How many options does Elon have to exercise? Of the 10 tranches he gets noted in the 6/30/2012 10-Q, each is only .5% of the total shares and the market cap isn't high enough to trigger any of them yet. Elon has lots of money, but unless he's completely cashing out of Solar City or some such, I thought it's mostly tied up in his companies.
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Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)
- Thread starter jvonbokel
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- Tesla Inc.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I made this mistake too. The options in question are a batch he got in 2009: 6.7M shares at $6.63.
This seems like a logical "if one then two" and would be huge for the company, but by my recollections, Tesla delivered VIN ~7000 recently. If they are done with 10k, then they're done building 1.5 months worth of deliveries. I would typically disagree that someone would turn down 50+ million bucks, but Elon did reinvest everything he made from the paypal sale into new companies.
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this would be close to a quarter billion, right? (someone check my math?)
Going to modify my original guess. Expansion of the Supercharger network through some form of commercialization of it. Could be a combination of joint ventures (Marriott, Hyatt, Cracker Barrel) and private licensing. And Elon would obtain the first individual license for a private Supercharger station.
I think it will be a combination of the options listed in the poll. Announcement of 10,000th* Model S, completing the vesting of of Elon's options from 2009, which he will then exercise, resulting in a $44M cash injection into Tesla. Then the last step - what does Tesla do with the money - will either be an acceleration/expansion of the Supercharger network or "other", as in something nobody here has yet predicted.
*Do Canadian cars have a separate VIN sequence, by any chance?
*Do Canadian cars have a separate VIN sequence, by any chance?
I think you left out the decimal in the quantity: 6.7 (million) * $6.63 = $44.421 (million)
Citizen-T
Active Member
Tesla: 6.7M * $6.63 = ~$44.4M
Elon: (~$44 - $6.63) * 6.7M = $250M (a quarter billion)
Ahh, I get it now. That doesn't make any sense to me though. I don't know why someone would say they are putting their money where they're mouth is and then cash out a bunch of stock options. Plus, if he teased an announcement on Twitter (thus raising the share price) and then sold a large quantity of shares, I think the SEC would flip out.
But if he sells them he pays tax on them. Not efficient. If he adds money he dilutes shareholdings. That's why I prefer the idea of waiving the options as "v big way". He wouldn't actually be putting more money in, unless he bought at the public offering, but he would be taking a bath by turning the options down.
Albatross! Albatross! Albatross!
Because waiving so Tesla can pay off the DoE loan says:
- We are strong, we can survive without government favoritism.
- I am a really awesome guy.
(- More cynical: we don't have any burdensome conditions from the DoE so now we can manufacture future cars cheaper in China.)
Using the money for vehicle development costs is just saying that the model's not working and shows weakness, but covering "start-up" costs is OK. So other than the loan, I can only think of the Supercharger network as a one-time cost the market would forgive.
If it's not either of those, I either don't have a clue or will be rather disappointed.
mitch672
Active Member
It would if he's giving all of the stock back to the Tesla treasury, how many CEOs "give" back 250 million+ to their companies?
Hopefully before the market opens. I don't want it to be after the market closes. I'd like to the price impact to be know sooner rather than later.
For General Production, I don't think so because the early Production Canadian VIN numbers were in the 6000 range.
The Canadian Sigs VINs started at 2000, so they seem to have been segregated. They were after all built after all the US Sigs were done (and some US General Production).
Elon tweeted "First profitable Q for Tesla" (both GAAP and non-GAAP according to the blog) but then ten minutes later tweeted "imo the Tues news is arguably more important.". If the announcement tomorrow is more important than profitability I really wonder if it concerns Gen 3. As I previously stated, though, the delay of Model X is causing my hopes of Gen 3 news or reveal to be slim-to-none.
While the repayment of the AVTM loan would be huge, Tesla has already said they plan to repay it by 2017. I don't think a repayment via Elon's cash would be a smart business move at this time. A major expansion of the Supercharger stations would be awesome but I wouldn't qualify that as "arguably more important" than profitability given Tesla's previous roadmaps.
While the repayment of the AVTM loan would be huge, Tesla has already said they plan to repay it by 2017. I don't think a repayment via Elon's cash would be a smart business move at this time. A major expansion of the Supercharger stations would be awesome but I wouldn't qualify that as "arguably more important" than profitability given Tesla's previous roadmaps.
Clprenz
Member
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) will hold a conference call on April 2, 2013 at 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time (5:00pm Eastern Standard Time) for media, analysts and investors to make an announcement. Following remarks from Elon Musk, Tesla Motors co-founder and CEO, media and analysts are invited to participate in a question and answer session.
What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Announcement When: Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Time: 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time / 5:00pm Eastern Standard Time
Press Release Will Be Available At: Press Center | Tesla Motors
Webcast: ir.teslamotors.com (live and replay) Live Call: (877) 312-5519 / (760) 666-3771 (International)
Approximately two hours after the call, a digital recording of the Q&A session will be available for a period of two weeks following the date of the call. To access the recording, please dial in to one of the following numbers using the conference ID shown.
Replay Dial-In #: (855) 859-2056 Conference ID#: 31702733
International Replay Dial-In #: (404) 537-3406 Conference ID# 31702733
The webcast will also be archived on the Company's website for a period of one year following the date of the call.
I am sad to say guys, this seems to a financial, based off the fact that there is no live stream
What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Announcement When: Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Time: 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time / 5:00pm Eastern Standard Time
Press Release Will Be Available At: Press Center | Tesla Motors
Webcast: ir.teslamotors.com (live and replay) Live Call: (877) 312-5519 / (760) 666-3771 (International)
Approximately two hours after the call, a digital recording of the Q&A session will be available for a period of two weeks following the date of the call. To access the recording, please dial in to one of the following numbers using the conference ID shown.
Replay Dial-In #: (855) 859-2056 Conference ID#: 31702733
International Replay Dial-In #: (404) 537-3406 Conference ID# 31702733
The webcast will also be archived on the Company's website for a period of one year following the date of the call.
I am sad to say guys, this seems to a financial, based off the fact that there is no live stream
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
This seems to me to be the most likely scenario, something related to Gen 3. The only inconsistency with that theory is that very recently (I think in his TED talk interview) Elon stated that it would 3-4 years before they got Gen 3 on the road (which probably means closer to 4-5 years based on past predictions of when cars would roll out). I'd love for them to move that up, but given that they moved Model X back a year to focus on the S, it seems inconsistent that they'd do a big push to get Gen 3 on the road much sooner than anticipated.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I'm going with a combo expansion of the supercharger network / sc technology, along with a deep pocketed finance source for building out the network at a dramatically faster and more aggressive pace. As long as I'm guessing wildly, I'm going with some kind of partnership with Solar City who is already good at raising large amounts of money, in order to capitalize something now and generate a long term income stream. I don't know how they're going to monetize the free network, but the best I can guess is that some chunk of SC revenue for each car goes to the deep pockets in exchange for them capitalizing the buildout investment now. And Solar City seems like the most trustworthy choice to build a mutually beneficial relationship with.
Agree and agree. More superchargers doesn't feel like a big enough deal given what Tesla has already said. Paying off the loans would be big news, though largely symbolic. It does seem silly to pay off low cost money. I felt the same way about the accelerated pay back. Is Ford or Nissan doing similar? For some reason they don't get put under the same microscope. It would be nice, however, to silence those critics. Given that Fisker is about to go Solyndra on their loan, would be great to preempt those who will try to say "Tesla is next."
Clprenz
Member
It is a conference call, Tesla always calls it a webcast. I am now betting on battery technology, or acquiring a new business. also they will release new supercharging locations. No new car, but he could talk about upgrading all cars battery technology from say April 1 forward
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