Tesla told me my test drive is not happening because they have no cars!

[Knightshade]

I think we just need to look at other transformations. Cell phone replacing landlines. Automobiles replacing Horses. Both took less than 15 years for the previous technology to be supplanted. Also both followed the "S" curve of adoption. With some small numbers of early adopters changing first. Followed by a rapid increase in the pace of changeover. And then the "new" technology becoming the standard technology.

But in that case that timeline is physically impossible

There aren't enough batteries, nor even enough battery factories on the drawing board, to take "less than 15 years" for previous tech to be supplanted.

(nor did any such thing happen quite as fast as you suggest with the other 2 while we're at it... the first consumer cell phones were out in 1983...It was 22 years before there were more cell phone lines than land lines.... and the first consumer automobile was ~1886... even in urban centers like NYC cars would not outnumber horses until...huh...22 years later actually- 1908.... and obviously in most of the country it'd be much longer (due credit to Ford here that by 30 years post-automobile they were pretty well the majority way people got around)

In both cases though there wasn't really any physical resource constraining building as many as needed to meet demand like there is with EVs and lack of batteries.

The first genuinely "modern" mass-produced EV would probably be the Nissan Leaf in 2010... 15 years gets us to 2025. A time when most car makers will still be majority ICE in their models, and certainly by volume of cars built by a large margin.


The most optimistic projections of EV adoption, assuming all the promised battery factory investments actually all go through perfectly, still have EVs as the minority of cars (maybe in the 30-40% range of new vehicles sold) in 2030.

And that's just new vehicles... EVs would still represent less than 10% of ALL cars in the road at that point.


barring some massive breakthrough in battery chemistry that either lets you build them WITHOUT any of the several rareish metals that they require and limit production, or that magically lets you go way further with way less battery in the first place, it's gonna be a LOT longer than 15 years before EVs are even 50% of new cars (and much much longer before they're even 50% of all cars on the road) because it's physically impossible to do otherwise.

 

[eevee-fan]

High DEMAND with constrained SUPPLY would mean car makers can keep their prices high, thus more profit.

 

[traxila]

But in that case that timeline is physically impossible

There aren't enough batteries, nor even enough battery factories on the drawing board, to take "less than 15 years" for previous tech to be supplanted.

(nor did any such thing happen quite as fast as you suggest with the other 2 while we're at it... the first consumer cell phones were out in 1983...It was 22 years before there were more cell phone lines than land lines.... and the first consumer automobile was ~1886... even in urban centers like NYC cars would not outnumber horses until...huh...22 years later actually- 1908.... and obviously in most of the country it'd be much longer (due credit to Ford here that by 30 years post-automobile they were pretty well the majority way people got around)

In both cases though there wasn't really any physical resource constraining building as many as needed to meet demand like there is with EVs and lack of batteries.

The first genuinely "modern" mass-produced EV would probably be the Nissan Leaf in 2010... 15 years gets us to 2025. A time when most car makers will still be majority ICE in their models, and certainly by volume of cars built by a large margin.


The most optimistic projections of EV adoption, assuming all the promised battery factory investments actually all go through perfectly, still have EVs as the minority of cars (maybe in the 30-40% range of new vehicles sold) in 2030.

And that's just new vehicles... EVs would still represent less than 10% of ALL cars in the road at that point.


barring some massive breakthrough in battery chemistry that either lets you build them WITHOUT any of the several rareish metals that they require and limit production, or that magically lets you go way further with way less battery in the first place, it's gonna be a LOT longer than 15 years before EVs are even 50% of new cars (and much much longer before they're even 50% of all cars on the road) because it's physically impossible to do otherwise.

What you are saying has merit. I am not on record to say you are wrong. But do not underestimate the ability of industries to shift in crisis. The raw materials are there.

And if Tesla can indeed ditch the drying ovens production can ramp exponentially.

Rooting for Battery Day!

 

[raptor5244]

if its not bolted down, they are selling it.

 

[raptor5244]

What you are saying has merit. I am not on record to say you are wrong. But do not underestimate the ability of industries to shift in crisis. The raw materials are there.

And if Tesla can indeed ditch the drying ovens production can ramp exponentially.

Rooting for Battery Day!

I wish the transition could go faster but it will take a while. The existing ICE vehicles on the road tend to last longer nowadays as well. So, we have 10-15 years of Honda Civics and Corollas to age out. I would expect to see a steady increase in BEV sales moving forward as the other manufacturers get into the EV game. Eventually, we will reach a tipping point where it would be foolish to buy an ICE based vehicle when a comparable EV exists. That is kind of the case right now for a small/mid-size sedan. I don't understand why someone would buy a loaded up Camry or Accord for $30k+ right now hen you could buy a Model 3 instead for similar money once you factor in the TCO. You get a much better driving vehicle, fuel and maintenance savings, much better tech with OTA updates, longer warranty, etc.

 

[jboy210]

But in that case that timeline is physically impossible

There aren't enough batteries, nor even enough battery factories on the drawing board, to take "less than 15 years" for previous tech to be supplanted.

(nor did any such thing happen quite as fast as you suggest with the other 2 while we're at it... the first consumer cell phones were out in 1983...It was 22 years before there were more cell phone lines than land lines.... and the first consumer automobile was ~1886... even in urban centers like NYC cars would not outnumber horses until...huh...22 years later actually- 1908.... and obviously in most of the country it'd be much longer (due credit to Ford here that by 30 years post-automobile they were pretty well the majority way people got around)

In both cases though there wasn't really any physical resource constraining building as many as needed to meet demand like there is with EVs and lack of batteries.

The first genuinely "modern" mass-produced EV would probably be the Nissan Leaf in 2010... 15 years gets us to 2025. A time when most car makers will still be majority ICE in their models, and certainly by volume of cars built by a large margin.


The most optimistic projections of EV adoption, assuming all the promised battery factory investments actually all go through perfectly, still have EVs as the minority of cars (maybe in the 30-40% range of new vehicles sold) in 2030.

And that's just new vehicles... EVs would still represent less than 10% of ALL cars in the road at that point.


barring some massive breakthrough in battery chemistry that either lets you build them WITHOUT any of the several rareish metals that they require and limit production, or that magically lets you go way further with way less battery in the first place, it's gonna be a LOT longer than 15 years before EVs are even 50% of new cars (and much much longer before they're even 50% of all cars on the road) because it's physically impossible to do otherwise.

Depends on the technology. Remember NASA said landing a booster after launch was for Sci-fi only. It took someone with vision to say they were wrong and the cost savings would be very large.

Whose to say some bright scientists cannot come with a way to make batteries using seawater which would remove many rare earth metal constraints.
Full Page Reload
(BTW, this article really is on the IEEE website. There is something wacky with the message program or the IEEEs site. Sorry!)

IMHO, we are only at the beginning of where battery technology will go.

 

[MichaelP90DL]

View attachment 494212

For the record, that image was adapted from a WWII poster designed to bolster morale in Britain. Thousands were printed, then it was decided to not deploy them. The only reason you see these now is that some archivist (I think it was) came across one, photographed it and the rest is history. As I recall, the original text was: KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

 

[Knightshade]

No, I get that- heck I said that- if someone invents some new magic battery tech the timeline might change.... but we've been hearing "MAGIC NEW BATTERY TECH IN LAB- DETAILS SCANT" which is basically what your link says, for years and years... and none of it has really gotten out of those labs.

Lithium Ion has been in commercial use since 1991....improvements have been steady but largely incremental not revolutionary.


But until this MAGIC BATTERY stuff gets out of labs everyone is heavily constrained.


in the case of say, automobiles or cell phones (with their relatively primitive and small batteries), there was no fundamental resource constraint on making the product, and that still took at least a couple of decades before it was even a majority in the most advanced placed.... in this case there is a very fundamental constraint- there's simply nowhere near enough batteries- and nowhere near enough even on the drawing board factory and raw materials wise- to make BEVs a majority anywhere near as quickly based on everything that exists today.

So even if we had a majority of new car buyers WANTING a BEV- they won't be able to get them- because nowhere near that many can be built, and that'll still be true 10 years from now barring said magic tech breakthrough.

 

[jboy210]

No, I get that- heck I said that- if someone invents some new magic battery tech the timeline might change.... but we've been hearing "MAGIC NEW BATTERY TECH IN LAB- DETAILS SCANT" which is basically what your link says, for years and years... and none of it has really gotten out of those labs.

Lithium Ion has been in commercial use since 1991....improvements have been steady but largely incremental not revolutionary.


But until this MAGIC BATTERY stuff gets out of labs everyone is heavily constrained.


in the case of say, automobiles or cell phones (with their relatively primitive and small batteries), there was no fundamental resource constraint on making the product, and that still took at least a couple of decades before it was even a majority in the most advanced placed.... in this case there is a very fundamental constraint- there's simply nowhere near enough batteries- and nowhere near enough even on the drawing board factory and raw materials wise- to make BEVs a majority anywhere near as quickly based on everything that exists today.

So even if we had a majority of new car buyers WANTING a BEV- they won't be able to get them- because nowhere near that many can be built, and that'll still be true 10 years from now barring said magic tech breakthrough.

All progress in areas is driven by interest and funding. And massive investments are being spent by big companies (like IBM in the article, VW, GM, etc), into batteries. And like it or not, research and manufacturing is driven by money. Also, researchers are a bit like mice to cheese, that cheese being funding.

And it is a number game. The more people deeply looking at the problem and the potential returns, the more likely rapid progress on that problem is. Since I don't work in EV batteries I don't know where that would come from. Maybe something tangential.

In my area I could not have imagined that meeting the needs of gamers (turns out fast GPUs for depicting and killing aliens are great at doing the math of NNs) would have results in the AI/ML renaissance. And this renaissance, for better or worse, that since 2011/2012 has given us rapid advancement in self-driving cars, cancer screening and operating techniques, real-time language translation, emotion detection, and global identification of people.

 

[Knightshade]

There's near infinite financial upside to stable controlled net-energy-positive fusion.

It's been just a few years away for generations now, with tons of research and money poured into it since the 1950s.

Interest and funding can move mountains, but they aren't magic.