Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

ZeAp this is the best news I've seen all day.

I'm going to get me one of them new ffffffast Model 3s. YAY!!!!

 

[Unpilot]

Screw Trip..
He lost .....biggly....let's move on.

 

[mejojo]

aa

And what does that test? You realize that has a 20% chance of occurring randomly, right?

The only thing I can think of that it might test is how gullible people are.

Except that it has happened 6 out of the last 16 week-ending closes. And yes, I am familiar with probability science.

If I were really interested, I'd continue the research. What I am curious about is why are some so willing to ignore the profit motive involved.

 

[stealthyc]

aa


Except that it has happened 6 out of the last 17 week-ending closes. And yes, I am familiar with probability science.

If I were really interested, I'd continue the research. What I am curious about is why are some so willing to ignore the profit motive involved.

I mean 35% is still not a lot, i.e. much more likely to not happen than to happen. I'm curious what made you pick 17 weeks? I'd be more interested in 52 weeks or so (but not asking you to look it up for me)

** edit ** I looked it up myself, and it happened 15 out of the last 53 weeks, so about 28% of the time

 

[Tim S]

But I thought they already released a statement that said nothing had materially changed with the company. They didn’t say there was no contract with Tesla, but they also didn’t say there was one.

I could see them wanting to put a lid on the stock if there wasn’t a contract w/Tesla because as soon as that became clear on BD the stock would plummet and quite possibly below previous level.

If there is a contract, then I see no reason to stop trading. They’ve just secured their future for as long as the mine/s produce.

That was HNCKF Giga Metals Corp (nickel mine in Canada) who released that statement. This is PLL Piedmont Lithium (Australian company with lithium mine in North Carolina) that is halted. Two different companies.

 

[Christine69420]

Well there is a high probability that I'm finding that Fridays are often quite boring. And that is not random.

A nice dinner helps! And doing some cleaning.

(not that over 4% up isn't great)

 

[dm28997]

A few points that occurs to me. Mr. Tripp was in the military and probably familiar with weapons and was angry, thus a threat was possible.

The sealed case may be to protect proprietary data.

Ms. Lopez's actions in this would be of interest.

I wonder how much money Mr Tripp could have made if he had or bought stock options.
I believe his actions cancelled any he might have.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Say

Say is open for Battery Day questions. Didn't read the fine print, and thus my non-battery question is wasted, lol. xD

 

[vikings123]

So looking at the options chart (as of open - will evolve throughout the day):

It's complicated around 440 - 450, with quite some puts putting some upward pressure versus the calls.

As it stands, if I had to pin the tail on the donkey, would go for $445

View attachment 589511

Nice call, seems like 445$ is the target. Let’s see if there is some last minute battery day FOMO. It will likely trade within a really tight range in the last hour and the low volume helps the MMs keep it in check.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Green found some new clues in the firmware... New battery pack and front motor for S/X... Sounds very plaid to me.

Would also imply that production is imminent or occurring.

Anybody familar with previous firmware revision history and timing related to hdw updates?

TIA.

 

[ggr]

Still

View attachment 589537

Remember that the "shares" in the US are just ADR's (American Depository Receipts). Even though some of their mines are in the US, it's an Australian company. So trading in the US won't resume until it resumes in Oz. Which can't happen until late Sunday US time. If it doesn't resume trading, I'm going to assume it's because of Battery Day. Fortunately (for me) I stocked up on PLL a couple of days ago.

edit:

Looks like they might not resume trading until 9/22 pending some kind of announcement

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200918/pdf/44mrws13fml7c0.pdf

Well spotted! That's Monday evening in the US, though, and it says "earlier of", so that makes it less likely to be a Tesla deal.

 

[ggr]

The point was to discuss that your post here, per Elon, was factually incorrect in this specific aspect (breaking presses vs. dies):



You then went in your last statement to say if the steel were thinner, it could be stamped/pressed (that is correct). I went to expound upon why it cannot be thinner.

Let's just move on, we are obviously talking around each other and basically saying the same thing with variations in terminology.

You're the one fixated on "presses". What Elon said was "machines". The dies are just as much part of the machine. @Krugerrand is the expert here about this stuff.

 

[bkp_duke]

You're the one fixated on "presses". What Elon said was "machines". The dies are just as much part of the machine. @Krugerrand is the expert here about this stuff.

Care to revise this? Quote from Elon himself.

I'm done with this topic, if you want to argue it further, go argue it with Elon.

 

[mejojo]

I mean 35% is still not a lot, i.e. much more likely to not happen than to happen. I'm curious what made you pick 17 weeks? I'd be more interested in 52 weeks or so (but not asking you to look it up for me)

** edit ** I looked it up myself, and it happened 15 out of the last 53 weeks, so about 28% of the time

Is there an easy way to reap the closing price for given days? Did you use the Google or Excel function?

 

[bkp_duke]

Would also imply that production is imminent or occurring.

Anybody familar with previous firmware revision history and timing related to hdw updates?

TIA.

IIRC we saw the 100 kWh pack a few months after it was discovered in the firmware.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I mean 35% is still not a lot, i.e. much more likely to not happen than to happen. I'm curious what made you pick 17 weeks? I'd be more interested in 52 weeks or so (but not asking you to look it up for me)

** edit ** I looked it up myself, and it happened 15 out of the last 53 weeks, so about 28% of the time

Aaaannnd... it doesn't mean a damn thing anyway without a control. Perhaps there are natural forces which cause stocks to close in particular ranges. You would have to take a large portion of the population of all stocks as a control.

What I think is that the obvious inclination of people to make money means that they buy and sell cheap options just before expiration in hopes of making a lot of money. Buy something for a dime and have it be worth a dollar a minute later is way cool. This sort of activity pushes the closing price towards option strikes. But it isn't caused by market makers manipulating the stock, just ordinary small-time greed. Go ahead and try to show that any other explanation is much more likely. And who cares anyway if you can't put it to use for yourself?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol....where are the cries of manipulation as the MM push us up to $450 to screw over shorts?

 

[mejojo]

Lol....where are the cries of manipulation as the MM push us up to $450 to screw over shorts?

When the umpire calls a ball a strike, it matters greatly whether you are the batter or the pitcher.

 

[mrmage]

It would be great to own cheap week calls just before Oct 5. With battery day on Sep 22, delivery numbers around Oct 2, and analyst updates coming up, I can see the SP bumping up. However, today's premiums are crazy high - Oct 2 500c is $30, 460c is $45. Yuck.

Here's a double calendar spread at strikes 460 and 500 that costs $13.60 today. As shown by the profitable section, it should have a nice return if SP ends up between $400 to $589, but that's the backup plan.

I'll own the long calls the week after post-delivery numbers for an effective price of ~$7 If SP ends below either strike the week before. If SP is higher on Oct 2, I'll make a nice profit unless the SP > $589. I'll be celebrating too much to notice this trade if that happens.

Closing the short calls on Oct 2 would be prudent.

I bought one playing around today, but may place a material position before battery day or just after. With calendar spreads, setting strikes slightly over SP on the short legs is the key, with today's SP being secondary. Not advice!

 

[Singuy]

Lol....where are the cries of manipulation as the MM push us up to $450 to screw over shorts?

Apparently they overshot it.