Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Nikola Soars!!!!!


LOL

 

[CyberDutchie]

The same story every day, MM party poopers in the last half hour of regular trading

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Lol....where are the cries of manipulation as the MM push us up to $450 to screw over shorts?

I said months ago that manipulation goes both ways, and I'm fine with the manipulation that makes me money...

Ultimately we are all tiny minnows swimming with sharks and whales. The first priority is, and has always been, don't get eaten. The second priority is helping yourself to the morsels they leave behind after gorging themselves. Never get your priorities in the wrong order.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Lol....where are the cries of manipulation as the MM push us up to $450 to screw over shorts?

Up to $450? Are we talking about the same stock?

 

[ggr]

For anyone who has / had convertible bonds, have you converted them to shares yet? If not, why not?

At current prices, the 2% interest payments on face value is insignificant. I'm considering converting them to shares when Tesla issues their next offer.

I hold some, and haven't converted. I just don't see a reason to do so. Maybe I would if someone gave me a good reason.

 

[Curt Renz]

Apparent Triple Witching Day manipulation during the final 10 minutes.
Option writers during that time may have found it more profitable to disappoint more call owners than put owners.

Nevertheless:

TSLA
+4.42 % for the day
+18.63% for the week

 

[Tslynk67]

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1307027874969530369?s=20

Ahem, Plaid?

View attachment 589615

Greg Mental / Nuts Wester...

 

[Unpilot]

Man that was some furius dumping in the last few minutes...reminded me of a certain dumping effect back in 73 after to much late night taco bell.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Well, I still don’t agree with your statement: “Tripp threatening to go on a shooting rampage claim of Tesla has proven to be baseless”

Tesla might have known the threat to not be credible (based on one police officer’s opinion, I might add), but it doesn’t mean the threat wasn’t made. The threat was made and that is what Tesla said. Telsa had zero incentive or responsibility to additionally add “but a police officer doesn't think he’ll do it”.

But, was Tripp in motion?

 

[Tslynk67]

So looking at the options chart (as of open - will evolve throughout the day):

It's complicated around 440 - 450, with quite some puts putting some upward pressure versus the calls.

As it stands, if I had to pin the tail on the donkey, would go for $445

View attachment 589511

So, just to give some gravitas (Iain M Banks reference there) to my bold prediction...

EDIT: that's a c455 for today, now I see that not really obvious from the screenshot... $410 beer money or 100 shares sold, let's see... Right now looking accurate, but sometimes there's a huge break-out of FOMO late on Friday...

View attachment 589534

Yeah, well, suck my stonk @Bet TSLA - $450 cash for free, nice, no?

 

[gabeincal]

I did, $5 per month. Only other one I subscribe to is Solving the Money Problem, Steven is super funny.

You can always consider being a Patron to your Fremont drone operator also

 

[Bet TSLA]

The Nasdaq is currently down 202 points (-1.85%). TSLA is up 12 (2.8%). Chill. Be pleased.

Meanwhile I have to decide what to do with my 10 445 short puts expiring today. Break even is just under 420, so it's just a question of how greedy to be.

So I kept them almost to the end, hoping they would expire worthless. But I ended up buying them back in the last few seconds of trading at $2.70. So I only made about $23K on the trade instead of almost $26K. Happy either way. That was quite a fast drop at the end of the day. I passed up an opportunity to get out for $0.14 when TSLA was at 450. C'est la vie.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Yeah, well, suck my stonk @Bet TSLA - $450 cash for free, nice, no?

You weren't betting against me. Why the aggressive rhetoric? Your bet was extremely low risk and paid off accordingly. It didn't matter that you were wrong about 445.

 

[T@oo]

You weren't betting against me. Why the aggressive rhetoric? Your bet was extremely low risk and paid off accordingly. It didn't matter that you were wrong about 445.

For the heck of me, I can‘t figure out what your trying to accomplish.

 

[ggr]

semi-mod: No more Tripp in this thread. Seriously. --ggr

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interesting article - I think expectations on the Street may be higher than some here are expecting:

Tesla Battery Day Will Be “Mind Blowing.” Here’s What to Expect.

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy thinks Tesla’s event will focus on cost reduction, potentially offering $75 per kilowatt-hour. Cost reduction “can help unlock sales at lower price points and thus fuel further growth,” writes Levy in a recent research report. He rates shares the equivalent of Hold and has a $400 price target for the stock.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also rates shares the equivalent of Hold. His price target is lower, however, at $272 a share. He asks in his event preview report, “could Tesla communicate plans ...to target $50 per kilowatt-hour?” That’s the lowest battery cell cost target Barron’s has seen in a Wall Street research report. (Jonas’ preview note, by the way, is the one with “mind blowing” in the title.)

Anything below $100 per kilowatt-hour, along with a credible plan to get there, should be a win for Tesla shareholders.

And:

Stationary Power
Investors shouldn’t forget about stationary power. “Stationary storage growth, while solid, has been far off Tesla’s prior stated goals,” writes Levy. “In 2014 Tesla cited a goal of reaching 15 gigawatt hours of Tesla Energy volume by 2020 ...t year they had only 1.7 gigawatt hours.”

One problem is battery cell capacity has been constrained. Tesla has been busier building cars. The storage market, according to Levy, is “nascent” but represents upside as costs come down and capacity ramps up.

Wild Cards
Several analysts wonder if Tesla will become a supplier to the EV industry. Selling batteries and battery systems to other auto makers. That’s one potential wild card.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo proposes an interesting idea in his preview report. Tesla might “adopt an ownership model for batteries, whereby the company manages distributed energy assets, similar to an electric utility.” He points out Tesla already has “Autobidder” which is a technology helping utilities manage electricity stored in batteries.

Autobidder is a new issue for an analyst to raise. It doesn’t often come up on management conference calls.

On the other hand, I think there is still room for upside surprises with respect to production capacity:

Ferragu believes investors want to know Tesla will have enough capacity to make 2 million cars by 2025. That implies a battery capacity increase of about 3x between now and then. (Tesla has about 63 gigawatt hours of battery capacity today.) Morgan’s Jonas forecasts Tesla to be producing 439 gigawatt hours of batteries by 2030. That’s a sevenfold increase in 10 years, or about 21% growth a year, on average.

Any guidance from Tesla management about capacity can be compared with those figures.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/christiaanhtznr/status/1306962924666327040?s=21

So it appears VW is pooling with MG (SAIC) for EU CO2 credits.

Does not speak well for ID.n expectations.

Edit:
Plan A: Diesel cheating (oops, got caught)
Plan B: Quickly make our own BEVs (oops, can't do S/W)
Plan C: Screw it, pay our way out.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q

https://twitter.com/christiaanhtznr/status/1306962924666327040?s=21

So it appears VW is pooling with MG (SAIC) for EU CO2 credits.

Does not speak well for ID.n expectations.

I'm not sure how entering into an agreement with SAIC does much of anything for VW to avoid penalties. They only sold a few thousand EV units across Europe in 2019 and have no brand recognition.

VW better pray to God that they somehow can figure out their production woes and also that demand is there after that damning German review of the ID3....or else they're going to pay billions in fines.

 

[mrmage]

I hold some, and haven't converted. I just don't see a reason to do so. Maybe I would if someone gave me a good reason.

Mainly for the liquidity and flexibility. For example, I can write DOTM calls or set up collars to earn income off stock without selling it.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So here we are three weeks after August 28, split day. We're down fifty three cents from then. But somehow it feels like a lot has happened to TSLA in that time. Apparently not.