StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Maybe our Norwegian posters can add other explanations to this list.
I'm not Norwegian but my understanding is a lot of Norwegians are waiting on the new electric Mustang.
Why? Because Norwegians prefer fjords.
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Maybe our Norwegian posters can add other explanations to this list.
I'm sorry this seems too conspiratorial - almost paranoid. These Index Funds are passive investors all they care about is minimizing their S&P 500 "tracking error". How do 3rd party whale investors benefit from orchestrating a "big push down" to "help" the Index Funds have to buy less TSLA? If an S&P indexer buys all their TSLA on the first day it is actually in the index and helps shoot TSLA's price into orbit, that will also spike the S&P index a bit. As long as the indexer's allocation is correct on the first day, they will track that spike and be okay. If TSLA goes down post-add, they are still tracking S&P 500 just fine thank you. I think for index funds it is more of a challenge not to lose too much on the stocks they have to dump that were tossed out of the S&P 500. They need that money plus funds from reduced allocations of continuing names to buy their TSLA and whatever else the secret committee decides to add.
The stock price was like a Falcon 9 rocket and launched to $500 per share so there was a lot of smart "profit-taking". Unfortunately, I wasn't one of the "smart" ones. I've never been good at trying to time the market. Therefore, I am a buy-and-hold-forever-my-son-will-inherit-at-a-stepped-up-cost-basis investor. That said, my "gut" instinct told me that $500 a "new cheap" share was a good price to cash in our tax-free accounts and buy more shares than before later on. I just didn't act on it because of S&P 500, Battery Day, P&D, and Q3. I guess it was a case of "pigs get slaughtered"! (*)
(*) "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns investors against excessive greed.
I sure would love them to do a tour with a MY, this was a big criticism with the M3 which inspired that guy to come over (damn, forget his name), which ended up with him crashing in Italy. In any case, he did a great service for us in giving an early look at the car.
In my case, wife wants a MY, but reality is that it might be too big for her, so if we could see it in person, a decision could be made and if necessary buy a M3 instead.
Any chance we can move the discussions about the ill-conceived mistake this blogger made - to give this jerk undeserved publicity and credibility - to another thread?These types typically just disappear while their theses is not working out for them or move the goal posts. He will just come up with new reasons why Tesla is doomed like one particular factory is not at it's target production rate and you can't count the other factories or how we have to consider the whole story and the solar side is slow. I typically never listen to these types because of how they move the goal post around even during the interview.
He is upset because Tesla is charging for FSD and that's not part of cars? What? What else does one use FSD for? His yogurt maker? Then is cuts his own throat later and starts talking about GMs vaporware like the 21 BEVs in 2021. One exists. The other doesn't. Teslas are actually driving around parking lots with no drivers. FSD in my book altho limited. Where are GM's other BEVs? "They are coming!"
He kept going on and on about the US sales peaking and insinuating how GLOBAL was not important. Then in the next breath he would talk about the EU sales then China.... are global sales important or not. If they are not important then he needs to pick which country is and stick to it. Global sales are increasing. That means Tesla is taking more market share from ICE vehicles particularly since there are 40% less vehicles sold so far this year. Period. Who cares if others also start taking market share from ICE vehicles. Tesla doesn't not sell ICE vehicles. When I guy buys an Ipace what car did he trade in? A Tesla or an ICE. Most are trading in an ICE. Meanwhile Tesla will sell around 500K cars this year. More than last year. Last year 367,500. This year even at 367,501 (it will be more), that equals increased market share. This should have been clearly explained but then the subject is changed too quickly. Rob should have held things on one subject at a time.
If no one can use his guestimates for total production at the end of the year which shows a growth story then ALL of his stuff must be treated the exact same way. A total waste of time. Like toilet boy I will consider him the paper that gets flushed and not listen anymore. He can not stay on target or a talking point. If he sticks to one he gets trampled so he switches around real fast. I mean come on. As soon as he lost the argument about (34 min mark) people trading in ICE for BEVs so the comparison is apples to apples, he totally changed the subject to credits. Typical moron losing a debate.
Besides the obvious facts that Fremont was closed during the ‘European build month’ in Q2 and that for Q3 there are still a lot of Model 3 on ships to be delivered in September, there are also some unique circumstances in Norway that could explain this low position of Tesla:
- Norway has one of the highest incomes per capita in the world, so more people can afford the Audi E-Tron and Mercedes EQC.
- There are already a lot of Teslas on the road in Norway, so some buyers may want to opt for something more ‘unique’ and not buy what the neighbours are driving.
- Tesla service was highly strained in Norway for several years, due to the large number of cars being sold and the inability of Tesla in those days to keep up with service center expansion. Those problems got a lot of media attention. It will have dented Tesla’s image with a lot of people.
Maybe our Norwegian posters can add other explanations to this list.
If you read the quoted part in my post, it explains that this is not how the S&P 500 balances the index.
The S&P does not weigh the index in a way that tells index funds to keep a certain dollar value of TSLA, nor in a way that tells them to keep a certain percentage of their fund in TSLA. The S&P weighs the index in a way that tells index funds to buy a certain number of TSLA shares (relative to the # of shares of other companies in the index).
Again, the quoted part in the message you quoted explains in detail how it works with examples.
This video from Rob Maurer also explains it:
Another way to think of it is like this: If TSLA makes up 1% of the index when it is included, and 12 months later the stock price has doubled and it makes up 2% of the index, this doesn't mean index funds will own twice as many TSLA shares. And if TSLA makes up 5% of the index in 2030, this doesn't mean index funds will own 5 times as many TSLA shares. Similarly, if TSLA stock price is cut in half to $200 after being included at $400, that doesn't mind index funds will own half as many TSLA shares.
UK new car registrations for August just got released. Looks like Tesla delivered around 900 cars (the numbers are not broken out, they’re included in the “Other imports” line), so it seems the focus for European deliveries for Tesla in August was indeed Germany.
However, the wider UK BEV market has grown significantly, most likely encouraged by the Benefit-in-Kind tax that was cut to zero sice April. Here’s the cognitively-dissonant statement from the SMMT:
Zero emission-capable vehicles enjoyed a bumper August as a result of new models coming to market, with sales of plug-in hybrids increasing by 221.1%, although they still only accounted for 1 in 30 sales. Registrations of battery electric cars increased by 77.6% in the month, accounting for 6.4%. However, they make up just 4.9% of registrations year to date, up from 1.1% in the same period last year – clearly illustrating the scale of the challenge ahead to reach the government target for EVs to comprise 70% of new car sales by 2030.
So, YTD BEV registrations are 4.9%, up from 1.1% the year before for the same period. That’s a growth rate of about 445%. If that growth rate is maintained, BEVs reach 100% in 2 years. Obviously that growth rate can’t be maintained towards the top end, but somehow the SMMT uses those numbers to argue it’s difficult to reach 70% market share by 2030. Elon Musk was right to argue that most humans suck at perceiving exponential growth. Also, I’m getting some strong Gordon Johnson vibes…
Thanks for the post, I was checking yesterday and this morning but it wasn't there yet. I've now added the figure to Troy's spreadsheet and the formula calculated 807 Tesla deliveries. Hopefully September will pick-up. Still, with only Denmark and a few smaller markets missing (should be ~200-300 cars) we should be just shy of 8000 deliveries in Europe so far in the quarter which is a 44% improvement over last quarter. (BTW it is also 33% lower than same time last year, but to be fair that was before Covid).UK new car registrations for August just got released. Looks like Tesla delivered around 900 cars (the numbers are not broken out, they’re included in the “Other imports” line), so it seems the focus for European deliveries for Tesla in August was indeed Germany.
However, the wider UK BEV market has grown significantly, most likely encouraged by the Benefit-in-Kind tax that was cut to zero sice April. Here’s the cognitively-dissonant statement from the SMMT:
Zero emission-capable vehicles enjoyed a bumper August as a result of new models coming to market, with sales of plug-in hybrids increasing by 221.1%, although they still only accounted for 1 in 30 sales. Registrations of battery electric cars increased by 77.6% in the month, accounting for 6.4%. However, they make up just 4.9% of registrations year to date, up from 1.1% in the same period last year – clearly illustrating the scale of the challenge ahead to reach the government target for EVs to comprise 70% of new car sales by 2030.
So, YTD BEV registrations are 4.9%, up from 1.1% the year before for the same period. That’s a growth rate of about 445%. If that growth rate is maintained, BEVs reach 100% in 2 years. Even taking the arguably more relevant Y-o-Y increase of 77% from the current 6.4% market share in August, it takes less than 5 years to reach 100%. Obviously that growth rate can’t be maintained towards the top end, but somehow the SMMT uses those numbers to argue it’s difficult to reach 70% market share by 2030. That’s 10 years away. Elon Musk was right to argue that most humans suck at perceiving exponential growth. Also, I’m getting some strong Gordon Johnson vibes…
So what do we reckon today when the day market opens... SP jump up or jump down?!
I think you're missing the minor detail that makes the nuance. In your post, you setup the term "weight-adjusted market cap" and use that to say "the SP at X date doesn't matter". But you have to have a SP in order to calculate market cap! But that isn't to say your point is wrong, only that it's right for a rebalancing (the SP of each stock doesn't affect their relative weights).
BUT! This is an inclusion, not a rebalancing. TSLA's "weight" prior to the rebalancing was zero, so it's market cap (at the time of inclusion) very much does affect it's weight in the index. That's why I feel Artful Dodger's explanation is a better hypothesis.
I think you're missing the minor detail that makes the nuance. In your post, you setup the term "weight-adjusted market cap" and use that to say "the SP at X date doesn't matter". But you have to have a SP in order to calculate market cap! But that isn't to say your point is wrong, only that it's right for a rebalancing (the SP of each stock doesn't affect their relative weights).
BUT! This is an inclusion, not a rebalancing. TSLA's "weight" prior to the rebalancing was zero, so it's market cap (at the time of inclusion) very much does affect it's weight in the index. That's why I feel Artful Dodger's explanation is a better hypothesis.
I'll try to explain one more time why stock price and weight in the index have effectively no effect on the # of shares an index fund has to buy.
You seem to label "short exempt" volume as naked shorts. Why do you believe all "short exempt" orders are naked shorts?
... going by that description I am unsure how there could be "short exempt" volume on days where "the uptick rule" is not in effect, yet there is. Do you have an explanation for this?
Something refreshing, real news direct from the man, always entertaining too - earlier today - weird how the best news are reported by amateur supporters (in this case YouTuber Tobias Lindh).
Also note how efficient and organized the Germans are, there was a transcript (in German) of what Elon was saying, nice touch for the locals. Since the audio quality wasn't so great, I looked up the reverse Google translation, and added it here for convenience.
Tobias Lindh YouTube Video:
"Elon visited Giga Berlin today and had a little spontaneous press conference on arrival. Sorry, for the bad audio. I just had my phone. I didn't expect to get an opportunity to get so close to him, and i didn't know that he would talk to us. I'll try to do better next time. If you want to support me: https://www.paypal.me/tobiaslindh https://www.patreon.com/tobiaslindh Follow me on Twitter for the latest updates: https://twitter.com/tobilindh
DEUTSCH-ÜBERSETZUNG:
GERMAN TRANSCRIPT:
It's a great place to work.
Produce cool cars.
We have to employ quite a few people.
We want people to think about working here.
We want to make it as easy as possible.
We even have a train station that is directly connected to Berlin and stops right in front of the entrance.
I think there are even 2 train stations.
That makes it very easy for people who live in Berlin and want to work here.
You can drive or come by train.
We look forward to having a wonderful place here.
The 2 contractors, Bögl and Goldbeck, did a great job.
You see how fast the progress was.
It's an excellent step forward.
Pre-production technology is used.
While we were doing the ground work, we worked with Bögl and Goldbeck to develop the building parts as prefabricated components.
So you can build incredibly quickly and it will still be a high quality building.
Q: How do you feel personally when you are in Berlin now?
I love it, awesome! I always have a great time when I'm here.
Q: How is X-AE 12 doing?
Oh, HAHAHAHAHA, you mean my child? That sounds like a password. Yeah, he's fine. I think I'll bring him next time. Maybe we'll be back in a few months and I'll bring him.
Q: Mr. Musk, why are you building the factory so quickly? Why are you so fast?
You know, I believe in speed. I also think, let's be serious for a moment, it's very important for the climate that we are fast. It's important ... [people are talking in between] ... who should I talk to? [Woman: talk to me!] ... HAHAHAHA. It is very important that we accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and make it as soon as possible. That is the reason why speed is so important to us. I've been saying this for a long time. It's nice to see companies like VW now take this very seriously. But still only a very small percentage of the cars made are electric. I think we're going to be making more than cars here, maybe batteries, cells and some other things. That would be good for stationary energy supply, wind and solar. The three elements that are important for a sustainable energy future are energy generation, energy storage and electric cars / transportation. Possibly. electric planes. In fact, anything can go electric except missiles. But only in passing. The reason for the importance is that it depends on whether we take our time or are fast. The faster we move forward with the conversion to sustainable energies, the better for the world. That is the reason.
Q: Do you have a message for the people around here?
Sure, first of all we are very happy to be here in Grünheide and are grateful for the support. When we have the grand opening ceremony, the entire neighborhood is invited. Yes, we start the celebration early and it will last a long time. With, I don't know, a rave at the end. A bit of cool techno, something. It's going to be a family celebration and then go on late into the night. A raver den is damn necessary! HAHAHAHHA, absolutely! That's cool.
Q: What are you doing here today?
I came here to see the progress in person. I actually wanted to come earlier, but of course, as you know, the pandemic is. I actually wanted to be here 3-4 months early. I'll be here a lot from now on. The new airport is finally going to open, as I heard. It's very conveniently located.
Q. Did you know about this [Baumisere BER]?
Maybe we are a good thing I don't know
Q. How long will you be here?
I'll be traveling on late tonight. I've been there from the beginning of the week until now. So about 4 days. But it was great, I love Germany, it was great. I am impressed with the talent and engineering skills. I think this is really the ideal place to build our first factory in Europe. We start with the factory but will then also develop new technical concepts here. I want to mention that the factory's painting line will be the most modern of any car factory in the world. That'll be awesome. To be honest, it'll be better than the one in the US. Well, we'll upgrade those in the US later. It's a really cool multi-layer painting system. We'll have a color lab here. It's going to be really cool. Engineering, concept development and production.
Q: What are the future plans with Germany?
As I said, we're going to build the factory. We're going to be doing a lot of innovative stuff here that I'll talk about in the future. It's not just a copy of the Model Y here. It is a radical redesign of the core technologies of car manufacturing. I will report on some of these things here in Berlin on Battery Day later in September. It is the first time that there has been a transformation in the core concept of how a car is built. That's a pretty big / important thing. As I said, production, engineering and concept development.
[Sign autographs]
Q: Have you heard of the water problems here in Brandenburg?
Yes, I tried to understand the water issue. To be honest, it's pretty complex. A brown coal mine that pumps water. Who previously pumped water. The mine provided water but has now been closed. Does that make sense? Are you familiar with that?
I just know that there isn't enough water.
The mine provided water with their pumps or something. I think, basically, that we are not in a dry area.
We still suffer from droughts. The last few years.
Yes, but these trees would not grow here if there was no water. HAHAHAHA, we are not in a desert. I believe the reality is that the factory is not an excessive water user per square meter. It is not a big consumer per square meter over the year. And we will recycle as much water as possible. I'm pretty sure it will become the world's greenest factory. That is our goal. Anything we can do to make them greener, we will do. Because that is also the company's mission. If anyone has any advice, we are open to criticism and advice on what we can do better. Let us know. Ok cool I have to go and see the factory now.