Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Quadruple witching day tomorrow.

yes could those that can relate it to TSLA talk about it BEFORE it happens?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1306709556790259713

Piper Sandler's Alex Potter has increased his price target on $TSLA from $480 to $515.

From the referenced article:

Potter calls Tesla Energy "the topic everyone tries to avoid" due to the lack of inclusion of the business line in many analysts' forecasts. Piper Sandler, however, believes the business has significant growth potential and provides upside to Tesla's valuation.

"We now expect Tesla Energy to eventually exceed $200B/yr in revenue, with TSLA controlling over 1/3 of the market for stationary batteries. We anticipate sharply higher demand for these products, particularly in the late 2020s and 2030s, as renewable energy grows toward 40% of electricity generation," says Potter.

Nice to see them call Energy out.....but they're still not giving it enough credit with that $515 PT

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice to see them call Energy out.....but they're still not giving it enough credit with that $515 PT

Agreed....maybe he was referring to the $515 PT after the next split

 

[Singuy]

Sorry if I missed it but isn't this Elon tweet from last night indicating that the new cell line (Roadrunner) is up and running?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1306491844512026624

Could be referring to SpaceX and not Tesla since the point of the Facterio game is to gather resources to eventually get a rocket to launch as the end game.

 

[mejojo]

In case it wasn't obvious, this is a joke poking at hydrogen cells.

(disagreed for the full house)

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I've noticed quite an increase in delivery time for a LR Model X, had been 3-4 wk, now 6-10 wk. I wonder if ordering one now could secure a roadrunner version at decreased price?View attachment 589257
It's only $100 to reserve, I'll give it a chance, just as I did with Model 3, Y and CT.

Congrats! - Did you go performance or LR ?

My guess is performance is the one that will become Plaid with new battery packs etc. Would they just find you an inventory car if there was too much of a price difference ?

I'm curious...has this ever happened before ? ie when they went from the P90D to P100D's did the price go up for existing orders, or did they honour the older (presumably cheaper P90D price for the new P100D ?

 

[MC3OZ]

People like to compare Autonomy Day and Battery Day but IMO there are 2 significant differences.

1. Media sentiment, credibility and prior financial results - chalk and cheese here, Tesla has much better financial results, and that has resulted in a shift in sentiment.

2. Timeline for shipping products - Autonomy Day didn't result in immediate shipping of working FSD, I hope after Battery Day Plaid Model S/X are available for order.

Short term market sentiment is a coin toss because it is totally illogical... however I don't think it will take long for Battery Day to affect the bottom line, Plaid Model S/X should have good margins and more generally Model S/X coming back into fashion with increasing demand is very likely. The Roadster shipping sometime in the next 6-12 months is also highly likely. These Halo cars help sell other models, and Model 3/Y hardly need any help.

So I hope we have Roadrunner packs running around in a number of Model S/X test mules now, and I hope they have been testing for some time. The key target id available to order..

If Battery Day doesn't lift the share price now, it will help sustain/lift prices over the long haul..Knowing how much is "baked in" at anytime or what expectations are is very hard to gauge.. if you guess right, that is more likely to be luck than science.

 

[Singuy]

People like to compare Autonomy Day and Battery Day but IMO there are 2 significant differences.

1. Media sentiment, credibility and prior financial results - chalk and cheese here, Tesla has much better financial results, and that has resulted in a shift in sentiment.

2. Timeline for shipping products - Autonomy Day didn't result in immediate shipping of working FSD, I hope after Battery Day Plaid Model S/X are available for order.

Short term market sentiment is a coin toss because it is totally illogical... however I don't think it will take long for Battery Day to affect the bottom line, Plaid Model S/X should have good margins and more generally Model S/X coming back into fashion with increasing demand is very likely. The Roadster shipping sometime in the next 6-12 months is also highly likely. These Halo cars help sell other models, and Model 3/Y hardly need any help.

So I hope we have Roadrunner packs running around in a number of Model S/X test mules now, and I hope they have been testing for some time. The key target id available to order..

If Battery Day doesn't lift the share price now, it will help sustain/lift prices over the long haul..Knowing how much is "baked in" at anytime or what expectations are is very hard to gauge.. if you guess right, that is more likely to be luck than science.

The currently highest market cap technology company had their conference and launched a bunch of app based services. Talking about underwhelming.

I think the world will be talking about Tesla for months after Sept 22nd. It's what the best what PHYSICS have to offer. It's not going to be a hour long presentation about some lame app for the car. I think it'll make Tesla 1.0 look obsolete. Semi 1000 mile range? Roadster 2.0 30% weight reduction? Plaid being the fastest production car ever with 500 miles range? Powerwall 3.0? Doubling cell production yoy until multiple terawatts?

I think all these analysts will start crunching numbers and come out with weird PTs they couldn't believe.

 

[tinyrodent]

Lots of activity at Giga Texas today

 

[mekberg]

Could be referring to SpaceX and not Tesla since the point of the Facterio game is to gather resources to eventually get a rocket to launch as the end game.

Tesla is the resource gathering bit just FYI.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Likewise, your question of whether I have ever categorized my predictions and checked for accuracy is unnecessarily derogatory. Of course I do this....

My returns since May 2019 have significantly outpaced the stock price appreciation.

There's nothing derogatory in the question I asked. I would guess that almost nobody keeps track of their predictions. We see endless predictions on this thread alone, and pretty much nobody takes any responsibility for them. For instance, the notorious TT007 predicted a rocket to the moon at least ten times as often as TSLA actually went up significantly. But if you actually do keep track, then how about publishing the pointers to the predictions and the numbers as you see them? I predict that your predictions of anything short term is no better than random, just like everybody else's.

Here are my recent attempts at fairly short-term predictions, paying no attention whatsoever to any technical analysis. Feel free to critique.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (Aug 23)
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (Aug 27)
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (Aug 28)
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (Sep 4)
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (Sep 11)

I can't say that their (to my mind) fairly good accuracy has helped me make all that much money during this period. The problem is I don't really listen to my own predictions with much discipline. On the other hand, my portfolio is up 756% year to date, so I'm doing something right during this incredible rally. But most of that was recovering from a 90% drop from my previous all-time high in January, 2018. Apparently my approach works less well when the stock goes both up and down. Imagine that.

In all, I know for a fact that a simple buy and hold without leverage or margin would have made me much more money than I have made since 2013. And for that, we can pretty much eliminate all daily or weekly or even monthly predictions about what the stock might do. But of course that's much less entertaining. Has the entertainment been worth its cost though? I very much doubt it.

I am open to critical review. If you find something in my work that you think is incorrect, feel free to speak up.

Hey, your work is fine and I never said otherwise. That I have no use for technical analysis just means I don't use it. I do read it occasionally when people reference it. And the only reason I even mentioned it this time was because @EV forever was using your post of February 4th, 2020 as some kind of indication that there was manipulation going on.

Wishing you well in your investments.

And I you. There are many paths to enlightenment. Whatever works.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I've noticed quite an increase in delivery time for a LR Model X, had been 3-4 wk, now 6-10 wk. I wonder if ordering one now could secure a roadrunner version at decreased price?View attachment 589257
It's only $100 to reserve, I'll give it a chance, just as I did with Model 3, Y and CT.

Just FYI....still only 1-3 week delivery time in Northern California on Model X. Another interesting data point...not seeing any discounting on Model X inventory on price tracking sites.

 

[Curt Renz]

Piper Sandler Raises TSLA Price Target to $515

Piper Sandler raises price target

It was their technical analyst Craig Johnson whose recommendation inspired me in early 2013 to purchase my first TSLA shares at $38 ($7.60 post-split) each.

 

[wipster]

This is a good setup for breaking out after the B Day, if it goes well. I am more leery if SP runs up too much into the B Day, and that can set up for sell-the-news.

I agree and share your concerns Fobble. As good as I think the SP reaction will be during the presentation, which will AH, I too feel there may be a let down following. However, we do have the 3rd quarter deliveries and financials following. Anyone care to share they think we're going to do on both parts and the impact it may have on the SP?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree and share your concerns Fobble. As good as I think the SP reaction will be during the presentation, which will AH, I too feel there may be a let down following. However, we do have the 3rd quarter deliveries and financials following. Anyone care to share they think we're going to do on both parts and the impact it may have on the SP?

I think 140k is a safe bet and could result in a 500-550 share price. I still think there's a decent shot at 150k, which could propel the stock past 550. 155k gets us above 600 imo.

Haven't done the earnings off of those numbers but some have done estimates at 145k and it exceeds the highest wall st estimates.

 

[larmor]

The currently highest market cap technology company had their conference and launched a bunch of app based services. Talking about underwhelming.

I think the world will be talking about Tesla for months after Sept 22nd. It's what the best what PHYSICS have to offer. It's not going to be a hour long presentation about some lame app for the car. I think it'll make Tesla 1.0 look obsolete. Semi 1000 mile range? Roadster 2.0 30% weight reduction? Plaid being the fastest production car ever with 500 miles range? Powerwall 3.0? Doubling cell production yoy until multiple terawatts?

I think all these analysts will start crunching numbers and come out with weird PTs they couldn't believe.

Still remains curious how they are going to get the cybertruck to get so much range, acceleration, and towing capacity with non aerodynamic wheels which don’t appear to be rolling resistant friendly.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla is the resource gathering bit just FYI.

Still most likely talking about SpaceX. He said it's like speed running the game in real life. Speed running a game = trying to complete it at record time. You have to factor in what it is to be completed, which is a rocket launch in this game. I give it a 95% chance he is talking about Starship.

Btw, the rockets are all built from scratch at spaceX. They gather resources and build parts trying to launch rockets asap is kind of the entire SpaceX business. Elon have mentioned that he wants to manufacture rockets as fast as possible to drive down cost and increase launches as lots of payload needed to colonize mars.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 11 minutes ago: Everything Investors Need to Know About Tesla’s Battery Day

Excerpt:

Tesla hosts its highly anticipated battery technology day next week. Analysts are using phrases like "long anticipated," "major milestones" and "mind blowing" to describe the event.

Tesla (ticker: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk added to hype recently tweeting "many exciting things will be unveiled." He closed the tweet with a lightening bolt emoji.

The event is a big deal for the stock. It will shape investor opinions about the future of electric vehicles and Tesla's technological lead. To prepare for Tuesday, investors can divide likely topics into a few categories: battery cost, battery reliability, and battery capacity. New battery technologies should also discussed. And investors should also be ready to hear about stationary power, which includes Tesla Powerwall business.

 

[AudubonB]

Wouldn’t work for me. No eating allowed in my Model 3 (white interior).

Understood. Our own situation is that forbidding eating when we have both long-distance driving AND a newborn baby infant toddler 3 y-o! is not tenable.

Fortunately, we have found that even mushed blueberry stains come right out from the white interior of Chitty Chitty Shush Shush.

update on edit: the only - and not insignificant - concern I have had with food has been with dry crumb material. I am relentless in that regard as I worry about such particles intruding into the ventilation holes and affecting the seat coolers. If you don’t know, Tesla’s cool-venting draws air into those perforations, so there is no natural ‘blowing out’ of the seats any such particulates. I’m certain this has been exhaustively discussed elsewhere on TMC.

 

[ZachF]

Quadruple witching day tomorrow.

If the price gets enticing, I might just toss a coin....