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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Would you mind sharing your script? thx!

Sure thing! Currently I've been doing quick prototyping using LinqPad, which allows me to quickly iterate and view results. The downside is that everything isn't packaged together neatly yet.

I'm using AngleSharp to gather the post info and then save it to a JSON file. This way I can gather once and, in a separate script, iterate on the output using the stored data.

I'm uploading text files that can either be renamed with .linq extension and used in LinqPad, or turned into regular .cs files and used in a console program or elsewhere.

Note that Dump() is a LinqPad method to view any particular object.
 

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We are happy ants today.

Well, there are ants, and then there are ANTS !

pharaoh-ant-by-Starr-small.jpg


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Response to Knightshade;

If that were true then Teslas wouldn't have way better resale value than even ICE cars in the same class.... (Leafs, with crap batteries, sure don't)

What's self evident is the current lifespan of Tesla batteries is already "good enough" for resale buyers to be 110% fine with it- otherwise they wouldn't be paying significantly more for a used Tesla than literally any comparable vehicle EV or ICE.

Ah but see, this is moving the goalposts a bit. Between EVs (not vs. ICE cars), a million mile battery is an objectively good thing. There's no arguing against this. Why cherry pick?

Not any more than a "1000 mile range" battery helps range anxiety in a country where the average person drives under 30 miles in a day.

It's great for marketing and mental blocks, but not of much practical value given cars are rarely driven even 100k miles before being resold the first time.

You're simply arguing degree. I'm simply arguing an objectively good thing. There's nothing 'bad' about a million mile battery. Why work so hard to exclude this obvious potential benefit?

Also, don't forget that range is not the only metric here with respect to miles-driven. *How* you drive matters. I like to drive assertively or at a brisk pace but within reason, and California freeways in free-flowing conditions are quite fast too. A 30 mile commute is one way for me, and I think your 'under 30 miles a day' figure is wildly off the mark but for pandemic exceptions. For all of my working life, my commute has averaged about 30 miles one way. This is even more true for homeowners who end up having to commute since they don't have the option of renting an apartment close to a brick-and-mortar workplace.

That said, my 60 mile commute is never just 60 miles of range loss due to free-flowing (fast) traffic in SoCal, my driving habits (for fun but also to make effective overtakes), etc. I sold my LEAF because even 150 miles of range wasn't practical for more than a couple days of driving. There are other factors which drain range too such as hills, weather (more A/C or heating), etc. So, if a long life battery means more range retained over the life of the battery, that's an objectively good thing, no?

Which currently don't exist, so probably not a huge bump to sales right now.

But it's in Elon's stated goals, and it certainly looks good for investors to see 'million mile batteries'. Someone's going to be the first to market, and solid battery tech will be an important feature for the business model (and attracting investors).

I'm not really sure the typical uber driver amortizes his vehicle over 30 years..... (in fact isn't there a rule for some classes of rideshare that you can't use a car if it's more than a certain # of years old? so NO help there at all to those folks).

True, but it *does* affect what drivers buy. Again, there are a constellation of metrics in play. Having a 'million mile battery' is objectively better than not, and objectively better than the competition that doesn't have it.

For heavy duty fleet users (the one example cited being Tesloop- which owns SEVEN WHOLE CARS!) those guys are mostly buying unlimited-mileage-warranty S/X models and burning through several stock batteries at $0.00 cost to themselves... so I guess for the literal number of cars you can count on your fingers a million mile battery helps Teslas warranty costs by that amount :))

Sure, but just like the TSLA stock discussed at-length in this very thread, you have to consider both human behavior and the future of EV manufacturing, efficiency, appeal to the mass market, competition against other cars (and EVs) as it affects sales, etc. A million mile battery is a welcome addition to all of the other benefits we get from Tesla. Certainly, it'll be a huge contrast from cars notorious for their lack of battery life and tiny ranges.

All told, I'm in favor of any battery advancement for EVs as a whole, and especially so as a TSLA stockholder and Model 3 owner. :D
 
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Which of 9/22 and 9/23 do you think will be the better day to buy more Tesla?

I lean toward 9/23. Historically, you can buy after the news. But shorts meddled in most of that history. So maybe things could work out differently this time.

(Of course if you don't already have as many shares as you intend to buy, what were you waiting for last week?)
Depends. Bring this up again on 9/22.
 
I think there was some reporting months back that Tesla was planning to ship some components needed by Model Y to Austin from CA factories to enable MY assembly at Austin to begin sooner than might otherwise be possible. Perhaps to enable Austin to begin covering East Coast MY deliveries sooner. Have you seen any recent information confirming or refuting these rumors? Given the apparent scale of Austin GF build out I wouldn't expect it to be difficult to bring both Semi into limited production as well as Model Y in this mode.

However seeing how quickly Tesla is bringing up Model Y production in Shanghai, perhaps it no longer makes sense to get Model Y in Texas jump started this way, rather than just build everything needed over 3 - 6 months as appears to be the time needed at China GF.

Dodger provided a likely answer, when Elon floated the idea of Model Y GA in Texas, Fremont was closed due to COVID-19.
I assume the idea was to bring in painted car shells from Fremont, then do paint correction and GA in Texas.
The implied assumption is highly automated body shop and paint shop facilities in Fremont can be opened with a lower workforce.

The only other reason to accelerate GA in Texas would be due to some bottleneck at Fremont.
We know GF Nevada probably has enough cells for Model 3/Y + small volumes for the Semi.
We know GA5 (Model Y) and a new (re-opened) paint shop were under construction at Fremont.
However, there was talk that the new paint shop would be used for Model S/X only and the lift in Model 3/Y volumes in Fremont would be modest.

Long story short, without a fully functioning paint shop in Texas, accelerating Model Y probably makes little sense.
One reason it makes little sense is there is a much better alternative, export of Model 3 for Asia Pacific and Europe from China.

Previously I considered this export to be limited to RHD for Asia Pacific and the UK, and I identified train as possible alternative for export to the UK.

But stepping back a bit, LFP has significant advantages in the Asia Pacific and Europe.
  • Lower cost
  • Frees up Nickel and Cobalt for more valuable products.
The one market where LFP might not make sense is North America, shipping costs are lower, there are no significant import duties, there is limited volume completion especially at lower price points...

I'll treat Semi GA in Texas as a separate post, otherwise this post will be too long.
 
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So a while back I made a new account on robinhood. As discussed previously I wanted to see how it would handle me trying to buy shares without funds sitting in the account already.

Sep 3, I linked it to my checking/savings accounts and tried to buy several shares of TSLA. It prompted me to pull $1875 over to fund my account.

Sep 4, I get a message the transfer started

Sep 8, I stare at TSLA sitting at $330 and wonder why robinhood is so crappy about handling a funds transfer when I could have easily sent 5x that much money to almost anyone in the US no questions asked in less than 48 hours by a dozen various methods.

Sep 11, I get a message the transfer completed. I notice I could have bought in at $365 instead of $330 it was at a few days before.

I thought robinhood was supposed to be a modern newfangled broker. Apparently they haven't figured out how to move money fast yet. I wonder how many years it'll be until they or another broker figures out how to move money around at a reasonable speed?
 
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I thought robinhood was supposed to be a modern newfangled broker. Apparently they haven't figured out how to move money fast yet. I wonder how many years it'll be until they or another broker figures out how to move money around at a reasonable speed?
They all know how to do it, but they don't want to because every day they can delay makes them extra money.
 
For Semi GA in Texas the requirement is similar to Model Y GA...

To do it quickly requires a tent / shed or an offsite facility...

We know know a tent will not work in the Texas summer, but that leaves, Fall-Winter-Autumn, by next summer the GF Austin building project should be sufficiently advanced for temporary production to move out of the tent into a building.

As with Model Y this only makes sense if the Semi project doesn't require the following facilities (immediately) in Austin:-
  • Stamping
  • Casting
  • Body Shop (Beyond a very simple operation)
  • Paint shop
Being (initially) low volume the Semi probably can be hand painted where paint is necessary...

I'm also fairly sure that the cab will be wrapped, and the cab can be largely a light weight non-structural component.

Talk of lines being spun up at GF Nevada to make cells, etc for the Semi, are the reason for the speculation.

I'm skeptical about the Semi being built even in low volumes at GF Nevada, we were specifically told the packs and motors would come from Nevada but assembly would be elsewhere. I also don't think they can get the work force to do Semi GA at Nevada, or that it is a better alternative to a temporary tent in Texas.

The additional reason for the tent/shed speculation is I can't see the buildings at Austin being ready to house production before February/March 2021. if Semi production is Q1/Q2 2021, I'm not sure if they need to start making cells now, however I would not discount that possibility.
 
So a while back I made a new account on robinhood. As discussed previously I wanted to see how it would handle me trying to buy shares without funds sitting in the account already.

Sep 3, I linked it to my checking/savings accounts and tried to buy several shares of TSLA. It prompted me to pull $1875 over to fund my account.

Sep 4, I get a message the transfer started

Sep 8, I stare at TSLA sitting at $330 and wonder why robinhood is so crappy about handling a funds transfer when I could have easily sent 5x that much money to almost anyone in the US no questions asked in less than 48 hours by a dozen various methods.

Sep 11, I get a message the transfer completed. I notice I could have bought in at $365 instead of $330 it was at a few days before.

I thought robinhood was supposed to be a modern newfangled broker. Apparently they haven't figured out how to move money fast yet. I wonder how many years it'll be until they or another broker figures out how to move money around at a reasonable speed?

I moved a pretty big chunk from a 401k my wife had to an IRA last week. I overnighted TD Ameritrade the check on Thursday; it was available by Friday afternoon, and I loaded up on TSLA at $373.

Today my wife thinks I’m a genius. She might be right. :rolleyes: