Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

But yeah, seems he is much more into the product development (especially Semi, his favorite project) and production stuff.

The Semi is probably the most exciting project that Tesla has right now.
If they do it fast and right, I may forgive Elon for the time wasted on his steampunk huge pickup.... ;-)

(seriously tho: Semi, Y, Tesla Energy, Buffalo GF2, Shangai GF3 are serious, very impactful projects.
They fulfill the mission, bring stability to the business and "look good" for outsiders. Pet projects is not something we need right now at 195$ per share. I just hope Elon delays it, we need him focused on the important stuff.)

 

[ZachShahan]

Sure on a 'Units' basis. But on a 'Revenue' basis, Model 3 likely outsold Civic+Camry combined (or close to it). All with zero gas and zero pollution.

So where's the civic pride, Honda? Where's the camryaderie, Toyota? I thought so.

Cheers!

Haha, have an article on that exact part coming this evening.

 

[M3Rider]

Just went through a topic over on the X forum regarding orders of the new Raven redesign. There has been a few confirmed deliveries now as of very recent, but still people one month in without any VINs or other status updates since ordering. I asked before on this thread and a couple folks here mentioned Tesla had a regulation hurdle or something, which has been apparently cleared. But, that doesn’t make sense if some are still without VINs one month in.

Any ideas?

Well, they are not at full speed yet, remember Q1 call?

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Well, just one thing I wanted to add to that, just on the production side of S and X. We did reduce production in Q1 as was noted. That was part of the retooling that we put in place to get the longer range vehicle out with the improved suspension, and we are in the process of increasing production backup over the course of Q2. So, just for the pervasive expectations, we will exit Q2 at a higher production rate than we did in Q1 on S and X and then return back to a more normal volume in Q3. It's already increasing.

 

[ZachShahan]

Lol, Janus isn't 'suddenly bearish' on TSLA. It was his "Note to Clients" on the morning of the 2018Q2 production report that crashed the SP from $360 at Mon open to $300 by Fri close.

Here's the best part: in his note he wrote that 'Tesla wouldn't be able to produce 4K Model 3s per week until May 2019' (where's the a**hat emoji?)

Now Janus spouts the line "TSLA is [blahblah] and Strategically Undervalued".

Clearly his (thus also MorganStanley's) objective is to broker a buyout deal for Tesla, and rake in the fees. Jolly jokers of Wall St.

Cheers!

I'm so frustrated with this guy's wild/ridiculous notes/memos/statements that I think I'm going to do a "Tesla Flashbacks" piece on them. Anyone interested in sending me gems like this to include can send via DM.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

 

[Unpilot]

Samsung deepfake AI could fabricate a video clip of you from a single photo

Were doomed.

 

[KSilver2000]

Can’t make ‘em fast enough?

If that’s the case, it should be a no brainer to shift available resources and production mix to make as many S/X’s as possible because they have higher margins/profits. They should know since the drop in S/X contributed to the loss in Q1, though part of that was due to the demand side. So, I don’t completely buy the opinion that they can’t make ’em fast enough.

 

[Curt Renz]

Auto dealerships are an ancient and deeply entrenched business. I know some that have been passed down from father to son. It is a lifestyle and a perceived entitlement. The idea that cars could be sold outside that environment is 1) almost unimaginable and 2) obviously inferior and doomed to failure.

I bought a new Chevy in 2005, and the owner of the dealership stopped by to thank me. He was the grandson of the man who did the same thing when I bought my first new car there in 1965. In 2008 General Motors bought their dealership before selling the property to a supermarket chain. It was felt by GM that during a recession there were too many Chevy dealers in the area, and that the land could be more economically productive for a different type of business. Once low maintenance electric cars become ubiquitous, look for many dealerships to abandon their businesses and sell the land for what they can get.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The Semi is probably the most exciting project that Tesla has right now.
If they do it fast and right, I may forgive Elon for the time wasted on his steampunk huge pickup.... ;-)

(seriously tho: Semi, Y, Tesla Energy, Buffalo GF2, Shangai GF3 are serious, very impactful projects.
They fulfill the mission, bring stability to the business and "look good" for outsiders. Pet projects is not something we need right now at 195$ per share. I just hope Elon delays it, we need him focused on the important stuff.)

The semi actually seems to me to be the most compelling product that will have consistent demand for a long time and a long term revenue and profit. Not just from the sale of the Semi to the customer but I'll be really curious how Tesla bundles FSD and custom software to Semi customers(think custom FSD software for platooning, energy use/conservation, etc...) I hope they do something like a subscription service to it where Semi customers that want it pay idk, something like 1k a year to run the software. They would still save a ton verses paying for a driver.

As for the pickup, while it won't be important for sales, I think it could have a shock and awe affect that would drive interest from people to Tesla as a brand. The new roadster had a similar effect when it shocked everyone. People were talking about it for weeks.

 

[AlMc]

Where would he go?

He already 'burnt out' once a couple years ago and took an extended leave from Tesla. He would be valuable to any company, especially one developing electric semis.....

He has been EM's troubleshooter for years. Always put in charge of areas of extreme need.

 

[TheMrX]

The Semi is probably the most exciting project that Tesla has right now.
If they do it fast and right, I may forgive Elon for the time wasted on his steampunk huge pickup.... ;-)

(seriously tho: Semi, Y, Tesla Energy, Buffalo GF2, Shangai GF3 are serious, very impactful projects.
They fulfill the mission, bring stability to the business and "look good" for outsiders. Pet projects is not something we need right now at 195$ per share. I just hope Elon delays it, we need him focused on the important stuff.)

I disagree, we need Tesla to set a standard as to what is supposed to be an electric pickup truck.

This will leave no choice for GM and Ford to take the turn if they want to stay alive.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I disagree, we need Tesla to set a standard as to what is supposed to be an electric pickup truck.

This will leave no choice for GM and Ford to take the turn if they want to stay alive.

IF Elon did a F150-like pickup, but electric, I'd wholeheartedly agree with you.
I'm worried he'll go for a F750 or something, something huge. Not the "the new electric standard".

 

[kbM3]

You can't flip something if there is an equivalent on the market for less. Maybe I don't understand your point, but this makes no sense.

Because if someone is selling an income generating asset that lasts 10 years and fully pays for itself in less than 2 years, it would be sold out years ahead of time.

I’m positing what would happen if Tesla flips the switch, the robo-taxi instantly works all over and no competition is forthcoming for a long time.

In actuality, I believe there will be snags, roadblocks, legal and regulatory hurdles, more costs than anticipated...

But if it works somewhat well and is an appreciating asset, why would anyone buy a different car, unless they couldn’t afford it or it just could not fit their needs? So if Tesla didn’t raise the price, the waiting list would just grow and grow.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I bought a new Chevy in 2005, and the owner of the dealership stopped by to thank me. He was the grandson of the man who did the same thing when I bought my first new car there in 1965. In 2008 General Motors bought their dealership before selling the property to a supermarket chain. It was felt by GM that during a recession there were too many Chevy dealers in the area, and that the land could be more economically productive for a different type of business. Once low maintenance electric cars become ubiquitous, look for many dealerships to abandon their businesses and sell the land for what they can get.

Well, at least there will be no lack of suitable locations for expanding Tesla service centers!

(Probably at NUMMI prices, too.)

 

[jerry33]

IF Elon did a F150-like pickup, but electric, I'd wholeheartedly agree with you.
I'm worried he'll go for a F750 or something, something huge. Not the "the new electric standard".

They will need the profits from the something huge to pay for the new electric standard. This method has worked in the past.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Anybody else got the feeling that Model 3 orders are about to ‘go viral’? The leaked news inspired me to grab some shares in pre market. I figure that the current date likely represents peak FUD, and to hear that this had not deterred 50k new car buyers shows great resilience.

As the stock rebounds, confidence will rise and the order rate will rise. There are countless anecdotes in this forum of owners ‘selling’ cars to passengers. That effect grows proportionately to the number of Teslas on the street.

But Tesla can only make them so fast? True, but as the order book grows, the wait time drives impatient buyers upmarket to secure a car sooner. They add options to their 3, or switch to S or X. Margin climbs.

I’m excited for Tesla. Sad for where BMW is headed. Germany gets my vote for GF4, for stability.

If Q2 is epic and it continues to Q3, I think there is going to be a serious dissonance between what 30,000 people per month think and what talking heads on CNBC think.

I mean, someone had to call BS at some point.

 

[shrspeedblade]

So as not to be misinterpreted, the email I just got from Tesla:

"We're making improvements to our factory. Since safety of our guests is our number one priority, we need to cancel the tour. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience. If you'd like to reschedule your appointment for a future date, we're happy to coordinate with you once the factory improvements are complete."

Something is going on, I suspect beyond just cost cutting.

EDIT: No estimated date yet for resuming, told I will be emailed once available.

Just to give a quick update FWIW, my tour got reactivated for June 10 again, same time. Told they made some adjustments to our tour route so will be able to accommodate previously scheduled tours.

I did see a tweet to Elon about somebody who had a big trip planned and didn't want to get disappointed, wonder if that had something to do with it.

I look forward to not telling you all what I see at the investors meeting on June 11th!

 

[uselesslogin]

When was new Pana lines gonna come online so that battery capacity ( bottleneck in prior quarter) exceed the 23GWHr?
Was it June beginning or End? Could this issue have been resolved so that per todays email they have started doing ~ 900/day ?

My understanding was new machines went in to reach 24Gwh. 7,000/wk of 65Kwh average battery packs needs only 24Gwh.

 

[ZachShahan]

The Semi is probably the most exciting project that Tesla has right now.
If they do it fast and right, I may forgive Elon for the time wasted on his steampunk huge pickup.... ;-)

Hahaha, that steampunk pickup scares me a little bit. Was more bullish about it before Elon tweeted something like, "well, if people don't like it, at least I do."

Jerome indicated, as others have noted, that they're taking it slowly with the Semi. Slow and steady ... That said, as I think @neroden but maybe someone else noted, Tesla will save a ton of money using its own Semi trucks for transport between Nevada and California.

 

[Fred42]

OK, I have mobilized funds for an additional 300 shares. That email would be great if true, but this stock is acting as if TSLA is going bankrupt in the next few months, which I know is not possible as they have funds for at least two years assuming 1Q 'debacle' is repeated for next eight quarters - which will just not happen. I think the reality on the ground is much different from what we are being fed by WS. Anecdotal I know, but I see Teslas everywhere now. I live in Queens and I know I had the first Tesla in my neighborhood. No one else knows that now. They just have to make sure that they are making money on every car they sell, and I do believe they are at current production levels, before China has done anything at all.

I do not know if we will hit 90K this Q. I do not care. I just want to see continued ramps in production and revenues yoy. How a fifty percent growth rate in the car industry can be dismissed so easily is testimony to the ability of the Lords in charge to frame the message.

This said I am being greedy and trying to buy at prices in the lows 180s to high 170s. Hey why not. Worst case it spikes away from me and... well damn just bought some the other day at 200 lol. Goes down another ten percent going to buy another 300 shares.

Wish I had just held onto the shares I accumulated in the low 30s yeas ago. But I had never been that early on a stock that moved like TSLA did. I really believed that selling on the way up and closing out after it tripled was a sound financial move. Believed I would be able to load up again at lower prices...well that didn't work out too well. Didn't really think about where to go from there to be honest, as I love the company and the products where the hell else would I put my money?...eh I am rambling.

Biggest question I have for the future: I believe that they have acquired the battery technology to start ramping up their energy densities in their batteries, to perhaps twice what they are now, decreasing their cost per kWh by over 50% (another total dismissal by WS). I do not think they should be more than a year away from beginning production. How do you introduce these batteries? You cannot just flip a switch and make all the 2170s into the new design. How do you transition without suffering all sorts of Osbourne effects? Anyone in the know will want the new batteries.

Perhaps this is why Tesla has totally moved away from talking about battery capacity and simply talking about range. Maybe they will just announce longer and longer ranges. Or maybe put the new batteries in only the S and X to start and create incredible demand for their flagship models with comfortable 600 mile ranges? This would be a great differentiation that currently has become muddled considering how great the 3 is. No reason to believe that the Y will not be a fantastic value as well. Put the new batteries in the S and X only in the beginning, at premium prices. That might work out really well.

Sorry for the long post.

They might use part of the Maxcell improvement to lower the cell count and costs rather than increasing range. Also I don't think double density is something that's known.