Whelp. I learned something. Looks like Sprung are more capable than I thought.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
smorgasbord
Active Member
I wanted to add one note about the million mile battery. The debate here seems to be about whether that’s a practical thing for a car to have.
I think the million mile battery is important, but for the upcoming semi truck and not necessarily the passenger cars. The Class 8 trucks do need a useful life of a million miles or more.
I think the million mile battery is important, but for the upcoming semi truck and not necessarily the passenger cars. The Class 8 trucks do need a useful life of a million miles or more.
smorgasbord
Active Member
What pisses me off is that the EPA lets Daimler deny that they did anything wrong, even though the article points out that its engineers actually found the bypass code in 250K Daimler vehicles.
The $875 Million in fines is OK, but they can't let Daimler not admit guilt. That's an insult to us Americans seeing these vehicles on our roads and polluting the air our children breathe.
The post was about not placing too much trust in one's ability to manage options based on a few months of paper trading, and the examples were provided to show why that is grossly insufficient. Basing options trading on a a few months of trading is why most investors new to options lose money.
The new options investor usually starts with small amounts or using a paper account with some success. Then they build up their positions IRL, and potentially lose everything when a negative event occurs. Only then do they realize that there is no recourse, like holding onto stocks until it turns around.
I obviously felt my cautionary examples were clear, and not easily confused in the context of the post. Though you may disagree, to say that the post is "mostly wrong" means you've entirely missed its point.
You are right, you mean "waiting for confirmation you were right." Be positive, this is about Tesla.
I don’t know, but I buy everything they buy.
My best moves were when I was so busy at work I didn’t have time to look at stocks Charts I had bought and forgot to check for 1 year. These are the periods I made the most profit.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I can understand giving advice to others to not use derivatives like stock options. That doesn't mean they aren't useful tools, and can often be used to be more conservative in one's investing. For instance, a covered call is an especially conservative investment - it means you get paid to sell your stock at a price that's higher than it is today.
That said, it's easy to make the wrong moves with options, and the price can be severe. While the trading pages of all brokerages won't let you sell stock you don't own (short selling is a different page), brokerages will be happy to let you sell options you don't own. I think everyone who's traded options for more than a year has made a mistake like that once. If you catch it right away, you don't lose much money.
When you buy stock, you have the choice to simply wait for the market to recognize how great the company you partially own is. Whether that's the next day, month, year, or decade. However, options are time-limited and you must pay to have more time for your decision to pan out. Many TSLA shareholders up to last year know the pain the stock price's essentially horizontal movement over half a decade incurred. If you put $10K into TSLA stock in 2014 and held, you're doing fine. If you put $10K into TSLA calls in 2014, there's a chance you lost everything, most, some, barely broke even, or even made some money if you got luck with how Mr. Market happened to move.
You don't have to go back to 2014, either. Most of us remember 2019Q1 and what that did to TSLA's price. If the options you were holding expired in Q2 or Q3 of 2019, you probably got hurt. And since selling options can require the use of margin, you may be playing with money you don't expect to be spending.
That all said, I've done pretty well with the limited option trading that I've done. Mostly selling Puts when the price was lower than I felt it should be. The idea was that I'd get some money up front and if TSLA stayed the same or recovered, I kept that up front money. But, if TSLA dropped, then I'd be buying TSLA at an even better price than when I sold the Put, and thanks to the up-front money, even better than the strike price at which I agreed to buy. And the funny thing is I've made far more money on the stock I was "forced" to buy from Puts than I have from all the keeping of the Put premium.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Absolutely agreed- and I'd expect with Kato supplying Plaid S/X that the very first RR line at GF-Nevada would be for exactly that purpose.
Next ones would likely be for CT unless they're gonna build those at GigaAustin (which seems to make sense given the size of the property but I could see they maybe start supplying from GFN, and once GFA has their own RR lines up for CT and eastern-US Ys they free up GFN RR for the regular S/X and 3/Y from the CA factory)
When I bought my Model X in the end of 2016 and people asked how much I paid for it, I always had the smart ass answer: a 20k investment in TSLA in 2012. My answer now is a million dollars. If I had kept the stock I had in 2016 and not bought the MX, the stock would have been worth over a million dollars now. It just goes to show how our perspective changes over time.
Drumheller
Active Member
Daimler to pay $1.5 billion in emissions cheating settlement with the US - CNN
View attachment 588268
Perhaps they will be buying more credits from Tesla?
Is that a dollar per person harmed?
It isn't enough. Companies that intentionally cheated should have been put down, hard, like a rabid dog. End of their story.
If you had not bought the MX in 2016, perhaps Tesla would have failed.
Think you did exactly the right thing.
Just in case no one has posted this yet:
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1305597907689594880?s=20
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1305597907689594880?s=20
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
If they actually started fining companies enough to make breaking the law too expensive they might stop breaking the law- and then they'd have no reason to bribe politicians and regulators.
Can't have that.
So instead we get companies who literally do the math to see if it's worth fixing things they know kills people and finding it's cheaper to leave them broken and pay off the occasional lawsuit or fine.
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dc_h
Active Member
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very large ceiling fans. Probably all you need in Fremont, certainly inadequate in Austin TX.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Well, maybe you'll think, and do better next time. At the very least, maybe you won't write "options" when you mean "long calls". The reality is that there are many ways to play options, and you can bend the risk curve in arbitrary ways, so simplistic statements about what's bad and what's good are always wrong if left unconditional.
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