Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Kalani]

I am sure that Tesla established a German subsidiary for GF Berlin around the time when they purchased the land. Didn´t find a source when I tried to google. Have no idea whether a company can choose to operate under EU instead of German law, would be new to me. @avoigt ?

I have just checked German wikipedia on this (on the EU "European Company" Societas Europea) - it says that the law of the EU country is applied where it is established, i.e. if it is outside Germany, co-determination law does not apply, however, the great German companies that have chosen the SE legal frame have unilaterally decided to keep co-determination, as it is seen as one of the "secrets" of the success of the German consensus-based economic model. Europäische Gesellschaft – Wikipedia

 

[Tslynk67]

Makes huge sense to flip RHD and Asian production to GF3, also the M3's are cheaper to produce from there, so prices in EU could be reduced.

On top of that the quality is said to be better than the US models (due to lessons learned and applied).

 

[kanweg]

RHD.

Distance from China to Australia is also shorter, which may save a dime or two.

Not having to pass through the Panama Canal may save money, although I don’t know how it compares to the Suez Canal.

EDIT: Ha! Panama Canal costs next to nothing. Suez Canal breaks the bank.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Good to see that finally some large countries (France, UK, Germany) are making big strides in EV adoption, although there is still a long way to go. Southern and Eastern Europe unfortunately remain laggards.

 

[jeewee3000]

Is this total market share of all existing cars in said country or only market share of newly purchased/registered vehicles? (Big difference)

 

[UkNorthampton]

Good to see that finally some large countries (France, UK, Germany) are making big strides in EV adoption, although there is still a long way to go. Southern and Eastern Europe unfortunately remain laggards.

Tony Seba said the time to go from 0% adoption to X% is the same as X% to 100% adoption.

I think the X% was 1%. If so, not many years to go for Europe.

The 'adoption' rate / amount is what I'm unsure of. I think that peak car sales has hit (at least for a while). I strongly believe that there will be a gap between the demand for EVs and the supply. I don't think that will be filled by new Icks/ICE/Fossil. Also, later, some form of autonomy, boring tunnels or ride sharing will permanently dent demand for any kind of personal car (younger people I know aren't so bothered about getting driving licences).

So, my thoughts are that 100% EV adoption might amount to just 40 million new cars a year. With 2-3 million Teslas being produced, that's a big chunk of the market. I could see Tesla producing many more, it just depends on time horizons, supply and events.

 

[Christine69420]

Is this total market share of all existing cars in said country or only market share of newly purchased/registered vehicles? (Big difference)

New cars.

 

[Unpilot]

So if maxpain is 382 Stock Option Max Pain
..and no real news comes out today...and macro's don't tank....closing price will be 382.
@wipster can stay in bed. There will be no GJ standard unit movement.

We can forget about the spoon......and just wait till battery day.

 

[Nocturnal]

China export is great news. I asked if anyone knew of plans for this last week or so. Nice.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Speaking of Max pain, did any of y'all check out next week's? The HUUUUUUGE amount of 20 puts? The max pain is 310, which I think those puts help skew.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Does this happen every quarter? Not enough demand?

First time for me in the UK. I posted about it a few pages back. My conclusion was that they were selling demo vehicles, clearing showrooms + maybe a few returns. Not many vehicles, a few were listed as 'In Transit', most were scattered all over the place - mileages were low, only two M3 LR AWD, mostly Performance (39 to 35 available, changed in just a few minutes) plus some SR+

Edit: I keep seeing these adverts

I keep seeing adverts for M3 in stock - when I click on the advert I saw this...

It was obviously written some time ago and so I suspect they don't have stock now.

Can I get a Model 3 now?
Yes. Every 2-3 months Model 3s come over on a couple boats. One came in March and there are a couple left – so you can get one now. Plus, the Model 3s made before the pandemic will come on the next set of boats around June.

When should you order?
Well, if you want a Model 3 before September, order one now. If you want it after September, you should probably order it now as they’ll be scooped-up because COVID paused production. That means the boats after June will most likely have far less cars.

 

[Unpilot]

Speaking of Max pain, did any of y'all check out next week's? The HUUUUUUGE amount of 20 puts? The max pain is 310, which I think those puts help skew.

Yeah I don't think those are going to pay out

 

[Destination]

Will be interesting to see if SP is pushed up at the end of the day from S&P speculators. You’d think some percentage of gambling-minded investors will consider.

 

[ammulder]

So why are analysts hung up on the million mile battery? It could "could profoundly change the auto business model," they say.

I don't see it.

If there are Robotaxis working 12 hour days, sure, a million mile battery makes a difference. Someday, I guess. But in the mean time...

This talk of someone buying a car and then keeping the battery to install in their next car -- that's just nuts. The battery is not THAT big a fraction of the price of the car, and by the time you get a new car, likely there will be better batteries available than what you had in the old one. Not to mention the battery probably won't be physically compatible with your next model (form factor, specific wiring and cooling connections and BMS and all). Would it make sense to keep your smartphone battery to install in the next one?

It could keep a used car functional for longer, but with so much tech in a car, who wants a 20 year old model? Do you want a 20 year old smartphone with great battery life? I don't think so.

I can see enabling V2G with many more lifetime cycles available. Except this requires house-side infrastructure too, and not just a Tesla-branded charging unit, but a way to switch off the grid-to-house connection -- so a major electrical installation. I would love to be able to use my car battery as whole-house backup, but this seems like a pretty long-term play to get any significant uptake.

I can see taking the battery out of an end-of-life car and moving it to stationary storage to live out the remainder of it's "million miles." But what is this worth, a couple thousand per car, and only once a substantial number of Teslas start reaching end-of-life? Another long-term play.

A million mile battery would be a nice indicator that Tesla still has a R&D edge, I guess.

But at Battery Day, I'm WAY more excited to hear about how they're going to scale battery production. Why do the analysts seem oblivious to this?

 

[RobStark]

 

[Vad42]

Speaking of Max pain, did any of y'all check out next week's? The HUUUUUUGE amount of 20 puts? The max pain is 310, which I think those puts help skew.

Pffft. That's nothing. Take a look at the number of $1 puts for 01/15/2021.

 

[Unpilot]

Why do the analysts seem oblivious to this?

IMHO it is because they still see EV's as a niche. There is I believe still a large segment of the wall street CEO types that hope this will all just go away.

When they talk to these "analysts" about EV's I would bet they use every opportunity to denigrate them.
Tesla has basically crashed into a large ( and growing) segment of business's and threatens to make life miserable for these folks.

They would prefer if we would just go away so they can continue to make cool looking grills and cup holders.

 

[Nocturnal]

CNBC - today:

It's nice to get validation on my thoughts that this supposed snub will just push more investors to look elsewhere. I'm not just being spiteful. Rules are important and I don't like secret groups of special people who decide things.

 

[tinyrodent]