Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

A few months ago I rolled some funds from my 401k to my self directed IRA. I asked that my check go directly to Schwab, but my HR department said their experience is that the check gets lost somewhere in the brokerage system and it often takes weeks to sort out. I was assured it’s much faster to mail the check to me directly so I could walk it in and deposit it. Only problem was that all Schwab offices were closed due to Covid. I then tried mobile deposit, but the check was too large. Sigh. I ended up overnighting it to Schwab’s processing operation in Texas where they received and deposited it the next day.

You are talking about checks as in checkbooks? Like I vaguely remember using back in the 1990s before it was forgotten? Why on earth would someone use those these days?

 

[Tslynk67]

down to $384 After hours.

To put this in context, the split was announced on August 11th when the stock price (split adjusted) was only $274.88c - and we haven't had any new material company information since then.

Personally I have always maintained that share splits are absolutely meaningless except to idiots, so there was no valid reason for the crazy run-up based on company fundamentals.

Other than the stock-price being artificially suppressed (FFS) for years and doubly-so after Q2ER?

 

[Tslynk67]

There wasn't much good data before Tesla started pumping out cars in volume with the Model 3. Also, the Model 3 appears to have an even lower fire rate than the Model S. It took time for the number of electric vehicle miles travelled to rise to the point that the statistics were statistically robust and available enough that the critics could be silenced. There are delays built into every layer from putting the miles on the EV fleet to compiling and publishing the data to people collecting the data and using it to rebut the false narrative that EV's are a fire danger. It didn't help that photos of every burning Tesla would make the rounds multiple times in the International media while burning ICE cars were almost entirely relegated to local media.

As someone who watched the rise and fall of the "EV's are a fire danger" narrative with great interest, I can say with confidence that it really was the rebutting of that narrative with statistics that caused it to look as silly as it really was and eventually die a quiet death. As late as 2018 some experts were still saying that, in terms of fire risk, EV's were no more dangerous and were probably safer than ICE cars but the data was not robust enough to say they were safer with certainty. By 2018-2019 a number of articles were released that concluded EV's provided a lower fire risk than ICE vehicles and it was in the latter half of that period that the narrative started to lose impact at a noticeable rate.

Of course such rumors die hard when being pushed by people with an agenda and TSLAQ types kept up the disinformation campaign. Many of us here helped rebut that narrative with statistics collected by The National Fire Incident Reporting System and published by NHTSA and others, combined with regular reports of Tesla fleet miles travelled and the number of known Tesla fires (mostly compiled by TSLAQ types, lol).

So that's what finally ended the "Tesla as a fire danger" story and a big thank you to everyone here who tirelessly helped stamp out that narrative by bringing actual statistics to conversations all over the Net, with the result of making the purveyors of such fallacies look sillier than the Emperor wearing his "new clothes" in public. Yes, it was facts and statistics that made these people look naked. Thank you to all who helped!

I think, for one thing, they changed the coolant in the M3 to something non-flammable, maybe newer S & X too. No doubt with the M3 being a fixed-pack, rather than exchangeable module, they gave it more protection that the previous cars on top.

But it's true, have seen plenty of serious M3 accidents, but not a single fire. If they had been ICE cars then a %age of them would have gone up in flames and caused some fatalities as a result.

 

[Christine69420]

Can anyone explain this re Norway. The e-Tron? (It was posted here today, this story for reference.)

"The most popular electric cars were the Audi e-tron, the Mercedes EQC 400 and the VW e-Golf. The newcomer Polestar 2 follows in fourth place. The Tesla Model 3, on the other hand, is not very well received by the Norwegians and lands in ninth place for new registrations in August. Here Model Y should only bring an upswing again. The market entry of the VW ID.3 will be exciting in September. We expect strong numbers in Norway and the Polestar 2 should continue to enjoy great popularity."

In addition to good points brought up by other posters:

Years ago tiny Norway bought a large percentage of Teslas sold in Europe. This because our taxes strongly favored them. In other countries buying EVs were both expensive and scary.

These days the Audi e-tron is in a similar situation. It's popular in Norway while it's a slow sell elsewhere. So Norway is buying a larger percentage of e-trons produced than our tiny population would suggest.

Now however Teslas sell like hotcakes all over Europe. So tiny Norway only get a small percentage of the cars made. And I would guess it make sense for Tesla to deliver more cars to ie Germany than to Norway when the quarterly deadlines approach since it saves both transport time and cost.

I know that Tesla could have sold more Teslas in Norway each quarter from reading about disappointed buyers who have to wait for months to get their cars.

 

[RobStark]

But this does raise an interesting issue, I assume Austin will have the new superior paint shop like Berlin.
I can't see Model Ys with new great paint at Austin being made at the same time as ..."normal paint" from Fremont.

I can see a base "normal paint" Model Y coming from Fremont. Non-metallic black, white, or grey.

While the 3 layer paint from Austin is sold at an upcharge.

They can adjust relative prices to get the relative orders correct for the capacity they have at Fremont/Austin.

 

[Robocop]

I can see a base "normal paint" Model Y coming from Fremont. Non-metallic black, white, or grey.

While the 3 layer paint from Austin is sold at an upcharge.

They can adjust relative prices to get the relative orders correct for the capacity they have at Fremont/Austin.

That said, the S & X are exclusive to Fremont, and they surely deserve both better paint and better paint options as well. I suspect once Austin is operational, and Tesla can meet some of their delivery goals there... maybe they disassemble / upgrade Fremont paint shop for S3XY. But there's no way they can do that now, as it'd shut down production.

How many weeks would it take (if they worked 24/7) to install an upgraded Fremont paint shop? I'd suspect 2022 at the earliest for this.

 

[jerry33]

Is there ANY alternative to the SEC to turn to? FBI maybe?

White-Collar Crime — FBI

The FBI’s corporate fraud investigations primarily focus on the following activities:
Falsification of financial information

• False accounting entries and/or misrepresentations of financial condition;
• Fraudulent trades designed to inflate profits or hide losses; and
• Illicit transactions designed to evade regulatory oversight.

• Self-dealing by corporate insiders

• Insider trading (trading based on material, non-public information);
  Kickbacks;
• Misuse of corporate property for personal gain; and
• Individual tax violations related to self-dealing.

Fraud in connection with an otherwise legitimately operated mutual hedge fund

• Late trading;
• Certain market timing schemes; and
• Falsification of net asset values.

I believe the problem is that they have to prove intent. A very hard thing to do. The way the regulations are set up now, it's extremely hard to control the MMs, and there is a lot of political will opposing any kind of control.

 

[Tslynk67]

Did the $5B Equity Raise already sell? Selling over time? Going to sell soon?

We don't now, but I bet my balls that Tesla haven't sold a single share. Clearly they will wait until the S&P feeding-frenzy, then feed some into the pool for the fat fish to gobble-up at high prices. Then they can say to the SPY guys "look, we did what we promised".

At least that's what I'd be targeting.

 

[jerry33]

Why, oh why, in this day and age does a 401K fund only do rollovers by paper check to me (rather than the new fund/broker), requiring me to then mail it and the funds to "clear"... a process that will take the better part of two weeks??

It's kind of a penalty that the broker applies to get the last bit of interest income out of you.

 

[jerry33]

Your comment ASSumes that it's even possible to BUTTdial an upgrade

If your butt can press the upgrade, it can also press the confirmation.

 

[junas]

In addition to good points brought up by other posters:

Years ago tiny Norway bought a large percentage of Teslas sold in Europe. This because our taxes strongly favored them. In other countries buying EVs were both expensive and scary.

These days the Audi e-tron is in a similar situation. It's popular in Norway while it's a slow sell elsewhere. So Norway is buying a larger percentage of e-trons produced than our tiny population would suggest.

Now however Teslas sell like hotcakes all over Europe. So tiny Norway only get a small percentage of the cars made. And I would guess it make sense for Tesla to deliver more cars to ie Germany than to Norway when the quarterly deadlines approach since it saves both transport time and cost.

I know that Tesla could have sold more Teslas in Norway each quarter from reading about disappointed buyers who have to wait for months to get their cars.

Great points. I'd like to add one more: Norwegians are famous for their outdoor lifestyle (skiing, fishing, sailing, hiking, etc.). You can't really fit such a massive outdoor gear in Model 3. In this regard Norway is quite different market than rest of Europe where compact cars are preferred. Oslo has probably more traffic jams on the cross-country ski tracks of Holmenkollen than on the motorways. Not even 100% joking. You haven't seen it before that 90yo grandpa overtakes you on the cross-country ski track in mad max mode.

I've had lots of discussions with Norwegians why they buy eTron... Most say it's about the size and price as a combination. Only alternative from Tesla is Model X which is not cheap even in Norwegian standards. That's why eTron is currently selling better in Norway than in other countries. However, Model Y will break the bank according to locals. Tesla will eventually have a huge market share in Norway, but other brands are also there to stay.

Disclaimer: I'm no Norwegian, but visit the country 5+ times a year.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can anyone explain this re Norway. The e-Tron? (It was posted here today, this story for reference.)

"The most popular electric cars were the Audi e-tron, the Mercedes EQC 400 and the VW e-Golf. The newcomer Polestar 2 follows in fourth place. The Tesla Model 3, on the other hand, is not very well received by the Norwegians and lands in ninth place for new registrations in August. Here Model Y should only bring an upswing again. The market entry of the VW ID.3 will be exciting in September. We expect strong numbers in Norway and the Polestar 2 should continue to enjoy great popularity."

Yes, Tesla didn't ship any M3 to Norway yet, or very few... Germany and NL ate them all along the way

 

[Kalani]

2nd quarter sales EU-wide (440 million consumers): while ICE cars still over 80%, BEVs up to 7,2% (up threefold) of new registrations, 9,6% electric hybrids, BEV gain much more than expected despite pandemic related lockdown.

 

[WarpedOne]

I say let MM piss into the wind to their liking, who am I to prevent them getting smelly?

HODL FTW

 

[Chocochip]

BEV gain much more than expected despite pandemic related lockdown.

I'd say, BEVs gained partly thanks to the pandemic-related lockdown. The Model 3 was the best-selling car in the UK in both April and May this year, during the lockdown, albeit with fairly low delivery numbers. The reason: turns out that being able to configure your new car and order it completely online helps a lot when the stores are closed. And then Tesla put forward some staff guidelines for contactless delivery (the last step that can't be completely done online), and voila.

This, of course, does not completely explain the ramp-up in demand for BEVs. The rest may have to do with increasing acceptance of the inherent advantages of owning a BEV, such as the low running costs, the low or null taxes and the low need for service. Aspects which may be relevant when confronted with a contraction in the economy and aggressive cost-cutting measures for businesses.

 

[ggies07]

Welcome to Page 10,000!

yeah, um, mods, can we please get a new thread at the beginning of next year?

 

[mongo]

Yes. "Short Exempt" doesn't mean what they wrote on that website.

Unresolved question is: "Exempt" from what? As you surmise, it's obviously not an exemption from the "Uptick Rule" or there would be only zeros reported on days when the uptick rule isn't in place.

So what other "Exemptions" are there? Well, SEC Regulation SHO is itself a narrow exemption to the prohibition against short selling granted only to Options Market Makers.

Assumed basis of your question:
There is harm or some reason to not label trades that would be SE in an uptick rule condition as SE when uptick is not active.

So what is that reason? I don't see anything "obviously" wrong about labeling data with appropriate attributes.

An object can have a classification added even if that classification is superfluous or not needed at the time. A trade that would be exempt from the uptick rule still has that characteristic even if the uptick rule is not in place.
Further, it is in the best interests of all parties involved (at least from the standpoint of recordkeeping) to mark relevent trades with the least restrictive category possible in the event the limiting event does happen.

Labeling trades SE that qualify, even if that qualifcation is not needed, simplies the processing. When the SE is needed, it's there. When not needed, its not checked. Otherwise, you are adding an additional layer of logic that serves no purpose:

Simple:
Would this trade be considered short exempt?
Yes -> tag as short exempt

Complicated:
Would this trade be considered short exempt?
Yes -> Are we currently under an uptick rule?
Yes -> label SE

But this is not good enough, you really need:
No -> is the uptick rule active or likely to be in place soon?
Yes -> label SE

Where 'likely' and 'soon' are arbitrary, and if they get the values wrong, it could go badly for them because the trades cannot be properly classified without back editing. Simpler and safer to just tag all that qualify.

 

[ammulder]

Thanks! This is in contrast with

The Wall Street consensus for Tesla's third-quarter deliveries is 98,000. => A whopping 43% increase.

I heard a "whisper number" of 130K quoted. I found that astonishingly high for Wall Street. But I do think that if the delivery number came in at, say, 110K, the stock would not react positively. It's not clear how they'd generate a massive increase in deliveries from Q3 to Q4, so it doesn't take much math to realize that 130K is more or less the minimum deliveries for Q3 if they want to achieve the 500K target for the year.

Yeah, SP is sucking in Berlin right now, but at least I get a post on page 10,000!

Proud to be a part of the TSLA/Tesla community!

Aren't you supposed to be sleeping? Is this the problem? You've been WAKING UP EARLY for the last two days?!?!?

He suggests that the lower TSLA's stock price, the less TSLA index funds have to buy, and the higher TSLA's stock price goes, the more TSLA index funds have to buy. In dollar value, this is true, but the number of shares S&P 500 index funds have to buy does not change as TSLA's stock price goes up or down.

But isn't the dollar value the point? I don't think it much matter if a fund has to buy 1M shares of something or 5M shares of something... it matters what those shares cost and what their total cash outlay is going to be, especially compared to what they can expect to make from selling whatever gets booted out of the index. (Presumably something toward the bottom of the ranking is leaving, meaning they have to sell a position with a total value of "cheap" and buy into a position with a total value of "expensive" -- where's the money to cover the difference supposed to come from?)

 

[Boomer19]

Exempt" from what?

reporting requirements of Regulation SHO

for a MM - exempt from reporting as an opening short position, based upon the condition that the open short (‘naked short’) was initiated in order to fulfill the obligation of continuous quoting (buy and sell side) of the market for a security by a market maker.

otherwise, if short sale, requires a locate of shares to borrow (and subsequent booking of borrow contract should the short position settle and fail at close of t+2)

the idea being that the intention wasn’t to short and take on position or strategy, but rather fulfill the MMs obligation to continuously quote and provide liquidity.

HFTs, who aren’t subject to MM continuous quoting standards, have migrated their nomenclature to ‘liquidity providers’ to make themselves sound more like a market utility than leech. true they do provide ‘liquidity’ when all things equal, but really the strategy comes first, because they can pull quotes whenever they feel.

the MM, at minimum (and hey, at least it sounds good on paper), has to worry about the rule and the audit consequences of the opening sentence scenario (...but what % of independent audit findings, if any, are found amongst the actual occurrences? - who knows)

 

[kanweg]

Yes, Tesla didn't ship any M3 to Norway yet, or very few... Germany and NL ate them all along the way

not this year in The Netherlands (UK would have deserved a mention). Sales are quite lackluster. There may be a bit of a peak at the end of the year, because the BIK rules change, but not the miracle of last year.

the Accountant posted sales numbers for Europe. Total sold last year was 111k, this year so far 44k. I hate to admit but angry Gordon had a point that Tesla’s market share (as a percentage of EVs sold) will probably lower this year than last year. In several countries there are stimuli that conveniently cut off Tesla from selling cars at the expense of cheaper cars like Zoe etc.



Once MY is produced in Europe and both the cost of shipping is reduced and the import duties no longer have to be apply, we’ll get in a more competitive position.