Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Germany extends 1.2 bln euro electric car bonus to 2020 - Reuters

 

[shootformoon]

But tesla does not qualify for it?

Germany extends 1.2 bln euro electric car bonus to 2020 - Reuters

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Why compare to BMW, BMW staring at 310k RMB from what I know they are compare to US made SR+ which is less than 40k. also the Chinese M3 most likey not using panasonic battery.

Why not compare to BMW, Mercedes, they are targeting the same group. Why sell for lower price when your products are much better?

China update:

Looks like the China website orders did some big numbers in about 3 minutes.

The site is slow and Tesla recommends patience or go to a store in person.

Might be an indicator of hefty demand in the first hours of orders.

3 minutes for first order, not big numbers.

 

[Electroman]

But tesla does not qualify for it?

Thats a fair assumption i would think.

Funny thing if they disqualify Tesla explicitly because it is not a German company, Germans will delighted and much of American establishments too. I would think much of the US media will actively persuade the Germans to disqualify Tesla

 

[mrdoubleb]

But tesla does not qualify for it?

The Model 3 does. The threshold is 60k Euros.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Could be timing a Chinese New Year roll out event potentially.

I don't think so. Chinese New Year is in late January-mid February, so even if it's FY or CY, it'd not affect the EOY market. I doubt Tesla adopted the Chinese Year for financial purposes, since it changes yearly.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

If you also factor in the delay from Tesla’s optimistic estimates, there is statistically a very high chance that we’ll only see a handful of deliveries to occur by EOY (for PR purposes).
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think the markets will be pleased with this given how TSLA is treated.

I hope this is a cautious number to account for potential delays.

Also, if they start production in Q4(Oct), then likely the first couple of months the output will be in the hundreds, not significant enough to post it as a promise to many. If they ramp to 1-2k in Dec as stated in Q1 call, then that's your lower estimate - 6mo. For everybody else besides the first 2k it takes longer.

I think the 6-10 months is conservative.
The last thing Tesla want to do is overpromise. I like this underpromise.
Plus, the longer people have to wait, the more likely they will buy imported version now.

Why does Tesla publish G3 Model 3 price now? I think one of the reasons is that they want people to stop waiting, “go ahead, just order the US made Model 3, the price difference is not that big...”

Gasoline price in China is much higher than in the US, I think Tesla’s price is still very competitive. They shouldn’t try to price it as low as possible.

The saving of driving a EV in China is substantial.
Basically, if you charge at home, the cost per km (or per mile, doesn't matter) is about 10% of gas.
In Shanghai, electricity cost can be 0.33 CNY per kWh, which is about 0.05 dollar.
Do the math for a SRP, and that would translate to 0.05-0.06 CNY per KM, which is about 0.007-0.008 dollar per KM,

I'll say that again.
That is 0.7-0.8 US cent per km, or 1.1-1.3 US cent per mile, which is crazy.

0.331 yuan per kWh for night charging and 0.641 for day time.

 

[larmor]

What is price per mile for gas for a bmw in Shanghai? I forgot the recent price per liter but I remember it wasn’t cheap.

I think the 6-10 months is conservative.
The last thing Tesla want to do is overpromise. I like this underpromise.
Plus, the longer people have to wait, the more likely they will buy imported version now.




The saving of driving a EV in China is substantial.
Basically, if you charge at home, the cost per km (or per mile, doesn't matter) is about 10% of gas.
In Shanghai, electricity cost can be 0.33 CNY per KW, which is about 0.05 dollar.
And that would translate to 0.05 CNY per KM, which is about 0.007 dollar per KM,

I'll say that again.
That is 0.7 US cent per km, or 1.1 US cent per mile, which is crazy.

 

[MP3Mike]

The Model 3 does. The threshold is 60k Euros.

I thought the Model 3 was disqualified because it was ~1 inch too long.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

We *do not* want to alarm anyone, but Model 3 is now available to order in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Ireland and Macau at Electric Cars, Solar Panels & Clean Energy Storage | Tesla.

You know what to do: Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

Tesla on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Thats a fair assumption i would think.

Funny thing if they disqualify Tesla explicitly because it is not a German company, Germans will delighted and much of American establishments too. I would think much of the US media will actively persuade the Germans to disqualify Tesla

Germany will not disqualify Tesla because it is an American for the same reason the US didn't disqualify BMW,MB, and VW Group from the $7500 Federal Credit.

The US would immediately enter a complaint with the WTO and win. And install maximum retaliatory tariffs.

The trickier one would be if,as VW proposes, they limited subsidy to cars 4650mm in length. Which would barely qualify ID.3 and exclude Model 3. Might win that one at European Court too. As of now don't see this in the extension.

 

[RobStark]

I thought the Model 3 was disqualified because it was ~1 inch too long.

That is a VW proposal. Not German law.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

What is price per mile for gas for a bmw in Shanghai? I forgot the recent price per liter but I remember it wasn’t cheap.

As I said, the average cost per km of ICE is about 10 times as much a comparable Tesla, could be a little lower or higher depending fuel efficiency.

Tesla China's website says Model 3 cost 1/8 to 1/7, but Tesla lists electricity rate at 0.48 yuan per kWh.
Maybe that's the average rate of China, but in Shanghai it's as low as 0.331 yuan per kWh

 

[Carl Raymond]

Ok, just realised I’ve been successfully FUDded.

Was reading yesterday, can’t recall where, that the Chinese price had to come in below the ‘psychological’ barrier of 300,000 yuan. Somebody worked out the new price point and planted the ‘fail’ in my head.

The actual price of 328,000 is still 50,000 yuan below the import price. There’s nothing shabby about that at all. With pricing now out there, orders will likely flow both ways. Impatient buyers to whom 50,000 yuan is not so much will import immediately. Those to whom 50,000 is significant and who wish be head of the queue will place a GF3 order.

I’m back to viewing this event as a potential catalyst. Staying well tuned for more reports. Some in-store video would be revealing.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Ok, just realised I’ve been successfully FUDded.

Was reading yesterday, can’t recall where, that the Chinese price had to come in below the ‘psychological’ barrier of 300,000 yuan. Somebody worked out the new price point and planted the ‘fail’ in my head.

The actual price of 328,000 is still 50,000 yuan below the import price. There’s nothing shabby about that at all. With pricing now out there, orders will likely flow both ways. Impatient buyers to whom 50,000 yuan is not so much will import immediately. Those to whom 50,000 is significant and who wish be head of the queue will place a GF3 order.

I’m back to viewing this event as a potential catalyst. Staying well tuned for more reports. Some in-store video would be revealing.

Come on, don't say that is FUD, it was I who said 300,000 is a psychological barrier
And my logic still stands. If price is below 300K, sales will be off the chart.

But right now, the 328K price tag encourages people to go for the 377K imported version.

Also, Model 3 from Giga Shanghai should be eligible for subsidy (not confirmed, could be wrong, but in theory yes), which will indeed make it sub 300K. But for the same reason, Tesla will not tell people until delivery is near.

And when the subsidies fade out completely by then end of next year, Giga Shanghai will surely have finished the ramp, and could drop price a little bit.


Another thing I want to point out to you is that 328K does not include Autopilot, which is 27,800 yuan.
So your 50,000 difference is actually about 20,000, and that's why many people are not happy, but I think they will get past that.

 

[EVNow]

Let’s Close US economy, Lets raise tariffs to 50% on all goods coming to USA, this strategy is similar to India soon after independent from British, No foreign corporations, No importing goods, there was no progress in India for some 30 years due to this type of policy.

Different countries, different eras.

There was no way to promote local industry in a completely rigged colonial system. You had to break it.

 

[EVNow]

I’m back to viewing this event as a potential catalyst. Staying well tuned for more reports. Some in-store video would be revealing.

It is a catalyst only if Tesla gets a very high number of orders and reports it. Not holding my breath, but would be nice.

BTW, the FIs should like the price. They don’t like lower ASP or margin.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Come on, don't say that is FUD, it was I who said 300,000 is a psychological barrier
And my logic still stands. If price is below 300K, sales will be off the chart.

But right now, the 328K price tag encourages people to go for the 377K imported version.

Also, Model 3 from Giga Shanghai should be eligible for subsidy (not confirmed, could be wrong, but in theory yes), which will indeed make it sub 300K. But for the same reason, Tesla will not tell people until delivery is near.

And when the subsidies fade out completely by then end of next year, Giga Shanghai will surely have finished the ramp, and could drop price a little bit.


Another thing I want to point out to you is that 328K does not include Autopilot, which is 27,800 yuan.
So your 50,000 difference is actually about 20,000, and that's why many people are not happy, but I think they will get past that.

According to South China Post, Tesla say 13% cheaper.
South China Post say 49,000 yuan cheaper.
Bloomberg say 49,000 yuan cheaper.

Tesla prices made-in-China Model 3 at 13 per cent lower than US imports

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[MP3Mike]

And my logic still stands. If price is below 300K, sales will be off the chart.

We don't need off the chart sales, as we don't have off the chart production to back them up. At least not yet. So there is no point in pricing it lower and getting more orders than you can support in a reasonable amount of time.

 

[dqd88]

On the Tesla site you can now select the option to view the price sans "savings". I like how they did it, a pretty cool and functional solution imo.