Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

If there is a split #2 in the next 2 years, that would be amazing. I may put in a bid on Lycanthrope's house if that happens.

Or Kruggerand's island!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Gonna leave this right here. 420.... high.... get it ?
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Do you think Elon is going to tweet that Stock price is too high IMO?

 

[AudubonB]

A Q about Sprung structures (oft-referred to as tents, which especially in this case can be misleading):

Are those who are familiar with these in agreement that A/C cannot effectively be used? I don’t see that being any more of an impossibility than is, for example, performing much vehicular assembly in them. Certainly, one can show that a well-insulated rigid building is more efficient at maintaining interior temperatures, but the short-term benefits of a Sprung structure easily might outweigh that inefficiency - and I believe all are in agreement that these are temporary in nature.

An additional point: a true tent-like shade structure erected atop one of these Sprungs would go along way toward enhancing the efficacy of such air conditioning. [On edit: If otherwise not clear, this is specifically just to keep the sun's rays from directly hitting the Sprung]. I know this from personal business experience, which is why we have something similar above our canvas wall tents at our Lodge.

 

[Joe F]

Much easier to provide the software that gives you the facility with your Apple, Withings, Garmin watch, etc.

I use my Apple Watch and the “Remote for Tesla” app by Rego apps, linked to my iPhone. Simply tell Siri to unlock, open trunk or frunk, set climate etc. Works well. With the fob in my pocket, on my S I don’t need it to open my door. About the only time is when my hands are full and I use it to open the trunk. Also handy to tell your watch to flash your lights at night in a parking lot to hone in on where you parked.

The app on the watch is handy too to monitor charge levels at Superchargers when grabbing a meal. Recommended.

 

[Spacep0d]

I see we are arguing again with that shady person who many of us have on Ignore. My advice is to not waste your time. Their intent seems to be only to disrupt the forum. They are clearly not a Tesla supporter or investor.

Clearly I am new here, lol. I'm just not sure why someone would be dubious about a good thing? All good things are good, except this one!

 

[Knightshade]

Response to Knightshade;



Ah but see, this is moving the goalposts a bit.

How? What goalposts, specifically, does that move?

Between EVs (not vs. ICE cars), a million mile battery is an objectively good thing. There's no arguing against this. Why cherry pick?

How's that cherry picking?

The existing battery already lasts 5 times longer than most people need in a new car. (and far longer than that of other EVs for that matter).


The fact a new one would last 10 times longer instead of 5 is incredibly yawnworthy to that new car buyer.

See again nobody rushing out to buy CATLs million mile battery despite it already having been available for a while now.

There's nothing 'bad' about a million mile battery.

Literally nobody suggested otherwise.

Rather than moving goalposts, you're just inventing them from thin air

Why work so hard to exclude this obvious potential benefit?

Because you've yet to give any real examples of any.

As I say "battery now lasts 10 times longer than you will likely own the car" isn't worse than "will last 5 times longer than you will likely own the car"

But it's also not really a value add either.

Which is why other than as a marketing slogan to get headlines, it's vastly, vastly, vastly, less significant a thing to announce than the 2 actually important battery related improvements that Elon himself has cited as the 2 things they actually need to improve

Cost and volume.


Again- nobody cares about a "million mile battery" that already exists

Because it costs a little more- and CATL can't make them especially faster than the normal ones.

So it doesn't address either actual battery problem that anyone cares about

Also, don't forget that range is not the only metric here with respect to miles-driven. *How* you drive matters. I like to drive assertively or at a brisk pace but within reason, and California freeways in free-flowing conditions are quite fast too. A 30 mile commute is one way for me, and I think your 'under 30 miles a day' figure is wildly off the mark but for pandemic exceptions.

Then your "thinking" is objectively, factually, wrong.

There's tons of data available on this.



https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/49536/2000192-american-driving-survey.pdf

"The data show that drivers, on average, made two driving trips per day, with an average total duration of 46 minutes (median 22 minutes) and total distance of 29.2 miles (median 10.0 miles)."

That's why I said either 30 or 10 miles depending if you use mean or median.

The median is only 10 miles because the majority of all trips is less than 10 miles... so the very few much longer trips increase the mean a lot, but the median only a little.


So MOST drivers- 10 miles or less. But the "average" of everyones driving ends up around 30 miles.


Start at the bottom of page 4 if you want more detail.

For all of my working life, my commute has averaged about 30 miles one way

That's great.

But it means, statistically, your commute is MUCH longer than average for people in the US.

Being a statistical outlier happens of course- I've been on BOTH ends of that myself... a previous residence my drive to work was about 3 miles. Now it's well over 30. Both 1 way.

But you probably shouldn't try and make national (or worldwide) judgements based on personal anecdotes that run counter to aggregated facts and data.

. This is even more true for homeowners who end up having to commute since they don't have the option of renting an apartment close to a brick-and-mortar workplace.

Again- regardless of your personal circumstances, that's the vast minority of daily drives.

So again the only cherry picking appears to be yours, trying to imply your personal situation is typical when the facts nationally show otherwise.

Someone's going to be the first to market

Someone already was.... CATL...a few months ago.

Nobody cared- and no customers for it have been announced because JUST being able to say MILLION MILES has no practical value outside marketing. It's not cheaper, and it can't be made in massively larger #s than the normal kind- so it's mostly a nothingburger.


Nobody (for most values of nobody) drives a car for 1,000,000 miles.

The average new car owner doesn't even drive it for 100,000 miles. So why would they care if the battery dies on the 3rd owner or the 6th owner?




What's going to be important for Tesla, the company, is announcing batteries that:


1) Cost less

2) Can be produced far faster and/or in far larger numbers


If it ALSO happens to be rated for 1 million miles. Cool. That'll get even more free press.

But those first 2 things are the ones that add actual value for the company, the shareholders, and the mission since it means Tesla can now:

Make a lot more cars in a year
and
Make them more affordable to more buyers


(and maybe even start supplying cells to others to make the transition to EVs even faster- depending how good a job they do on item 2)



A million mile battery without those things is worthless. We know this. Just ask CATL, who has one that nobody is buying.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Sep 14, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA 1-Ups S&P Snub"

Traded: $33,329,120,638.69 ($33.33B)
Volume: 83,061,648
VWAP: $401.26

Close: $419.62 / VWAP: 104.76%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $391.006B / $186.593B = 209.55%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $380.83B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $212.34B
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 61.1% (62nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.2% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.97% of Short Volume (48th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "420, anyone?"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[gabeincal]

Light day for ARKK today...no selling of $TSLA

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They’ve been buying a lot of Nintendo. Wondering what they know...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Cheers!

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(Ps: it’s a fabulous roadster but I cannot wait to replace it with an even more fabulous one )

looks like a 2.8. Fun toy until your new roadster arrives. That meal looks tasty too!

 

[Rb48888]

You know what the funny thing is?

Some people hear this advice from successful millionaires and billionaires. But they think they are smarter. And most of them have middling returns (yes, some lose everything and even fewer do better, that is the nature of speculation) while people of average intelligence who actually follow the advice, do almost nothing and, in time, become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. More money than they know what to do with.

Now that's funny!

Last year I noticed this board had a culture of trading built into it. When I realized beyond any reasonable doubt that we had hooked a keeper, I spent a good amount of time and effort making sure that participants here understood the time-tested and proven way to wealth and that markets are not predictable and good stocks do not stop appreciating simply because they seem to be very richly valued or because you have doubled or tripled your investment and the most successful way to wealth is to simply hold growth companies with great management. Not to try to time the market. Because the stock can go higher than you ever dreamed possible.

Likewise, earlier this year I spent a good amount of time and effort making the case that pandemics were not a good reason to sell, that historically they were just a temporary adjustment to the indices, that people continue to have sex, eat, drink and make babies, get new jobs, buy houses and cars and markets keep going up. In both cases I provided charts and graphs and wondered why some people were so convinced all the rules of the world we live in would had suddenly changed or why some people thought they were so much smarter than everyone else (even Elon Musk, fer cryin' out loud).

Spoiler: But here's the funny thing:

The greediest amongst us planned to out-smart the "system". They were afraid of losing their "money" and thought TSLA was "over-valued" at $420, $600 and (heaven forbid, $1000). Now, post-split, $84, $125, and $200! Those capable of learning, just a little slower than the rest, bought back in and are glad they did (and wish they were never educated in such a direct and unpleasant manner). The most stubborn are long gone and cringe every time they see TSLA share price flash on their screen. They prefer to not look because it makes them sick to their stomach. Many of them will make the same mistake again and again, repeatedly, throughout their lives. Because they worship money and are afraid to lose it.

I can't help it, I think that's funny (and sad).

I was listening too.

Great job reading the tone and needs of the forum, and responding, at key times, with reasoned and clear insights.

You have often put forth the right message for me, and it’s cool to hear that you were acting with intent.

Thank you.

 

[mblakele]

A Q about Sprung structures (oft-referred to as tents, which especially in this case can be misleading):

Are those who are familiar with these in agreement that A/C cannot effectively be used? I don’t see that being any more of an impossibility than is, for example, performing much vehicular assembly in them. Certainly, one can show that a well-insulated rigid building is more efficient at maintaining interior temperatures, but the short-term benefits of a Sprung structure easily might outweigh that inefficiency - and I believe all are in agreement that these are temporary in nature.

An additional point: a true tent-like shade structure erected atop one of these Sprungs would go along way toward enhancing the efficacy of such air conditioning. I know this from personal business experience, which is why we have something similar above our canvas wall tents at our Lodge.

I've seen Sprung structure ice rinks, used year-round in southern California for ice hockey and ice skating.

According to Frequently Asked Questions - Sprung Structures the insulation is decent: "R-25 to R-30 ratings".

Here's a mention of A/C in a case study:

Toronto Zoo - Sprung Structures

[...] the Toronto Zoo wanted to remove the roof vents and add a HVAC system to increase climate control of the structures year-round. Sprung designed two custom-framed openings that allowed the zoo to add the exact HVAC system, and are extremely happy with how well the Sprung holds air conditioning on hot days. [...]​

 

[mongo]

A Q about Sprung structures (oft-referred to as tents, which especially in this case can be misleading):

Are those who are familiar with these in agreement that A/C cannot effectively be used? I don’t see that being any more of an impossibility than is, for example, performing much vehicular assembly in them. Certainly, one can show that a well-insulated rigid building is more efficient at maintaining interior temperatures, but the short-term benefits of a Sprung structure easily might outweigh that inefficiency - and I believe all are in agreement that these are temporary in nature.

An additional point: a true tent-like shade structure erected atop one of these Sprungs would go along way toward enhancing the efficacy of such air conditioning. I know this from personal business experience, which is why we have something similar above our canvas wall tents at our Lodge.

AC could be used. The key is to aim the air stream at the personnel vs trying to reduce the temperature of the entire volume. Sort of the reverse of radiant heaters at a hockey arena.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
We know know a tent will not work in the Texas summer, but that leaves, Fall-Winter-Autumn, by next summer the GF Austin building project should be sufficiently advanced for temporary production to move out of the tent into a building.
...

Y’all are tripping. In Texas, summer lasted from April through November. I'm telling you, no tents.

 

[gabeincal]

Coincidentally I used to work for Huami (the watchmaker in question). I know the CEO a bit. Just pinged him on WeChat if there is any real info

But if there is, don’t tell us - otherwise we cannot trade for a while!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

This will change after Berlin is up and running Shanghai is exporting RHD Models 3.

FTFY.

Edit: What do you bet that a MiC Model 3 sells in the UK, Japan, Aus, or NZ at the same price that a MiF Model 3 sells for in N. America?

CA-CHING! Demand ↑↑↑ and this is BEFORE Model 2 hits the streets.

Tesla is simply brilliant.

Cheers!

 

[mblakele]

Y’all are tripping. In Texas, summer lasted from April through November. I'm telling you, no tents.

El Paso Zoo - Sprung Structures

Challenge

• The El Paso zoo needed a year round event center to host weddings and large events. The challenge was to find a building solution that could take advantage of the safari area views and provide an aesthetically pleasing upscale design while maintaining the unified look of the existing zoo environment. In addition, the proposed location required a building that could be constructed on a floating concrete slab.

Solution

• 60′ wide by 90′ long Sprung structure was chosen as the product of choice for this year round event center. The structure includes Dupont Tedlar architectural membrane, R28 fiberglass blanket insulation system complete with two glazing walls. In order to blend in with the zoo environment, custom wooden doors and cladding were added to the exterior of the structure. An exterior vestibule encloses and hides the exterior HVAC system.

Results

• The bright spacious clearspan design of the Sprung structure provides an attractive, reliable, climate controlled year round event center. Working with the architects and the city, Sprung was able to create a structure that complements the surrounding environment.

 

[mikevbf]

Love this quote from Chamath Palihapitiya twitter:
"Once you've bought a (stock in a) company, the hardest decision is no decision...patiently waiting to be right"

 

[MC3OZ]

Y’all are tripping. In Texas, summer lasted from April through November. I'm telling you, no tents.

OK I'll bow to local knowledge ... but if Semi production is contingent on the main building works being substantially complete in one area. that still looks like Q1 2021

 

[gabeincal]

looks like a 2.8. Fun toy until your new roadster arrives. That meal looks tasty too!

It’s a 2.5 badged as a 2.3! Manual with limited slip diff! Not too powerful but a lot of fun! The meal is a vegan falafel wrap with hummus, a salad and a porter from the Deschutes Brewery in Bend, OR! It was a very enjoyable one for sure!

 

[snellenr]

Y’all are tripping. In Texas, summer lasted from April through November. I'm telling you, no tents.

Someone better tell SpaceX, then, because they’ve been using them for years at their Starship rocket facility in Brownsville...