla switched from CANbus to PLC in 2021 according to the link (and others found easily via Google).
Well they are all wrong, or you are misinterpreting what they are saying. Tesla never switched. They did publish the NACS standard, that uses, CCS, but they still use the Tesla protocol themselves, even in Europe where the Model 3 shipped with CCS support in addition to the Tesla proprietary protocol. (And likely will continue to do so forever. Partially because if they want to change something on it they can at anytime, but now that NACS is an official standard, SAE J3400, they can't change anything about it without getting the SAE committee to approve the change.)

Again, pre-2021 North American vehicles can't talk CCS, or NACS/J3400, without a hardware retrofit. So, if they switched to CCS all of those cars would not be able to Supercharge. (The same applies to pre-2022, I think, Model S&X vehicles in Europe.)

And then there are the V2 Superchargers that generally don't support CCS at all, so if the vehicle only talked CCS it wouldn't be able to use V2 Superchargers. (They did add CCS support to some V2s in Europe, but from what we have seen there are no plans to do that in North America.)
 
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I’m not suggesting that Tesla dropped support for their older (pre-CCS) protocol. I can’t imagine any reason why they would do that. I’m suggesting that when Tesla added support for the CCS protocol (ISO 15118 and DIN 70121) in 2021, they didn’t only add the capability for newer Teslas to charge at CCS DCFCs with an adaptor but that they also made it possible for other vehicles to use newer superchargers (subject of course to software updates, agreements with other manufacturers, billing issues, etc.). So why would hardware changes be needed to superchargers manufactured well after 2021?
 
I’m not suggesting that Tesla dropped support for their older (pre-CCS) protocol. I can’t imagine any reason why they would do that. I’m suggesting that when Tesla added support for the CCS protocol (ISO 15118 and DIN 70121) in 2021, they didn’t only add the capability for newer Teslas to charge at CCS DCFCs with an adaptor but that they also made it possible for other vehicles to use newer superchargers (subject of course to software updates, agreements with other manufacturers, billing issues, etc.). So why would hardware changes be needed to superchargers manufactured well after 2021?

"also made it possible for other vehicles to use newer superchargers (subject of course to software updates,"

I don't think that is a given. If so, why haven't others been doing it? There's only a handful of Superchargers that allow access to non-Teslas.

1709068758904.png
 
I’m not suggesting that Tesla dropped support for their older (pre-CCS) protocol. I can’t imagine any reason why they would do that.
Ok, then you are saying Tesla didn't switch. They just added CCS support to some vehicles, and some Superchargers. Starting in Europe in 2019. They didn't start adding CCS support to Supercharger hardware in North America until 2023 after other OEMs announced NACS adoption, with Supercharger access.

Shoot they didn't even publish the NACS standard that uses the CCS protocol until the end of 2022.

So why would hardware changes be needed to superchargers manufactured well after 2021?
Because they hadn't added CCS support in North America until later, vehicles in 2022/Superchargers in 2023? Because there was a shortage of the CCS communication chips? (Even after mid-2021 they shipped Model 3s and Model Ys with charge port ECUs without the CCS chip when supplies were short.)
 
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In that case, either Tesla planned this site to not support non-Tesla vehicles and then changed their mind or Tesla planned from the start of the project to install stations with older type circuit boards knowing that they would be changed later. Either of those is possible, but a bit outside of normal operations. Any other possibility?
 
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In that case, either Tesla planned this site to not support non-Tesla vehicles and then changed their mind or Tesla planned from the start of the project to install stations with older type circuit boards knowing that they would be changed later. Either of those is possible, but a bit outside of normal operations. Any other possibility?
I think that it is most likely that they have a stock of V3 charging posts with the old boards. They let the contractor install them and then replace the board before commissioning the site. Do we for sure know there was a board in there? Could the post have been installed without a board and they were just putting one in? (That could indicate a supply chain issue.)
 
I think that it is most likely that they have a stock of V3 charging posts with the old boards. They let the contractor install them and then replace the board before commissioning the site. Do we for sure know there was a board in there? Could the post have been installed without a board and they were just putting one in? (That could indicate a supply chain issue.)
I think this can be answered if @Tyl can explain where he got the notion that these boards were for NACS/CCS support? And why would they be swapping boards at a new site? It makes more sense to need to do that for an old site, presuming some V3s were made without CCS support. Could this be for "Plug and Charge" support instead?
 
In that case, either Tesla planned this site to not support non-Tesla vehicles and then changed their mind or Tesla planned from the start of the project to install stations with older type circuit boards knowing that they would be changed later. Either of those is possible, but a bit outside of normal operations.
You're still saying this under the iron-clad assumption that these pictures of an unknown circuit board replacement for certain means it is to create CCS communication support.
Any other possibility?
Yes, your assumption could just be wrong. And I think it is. You said this site is being built right now. The only ones that didn't already have CCS support were the very old V2 ones (and of course V1, which I think are all gone now). All of the V3 ones that they have been installing for the last few years already have it. So this would be very close to impossible that what they are installing on a new site right now is really old V2 equipment and they are having to upgrade it during the build.
 
You're still saying this under the iron-clad assumption that these pictures of an unknown circuit board replacement for certain means it is to create CCS communication support.

Yes, your assumption could just be wrong. And I think it is. You said this site is being built right now. The only ones that didn't already have CCS support were the very old V2 ones (and of course V1, which I think are all gone now). All of the V3 ones that they have been installing for the last few years already have it. So this would be very close to impossible that what they are installing on a new site right now is really old V2 equipment and they are having to upgrade it during the build.
You appear to be confusing me with Tyl. The report that the circuit boards are being replaced at the Grant Road, Mountain View site is his report, not mine.
 
If they had to manually upgrade the internals for NACS they should have just upgraded the pedestals to V4 with longer cables.

Obviously that’s a much higher cost but they’ll likely have to do it eventually anyways and it would be a better experience for everyone. And third party drivers will easily be able to identify which supercharger is compatible visually instead of having to check their app/navigation.
 
If they had to manually upgrade the internals for NACS they should have just upgraded the pedestals to V4 with longer cables.

Obviously that’s a much higher cost but they’ll likely have to do it eventually anyways and it would be a better experience for everyone. And third party drivers will easily be able to identify which supercharger is compatible visually instead of having to check their app/navigation.
Likely not feasible. I think it would require digging up the concrete and re-locating conduits, as well as running additional wiring. Both of those things would probably involve permits and electricians, vs. just a Tesla service person replacing some internals on the existing posts. So, not only would it cost a lot more it would take forever, and have significant downtime for the site. (I suppose they could simplify it a little if they made a V4 retrofit post that fits the V3 mounting pads, but I think some of them are poured in and not just mounted...)

As far as making it so they don't have to check their app/navigation, I'm not sure we want to encourage that. We want them to use the navigation so that their battery can be preconditioned when they arrive. (For vehicles that support such advanced technology.)