Tesla told me my test drive is not happening because they have no cars!

[jonquiljo]

I kind of laugh when I read how ICE manufacturers in the next few years are going to have dozens of models of EVs for sale. Kind of reminds me of when Apple lost its marketing way and had lots of different models with different pricing configurations. There were also for a period of time third party OS computers as well. People were confused what to buy and the fact that most sales people in stores like Best Buy couldn’t really differentiate them either didn’t help Apple. Finally they got smart, realized the insanity of having too many models that fractured their manufacturing and marketing efforts and went back to model basics.

That’s where Tesla is excelling right now. They perfected the look and features of each model with the ability to mass produce a few models. To keep prices down for buyers and margins good enough for Tesla, they limited trims etc. I think it is foolish for these legacy manufacturers entering the EV market to be spreading their offerings so thin. Something doesn’t appeal and sell well, like some of the current early released EV cars with small batteries etc., they’ll be left with vehicles they’ll have to discount and lose on margins. If they are still working or tied to the dealership model, that will factor in to sales as well if there’s no incentive for them to sell all these models.

I think everyone has to realize that ICE cars are not going to go away in the USA anytime soon. It will be longer than the forecast 20 years. Europe and other countries, perhaps - but not the US.

Remember, we are still not a participant in the Paris climate accord. People blame that on the clown at the top - but a lot of people must agree of there would be major outrage.

Yes, in California and some other regions, EV's have widespread adoption. But there are parts of the country that still want their old - gas burning clunker. They really do. People are slow to change and our government is not doing much to change that.

I do agree that the upcoming "competition" is mostly inferior and not trying hard enough. No one (including Tesla) is trying to sell a lower priced EV that many more people can afford (i.e - around $25-30K). Even Ford blew that one. That would make it easier for many people to switch. I still maintain that the average person cannot afford a Tesla still. Maybe used, but you need more new cars to develop a used market. Cars with 120-150 miles of rated range are just not feasible. It will eventually change, but the market is not going to change for quite some time. The Model 3 was a start. Now we need a Model 2!

 

[raptor5244]

The Model 3 was a start. Now we need a Model 2!

Agreed, we need a $20-30k EV but I am not sure Tesla can handle the additional customer volume just yet. They need to keep beefing up production, service centers, technicians, superchargers, etc. This is where a company like Honda or Toyota could make an impact if they really wanted. They could release an EV Civic/EV Corolla but they just don't seem to want to do it. Toyota is hung up on the hybrid crap and Honda just has ugly looking hybrids or plug-in hybrids.

Ford is at least trying to get in the game by leveraging their Mustang and F-150 brands. I wonder if many of these existing auto manufacturers will still be around in 10 years if they don't adapt. They need direct ordering, remote service, replace traditional sales vultures with "auto consultants" (basically techies). They need a charging network and most importantly they need a proper user interface. Tesla has changed the game in how we interact with the vehicle with their software and mobile app as well as the over the air updates that enable them to keep improving the fleet.

 

[SMAlset]

I think everyone has to realize that ICE cars are not going to go away in the USA anytime soon. It will be longer than the forecast 20 years. Europe and other countries, perhaps - but not the US.

Remember, we are still not a participant in the Paris climate accord. People blame that on the clown at the top - but a lot of people must agree of there would be major outrage.

Yes, in California and some other regions, EV's have widespread adoption. But there are parts of the country that still want their old - gas burning clunker. They really do. People are slow to change and our government is not doing much to change that.

I do agree that the upcoming "competition" is mostly inferior and not trying hard enough. No one (including Tesla) is trying to sell a lower priced EV that many more people can afford (i.e - around $25-30K). Even Ford blew that one. That would make it easier for many people to switch. I still maintain that the average person cannot afford a Tesla still. Maybe used, but you need more new cars to develop a used market. Cars with 120-150 miles of rated range are just not feasible. It will eventually change, but the market is not going to change for quite some time. The Model 3 was a start. Now we need a Model 2!

Since I do believe Tesla and Elon have a sincere goal to make EVs affordable for everyone, I think they are committed to doing that through improvements, like reduced wiring and new battery advances, and that they will pass that savings on. If their new batteries coming up can save them money and still give them a good profit margin, I feel they will continue to pass that savings on to their lower end models. I wouldn't be surprised if they consider adding cloth seats to the SR/SR+ models finally but if that cost savings can’t be realized they simply wouldn’t do it just to differentiate the cars. Volume seat production equates to savings.

I saw an article a little while ago where someone at Nissan said they don’t want their Leaf to be thought of as only a great used car EV option and one you can buy discounted. It has gotten that viewpoint if people can’t afford a Bolt or Model 3 new. It is tough right now when trying to produce EVs with range at under $35K.

I have no illusions that people won’t try to hold onto their ICE vehicles or that everyone will want a Tesla even if they can afford one, and that’s okay. Maintenance and fuel may eventually convince them otherwise. I do expect Tesla will be the one to lead the way for less expensive models. Not forgetting however that Tesla as well as some other players want to see people not really own cars and instead use fleet autonomous vehicles to take them around. I’m not a fan of this and point to lots of people not wanting to rely on taxis, ubers and lifts or buses and trains. In fact as a counterpoint Elon has said once the cars are there with full self-driving (assume L5) the cars will be too expensive for people to buy. I also find that a kind of scary thought.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Most all cars need to make a business case for their production before assets can be allocated.

 

[MarkBrokeIt]

They need a charging network

The charging networks exist, and have a much larger footprint than the SC network. The VW settlement is helping that footprint expand even further.

A current problem (which Nissan solved at one point) is that there are too many separate networks.

 

[Akikiki]

While I agree with you that the average person cannot afford a Tesla, there's also just as many that can't afford a new Camry or new F150. Many of those have trouble buying even a used one. I don't want too see a cheapen EV until someone invents the 10 cent per KW battery. We don't want to see other manuf's taking the shortcut of producing a 50 mile range EV just to get the price down. There might be a few early purchases, but soon no one would want it. And all EVs are guilty by association in the media's eyes when some have short range.

We do need Tesla and other manuf to continue to innovate as its one of the engines that drives trade-in and new purchases. Those trade-ins and private sales to new EV converts help these folks buy EVs even though they can't afford a new Tesla or other EVs. As Tesla builds S's, X's, X, Y and Cybertruck, the those new car/truck fence-sitters will begin to take a harder look at non-ICE products. Yes, there will still be a market for fuel guzzlers. I'm too old, but maybe the next generation will see the EV minority numbers turn upside down and the ICE become the niche market. We are doing our part.

 

[Akikiki]

The charging networks exist, and have a much larger footprint than the SC network. The VW settlement is helping that footprint expand even further.
A current problem (which Nissan solved at one point) is that there are too many separate networks.

Ahhh, you wait and see, VW will turn this rotten apple into apple pie and make money out of it. And they've done a pretty good job of concealing their name in Electrify America.
Separate charging networks are not a big deal. No more of an issue than different gasoline companies selling. If you think its a pain to need different charging network memberships, - give it time. When they mature, we will see reciprocal card agreements across charging network like you see when you go to an ATM. Notice all the different card brands that are accepted? The point is, the dust has not settled on charging stations or networks. I am grateful that Tesla has started its own network - even though we don't have a single Tesla charging station in Hawai'i.

 

[Gordon87]

My answer might be different at the end of next year, but since the US tax credit expires 12/31/2019 for Tesla buyers, right now it is more important to prioritize deliveries to purchasers this year and delay test drives until new cars come in early next year. The 2019 customers waiting for delivery need to be prioritized right now.

Come the end of next year, buyers might be able to wait a few weeks before taking delivery, allowing Tesla service/sales centers to retain a demo model. But not this year.

 

[SMAlset]

Agreed, we need a $20-30k EV but I am not sure Tesla can handle the additional customer volume just yet. They need to keep beefing up production, service centers, technicians, superchargers, etc. This is where a company like Honda or Toyota could make an impact if they really wanted. They could release an EV Civic/EV Corolla but they just don't seem to want to do it. Toyota is hung up on the hybrid crap and Honda just has ugly looking hybrids or plug-in hybrids.

Ford is at least trying to get in the game by leveraging their Mustang and F-150 brands. I wonder if many of these existing auto manufacturers will still be around in 10 years if they don't adapt. They need direct ordering, remote service, replace traditional sales vultures with "auto consultants" (basically techies). They need a charging network and most importantly they need a proper user interface. Tesla has changed the game in how we interact with the vehicle with their software and mobile app as well as the over the air updates that enable them to keep improving the fleet.

I saw an article just the other day when a Honda CEO said he didn’t see EV sales taking off. I looked at the EV car he was pictured with and thought “I can see why”. Now just my opinion but you have to have a beautiful compelling look that people want on the outside to get them to look at what it has on the inside. Tesla has that. Clearly I found the Honda car fugly (up there with the BMW i3 in my book) and can agree with him on Honda sales of EVs probably not taking off dramatically but not for the reason he says. I don’t see anything on that car I like even if it had a bigger battery and could see in the showroom.

Honda CEO says ‘There will be no dramatic increase in EV demand’

 

[jonquiljo]

I saw an article just the other day when a Honda CEO said he didn’t see EV sales taking off. I looked at the EV car he was pictured with and thought “I can see why”. Now just my opinion but you have to have a beautiful compelling look that people want on the outside to get them to look at what it has on the inside. Tesla has that. Clearly I found the Honda car fugly (up there with the BMW i3 in my book) and can agree with him on Honda sales of EVs probably not taking off dramatically but not for the reason he says. I don’t see anything on that car I like even if it had a bigger battery and could see in the showroom.

Honda CEO says ‘There will be no dramatic increase in EV demand’

Good article. I think a point that can be taken from it is that electric vehicles are more quickly adopted when governments force its adoption. Europe is often cited for strict emissions standards - and the US is not. So it becomes a political initiative - something this country may not quite be ready to accept.

Europe's strict emissions standards and incentives are what is putting Tesla on the map over there. Also, gas is quite a few times more expensive than in the US.

Basically our government is failing us. So companies like Honda can approach the US with hybrids because emissions goals are far lower here.

 

[Knightshade]

The main reason ICE cars aren't going away anytime soon is it's physically impossible to make enough EVs to replace em.

There's ~80 million cars sold annually.

Tesla MIGHT build around 350 thousand this year.

And maybe they hit 1 million in 2020 if everything goes perfect.

That's still barely more than one percent of total car sales worldwide and they're mostly out of battery supply and factory space at that point... (especially if they're serious about ever getting the solar/energy business ramped up again)


And everybody else among the legacy carmakers is miles behind Tesla in EV production capability.


And the biggest reason is battery starvation.... Ford "hopes" to be able to make a mere 50,000 Mach Es in 2020, and most of those are going to europe.... the Audi Etron already had to cut production targets (which weren't any better than Fords) due to battery shortages.

Even Tesla has said they're having to starve their own energy subsidiary to feed all the batteries they can into cars and it's not enough.



There's a fair amount of investment in new production going on- but it's not fast- and it's nowhere remotely near enough to replace even half of annual ICE vehicles sold for at least the next 10+ years.... let alone the majority of vehicles.

 

[OCR1]

The reason Apple products work so well is because Apple designs both the hardware and the software, so the end product is highly polished because it was designed by the same company. The Microsoft world suffered for many years because the PC was designed by many different companies, then third party peripherals were added, and somehow it was all expected to work together with the Windows operating system. When it didn’t the finger pointing started and the customer was left to sort it all out. Now we see Microsoft building their own Surface computers and the product is very well designed and a solid competitor to the IPad and MacBook.

The reason Tesla cars are so great is because Tesla designs both the hardware and the software, just like Apple. Legacy auto manufacturers are never going to have the sophistication to compete with a Silicon Valley tech company like Tesla on the software. They may end up with good hardware but it all has to work together to make an elegant product. Tesla is far ahead of anyone else in the EV space because of this.

If anyone successfully dethrones Tesla in the EV world I suspect it will be another tech company, not a legacy car maker.

 

[TampaRich]

I think everyone has to realize that ICE cars are not going to go away in the USA anytime soon. It will be longer than the forecast 20 years. Europe and other countries, perhaps - but not the US.

Remember, we are still not a participant in the Paris climate accord. People blame that on the clown at the top - but a lot of people must agree of there would be major outrage.

Yes, in California and some other regions, EV's have widespread adoption. But there are parts of the country that still want their old - gas burning clunker. They really do. People are slow to change and our government is not doing much to change that...

I think 200,000 Cybertruck pre-orders demonstrates demand for electric vehicles even by traditional ICE truck owners. It feels like the awareness of the benefits of electric vehicles and adoption of such is accelerating. The cost justification is too compelling to ignore or dismiss. All modes of road transportation are being addressed, cars, trucks, buses, semis. I predict 90% adoption in 10 years.

 

[jboy210]

I think we just need to look at other transformations. Cell phone replacing landlines. Automobiles replacing Horses. Both took less than 15 years for the previous technology to be supplanted. Also both followed the "S" curve of adoption. With some small numbers of early adopters changing first. Followed by a rapid increase in the pace of changeover. And then the "new" technology becoming the standard technology.

And at the beginning of the S curve many people saying the technology would take a much longer than it did to become the "standard". Or maybe Henry Ford said it best, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

 

[m3-ricardo]

if its not bolted down, they are selling it.

 

[jboy210]

I think 200,000 Cybertruck pre-orders demonstrates demand for electric vehicles even by traditional ICE truck owners. It feels like the awareness of the benefits of electric vehicles and adoption of such is accelerating. The cost justification is too compelling to ignore or dismiss. All modes of road transportation are being addressed, cars, trucks, buses, semis. I predict 90% adoption in 10 years.

Also, I think the CyberTruck has appealed to a lot of non-traditional pickup buyers. A lot of the people plan on using these more like SUVs than trucks. The Cybertrucks has a retractable lockable bed cover and frunk so you can use it for shopping and day to day chores like an SUV. And it has the acceleration of sports car versus the stodgy labored acceleration of a ICE truck or SUV so it is fun to drive.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Made an appointment Yesterday for Next Monday to test drive a Model 3 Performance. Got an email today that said:

“We have sold all of our test drive vehicles and do not have a vehicle available for test drives. We would be happy to keep your appointment as a consultation with a sales advisor.”

Do they only have a specific vehicles for test drives? How does this happen?

If you ask on this thread or create a new thread for a current Model 3 owner to give you a test drive in their car, I’m fairly certain you will get multiple offers to do so. I don’t live in your area, but I would certainly offer you a test drive if I were local. Create a thread with the area you live in in the title asking for a test drive...

 

[Cosmacelf]

The reason Apple products work so well is because Apple designs both the hardware and the software, so the end product is highly polished because it was designed by the same company. The Microsoft world suffered for many years because the PC was designed by many different companies, then third party peripherals were added, and somehow it was all expected to work together with the Windows operating system. When it didn’t the finger pointing started and the customer was left to sort it all out. Now we see Microsoft building their own Surface computers and the product is very well designed and a solid competitor to the IPad and MacBook.

The reason Tesla cars are so great is because Tesla designs both the hardware and the software, just like Apple. Legacy auto manufacturers are never going to have the sophistication to compete with a Silicon Valley tech company like Tesla on the software. They may end up with good hardware but it all has to work together to make an elegant product. Tesla is far ahead of anyone else in the EV space because of this.

If anyone successfully dethrones Tesla in the EV world I suspect it will be another tech company, not a legacy car maker.

Good post about business strategy. Both strategies, Microsoft’s and Apple’s, worked in their own way. Microsoft leveraged competition to have the lowest priced and most diverse hardware ecosystem. There was/is value in that for a general purpose PC. Apple eschewed low price and expanded capability instead going for a highly integrated hardware system that worked better together.

Apple’s strategy relegated it to niche status for a long time when it only sold PCs. Their first foray into other hardware platforms was the Newton in the 90s (remember that?). It suffered for a lot of reasons, but most notably it didn’t have any particular integration with the Macs of the time.

When Apple introduced their first really successful consumer product, the iPod, it wasn’t anything special compared to its music playing peers BUT it had iTunes Store integration as well as Macintosh integration. That integration was important. Since then, of course, they have expanded that tight integration over their iPads, iPhones, etc. I would venture that a huge percentage of MacBook and iMac sales these days is due to ecosystem integration with people’s iPhones.

Bill Gates historically always pointed to the strength of his diverse hardware vendors for creating large market share. However even he mused that “maybe Steve Jobs was right and there was something to integrating the hardware and software” when it came to consumer electronic devices like a phone and tablet. The Microsoft music player (Zune) and Microsoft OS powered phones never went anywhere.

Note there are two things mixed up here. One is the integrated software ecosystem like iMessage, iTunes, iCloud that works across all devices. The other is manufacturing both the hardware and software in one company. There is no reason, in theory, why you can’t have the former while having diverse hardware manufacturers. Apple could, still today, publish its APIs and let PCs send iMessages, but it doesn’t and won’t since it wants to protect its hardware sales and their premium pricing.

So, Tesla. Tesla is starting to show us an ecosystem. Their killer ecosystem “app” is their Supercharger network. Other EV manufacturers are trying to use the “Microsoft” model of having third parties build and run charging networks. It isn’t working out well so far.

But to your point, there is no doubt Tesla is also enjoying the fruits of being a complete hardware and software vertical integrator for a car. As other car companies have demonstrated, the market hasn’t and probably can’t provide a connected car with a great infotainment screen and applications.

 

[traxila]

It happened because Tesla focused on selling every last possible car to meet short term sales goals for their stockholders instead of worrying about the longer term effects of not having cars for future customers to test drive. So they sold one more car this month, but potentially lost dozens of new customers to other car manufacturers since those customers can’t test drive.
Yes there is the seven day return policy but that isn’t the way to build a sustainable business.

Cause that is what happens. When people are told no on a product because it is sold out due to overwhelming demand they take umbrage and walk away never to return.

 

[traxila]

The main reason ICE cars aren't going away anytime soon is it's physically impossible to make enough EVs to replace em.

There's ~80 million cars sold annually.

Tesla MIGHT build around 350 thousand this year.

And maybe they hit 1 million in 2020 if everything goes perfect.

That's still barely more than one percent of total car sales worldwide and they're mostly out of battery supply and factory space at that point... (especially if they're serious about ever getting the solar/energy business ramped up again)


And everybody else among the legacy carmakers is miles behind Tesla in EV production capability.


And the biggest reason is battery starvation.... Ford "hopes" to be able to make a mere 50,000 Mach Es in 2020, and most of those are going to europe.... the Audi Etron already had to cut production targets (which weren't any better than Fords) due to battery shortages.

Even Tesla has said they're having to starve their own energy subsidiary to feed all the batteries they can into cars and it's not enough.



There's a fair amount of investment in new production going on- but it's not fast- and it's nowhere remotely near enough to replace even half of annual ICE vehicles sold for at least the next 10+ years.... let alone the majority of vehicles.

Yes, this is where the OEMs are dragging their feet the most and shrugging on the effects. Batteries. Where are they? An unlimited supply would basically guarantee 100% BEV in ten years. Would also guarantee multiple OEM bankruptcies.

Seems like inflection point may be here though. Battery investment can happen faster than anyone believes, just like all the other technology revolutions that happened faster than anyone believed. The industrial infrastructure and productivity capacity of the world is greater than ever and growing. When the lemmings pile in it will be a sight to behold.

It will be driven by consumers who walk away from ICE cars, because the ample examples of BEVs on the road are so much better. No one will want an ICE much in the same way no one wanted a BEV ten years ago. Disruption is....disruptive.