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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. jepicken

    jepicken VIN: 80322

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    Answering my own question, here are my calculations (hopefully I guessed the columns correctly; they weren't labeled in his incorrectly titled "Why I'm Now Shorting Tesla Stock" video):

    Description Quantity Basis/sh Total basis Price/sh Total Value Gain %
    Feb 21 '20 $600 Call 300 $1.9498 $58,494 $294.35 $8,830,500 14996%
    Feb 21 '20 $300 Put 70 $2.7900 $19,530 $0.44 $3,080 -84%
    Feb 21 '20 $350 Put 30 $5.9640 $17,892 $0.70 $2,100 -88%
    Mar 20 '20 $600 Call 40 $2.7485 $10,994 $302.35 $1,209,400 10901%
    Totals $106,910 $10,045,080 9296%


    So if Jack were still holding those options, he'd be up ~93X on them and they'd be worth about $10M. Sadly I just noticed there was another video about a week after the first, which I haven't watched yet, but the comments indicate he had sold the Calls. Still at a healthy profit, but nowhere near $10M. I hope he put the proceeds back into TSLA shares at least!

    Edit: Damnit I have the columns nicely aligned in the editor, but the spaces all collapse into one when you view it... I don't know how to fix that, so you'll just have to puzzle it out.
     
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  2. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    Lol, do you think he's messing with Toyota? You know, like when a Frat house opens next door to a Convent?

    "Well Howdy, Neighbor!"



    Cheers!
     
  3. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    TSLA at €780 or -3.1%

    Thats $861
     
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  4. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    Lol, the Saudi news came out hrs before the bear raid.
     
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  5. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    #134705 Prunesquallor, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
    Interesting. NASA has a presence in Houston, of course (as does SpaceX). Still have some contacts there and I have heard absolutely zero rumors.

    My bet is Giga and/or Design Center near Austin. But I would think something like that would be contingent on Texas changing auto dealership laws. I’ve heard no rumors of that, either.
     
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  6. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Supporting Member

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    OK, so a previous post, I misparsed the operational milestone requirements, as needing two additional for the second tranche, three additional for the third tranche - it's one additional per tranche.

    Two operational milestones (so two tranches worth) have been unlocked - $20B revenue for the previous four quarters, and $1.5B adjusted EBITDA. The third ($3B adjusted EBITDA) is very close.

    So, yes, once $200B market cap is averaged, a third tranche would be granted.
     
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  7. FrankSG

    FrankSG Supporting Member

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    Now down almost 10% to EUR 769.10 in Frankfurt, aka $849.29

    Looks like there's a bear/manipulation raid on-going in Europe, just like we saw a few weeks ago with the NHTSA unintended acceleration investigation and Adam Jonas downgrade.

    This smells like somebody is desperate. I wonder if we'll see a huge amount of shares sold again right at open of pre-market in US. Feels like a short needs to cover, and wants to do so at lower prices perhaps?

    We'll see if it works out or not. Either way, it's shaping up to be an interesting day once again.
     
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  8. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    #134708 Artful Dodger, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
    Integrated bty production is very likely, but with CT there's no need for Stamping, Body, and Paint.

    EDIT: Obviously, SEMI needs a home and an new src of bty cells. If the cab is thermoplastics, that could work at a combined CT facility. If the Semi's cab is stamped'n'painted steel, then not so much. Why haven't our legions of Youtuber's ever sought to find out what the Semi cab is made of? Such simple stuff... :p

    So its unlikely Tesla will build Model 2 at the same plant as CT. It's more likely Model 2 will be an original product from GF4/Berlin phase 3 (2023), closest to its largest market. Model 1 / "World Car" will likely be produced in China by 2024, likely at a new GF, perhaps also at a city other than Shanghai.

    Roadster production likely will be collocated with the other Plaid vehicles at Fremont since most of that production is already hosted here, so they do not need to spend the CapEx for a new Paint Shop, etc.

    Cheers!
     
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  9. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. One thing to consider - the short sellers are not a monolithic block all working in conjunction with each other. If they want to cover their short positions, they have to compete against one another for shares at the lowest prices.
     
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  10. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    Volume in Frankfurt still very low, so easily manipulated. No liquidity. It’s a great and cheap way to mess with the psyche.
     
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  11. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #134711 Fact Checking, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
    Correct, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) on Frankfurt Xetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.

    There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.

    Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:

    upload_2020-2-5_9-56-2.png

    Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.

    Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:

    upload_2020-2-5_10-4-5.png

    The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:
    • The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
    • There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
    • On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.

    #2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:

    upload_2020-2-5_10-17-53.png

    Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.

    Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.

    There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.

    #3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:

    upload_2020-2-5_10-21-51.png

    That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.

    In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.

    Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.

    Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:


    After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:

    On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.

    The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.

    A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:
    Code:
    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/
    The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.

    All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.​

    Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course! :D

    Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.
     
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  12. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    So... yet another "STFU and buy the dip" day.
     
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  13. mad474

    mad474 Member

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    #134713 mad474, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
    +20 @ 735 EUR ~ 811.51 USD
    never mind :)


    Edit: Mother's money, it's a pleasure for both of us
     
  14. DrMazeppa

    DrMazeppa Senior Futurist

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    Sad and pathetic really. If I were a big whale, I would buy everything till Monday. Destroy the bully manipulators and sell on Monday after victory is achieved.
     
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  15. JBRR

    JBRR Member

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    #134715 JBRR, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
    *Walter Bloomberg on Twitter
    “U.S. STOCK FUTURES RISE SHARPLY, NOW UP 0.6%, ON MEDIA REPORTS OF CORONAVIRUS DRUG BREAKTHROUGHS - TRADERS”


    Should help today
     
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  16. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

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  17. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    'Giga Texas?' Musk asks Twitter users to vote on new gigafactory

    (Reuters) - Elon Musk, the billionaire chief executive officer of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), went on Twitter to ask users if the electric carmaker should build a new gigafactory in Texas.

    "Giga Texas?" Musk tweeted here giving two options - "hell yeah" and "nope." The poll garnered over 102,000 responses as of 11:15 p.m. PT Tuesday, with about 80% voting in favor of the new gigafactory.
     
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  18. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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  19. UncaNed

    UncaNed Supporting Member

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    I keep hearing about $$$ movements, $60 at sp 900 = $20 at sp 300 or $13.33 when sp was $200.

    Shouldn't we be talking in %'s instead of $'s?
     
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  20. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    GF Texas, hyper growth.
    No cap raise needed.
     
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