Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

True, but they also keep employing. One hopes they always offer redeployment where possible, and should an opening arise later I would expect that a prior history at Tesla would rank pretty highly.

Someone else getting hired is no consolation to laid off employee.

One would hope employees could transfer but don't see any evidence of this in significant numbers.

Point is Tesla employees are getting routinely "decimated" or close to it.

Meaning look around at nine of your colleagues. One of you will be gone soon enough. Not good for employee moral. Not good for encouraging employees to offer ideas on how to improve efficiencies.

I REALLY hope we can go the rest of 2019 without another round of layoffs.

 

[InDaClub]

Automotive crisis: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

 

[KarenRei]

This is key. Google's Waymo struggles with this in their geofenced urban area driving even now - though this feature probably doesn't have much to do with geofencing.

Waymo One Experience (Part 2) : SelfDrivingCars

Left turns seem to be their bugbear. This news team followed Waymo cars, and not only did they notice them regularly need intervention on left turns, but there was one left turn that they never saw the cars manage to take on their own.

Waymo is not masters of autonomy - they're masters of PR.

 

[keydiver]

Ah... I'm going to take this quote from @Fact Checking's edit of the purported transcript, my italicization and underlining (because bold's already taken):
"It's not just a software restriction otherwise our our our materials cost would be too high. "
That implies that there is a software restriction, although that's contradicted just before, too. I don't know.

I think your confusion might be from using the wrong definition of "just". The meaning changes a lot depending what synonym you substitute for "just":
Its not exactly a software restriction
Its not only a software restriction
Its not simply a software restriction

I think the meaning closest to what Elon actually meant is "Its not simply a software restriction", otherwise he would be contradicting himself, as you noted. The SR pack really is an SR pack, IMO, not just a software restricted SR+ pack.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m positive that originally Elon said they’d pay back via a combination of cash and stock and then later on said it would be all cash because of a desire not to dilute shareholders.

I can’t give you a link to the information, but it happened right when all those against us first started flogging the idea that Tesla couldn’t pay back the debt. I want to say it was in an 2018 ER.

No Elon didn't. That was Dana Hull on Dec 6, 2018.

 

[hacer]

...There is no "running " total of FTDs reported. If the authorities (SEC, FINRA, DTCC) wanted to present this information in an organized, up-to-date fashion they certainly could with the capabilities of today's computers. Why can't one just go to the SI site or the FTD site, plug in TSLA, and get cumulative data through yesterday's trading??? Why?

The SEC reports of FTDs say that they provide only cumulative totals; you have to take differences to see the daily changes.

 

[heltok]

Yeah couldn’t care less about NIO’s so called lifestyle social club. Why would I want to spend much time there? I don’t even go to Apple Stores often. Doing business? Seriously? Just like you said, it’s superficial. Just another Tesla wannabe.

Imo in the end it seems pretty pointless to be a part of it. But I can also feel that if I was not allowed to go there, a part of my inner child would really want to be there. Take away a toy from a child and see the reaction... I remember when I first made a little money and started having access to fancier places I previous could not access, I overdid it and went to those places more to prove a point than because I felt that it was my best option. And Chinese have a bit different mentality around display of wealth(fortune) than us westerners. So it might make a lot of sense in China even though it might seem strange to us.

 

[EVNow]

How do you take the quarterly figure of a quarter that is in progress?

Are you saying they take Q4 figures for Q1? Then how are they talking about monthly trends in the articles? Why are the January and February numbers different?

Remember that AlphaHat is also disagreeing with InsideEVs:

Tesla’s US Q1 Deliveries are Surprisingly High (so far)
Tesla Delivered More Vehicles in January than Reports Suggest

(Although AlphaHat's numbers are between those of Edmunds and InsideEVs)

Someone is going to have serious egg on their face when the final numbers come out, and I'm not sure who it's going to be.

I've not looked at this closely in post-3 months. In pre-3, they would take their estimate for the quarter and more or less equally divide among 3 months - even though we know Tesla always had huge seasonality. Alphahat is new - so, what I'm saying only applies to others.

Anyway, this is what InsideEVs says now.

Tesla does not break down monthly sales figures by country. So, they do not release delivery data for the U.S. at all. Instead, Tesla offers a global look at the end of each quarter. For this reason, our monthly Tesla delivery data is estimated. It’s impossible to be 100% accurate. We just want to have the best numbers possible.

As a general rule, our monthly and quarterly estimates are within ~5% of actual. In recent months we have been within ~4% of actual on Model 3 sales for instance. At the end of each quarter, after Tesla releases final sales numbers and global data, we adjust our U.S. numbers as needed. We only make adjustments at the end of a quarter and after global registrations are in. We make a note of these adjustments in our monthly sales report.

I'm paying attention to Alpha Hat only now. This looks interesting … they claim better accuracy for the quarter than InsideEVs. Not sure what they are talking about in terms of "GPS activity pings from anonymized cellular devices at Tesla delivery centers". Do they have people snooping in front of Tesla delivery centers all over the US 24/7 ?

Alpha Hat’s Tesla US Deliveries Dataset is constructed by utilizing GPS activity pings from anonymized cellular devices at Tesla delivery centers. The data was within 1% of Model 3 deliveries for Q4 and has an R² of greater than 0.97 with reported delivery counts for all Tesla vehicles. The dataset runs on a one-week lag and is available on a subscription basis to institutional investors. Please reach out to [email protected] to learn more.

 

[EVNow]

Almost every luxury products firm can sell to ~80% of consumers, either via lower quantities, or by tiered features:

• You can buy an entry level B&W speaker, you don't have to buy the $20,000 Nautilus to own a B&W set.

There are TONs of audiophile equipment that is solely intended for ~5% of the population in terms of price. I mean, half the stuff that gets reviewed on Stereophile is probably like that. Cheapest Wilson Audio speakers now start at $15k a pair.

Wilson Audio Specialties Sabrina loudspeaker

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Imo in the end it seems pretty pointless to be a part of it. But I can also feel that if I was not allowed to go there, a part of my inner child would really want to be there. Take away a toy from a child and see the reaction... I remember when I first made a little money and started having access to fancier places I previous could not access, I overdid it and went to those places more to prove a point than because I felt that it was my best option. And Chinese have a bit different mentality around display of wealth(fortune) than us westerners. So it might make a lot of sense in China even though it might seem strange to us.

Well if they want to display their social status, they would drive a Tesla instead of NIO anyway.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No Elon didn't. That was Dana Hull on Dec 6, 2018.

Ya, she did a really good job of making people think that was ever the official company line, despite a complete lack of evidence supporting it.

 

[Joe F]

Pretty spot on. My only caution is to assume that TMC is representative of the broader Tesla community or the larger car-buying population.

Oh, no assumptions made about that at all. The savvy find their way here, discounting the trolls. Then there’s the ones that really shouldn’t be behind the wheel of any car at all, IMHO.

Read somewhere (here or twitter) of a woman proclaiming that if she were spending “that much money” on a car, she expected to be pampered by Tesla. My first thought was, now there goes someone who we’ll read about who rocketed her car through the plate glass window of her day spa or spin class building, clutching an overpriced cup of Starbucks coffee, later claiming the car accelerated on its own.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Why do CNBC option traders always tell people to buy puts when TSLA is under 300. I know at least three times last year when they recommended it that they were wrong. I wonder if they're working for the put sellers and trying to take money from the retail sheeple. I mean really, if you're gonna buy puts, you buy them at 350+, not under 300. I've even see Montana Skeptic and other SA authors tell people to go all in short at 300, but refrain or be careful when it is above 350. This may also be part of wacked short strategy trying to go for the kill when the shares are down, while saving ammo when the shares are up. Traders won't necessarily make money with such a strategy, but there is a better chance to take out TSLA. Not an issue if these short hedgies are funded buy big oil and other interests, whose purpose is to kill Tesla and are unconcerned with losing millions here and there.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Nice gif from Tesla China

 

[Intl Professor]

Yes, however, around here we prefer to call him Dick.

I resemble that.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Nice gif from Tesla China

View attachment 382466

I thought China was metric?

 

[Buckminster]

But I think the goal is to reduce test drives — not eliminate them. You don’t need a store for a test drive. About a week ago I got a call from Tesla inviting me for a test drive. They offered to come to my house to do it.

Another genius move. Benefits of Tesla coming to you:

1. No infrastructure to pay for
2. It feels like a luxury experience
3. They are mobile and this is actually fairly efficient
4. Your whole family get involved
5. Your neighbours see you standing around the car for 20 mins in the driveway
   1. This promotes Tesla to your neighbours
   2. Plus it links you to the Tesla for further discussion. What else are you going to talk about now for the next month - you have now become the expert / salesman.

Here's what Elon said in the recent interview:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

'Elon Musk: Oh so that's good point actually [inaudible]. We Were first making sure that anyone who placed a reservation early absolutely has priority so any any early reservation holders will absolutely get priority as they should for the $35,000 Model 3 for sure."​

One plausible way to give them priority with new orders open as well is to wait a few days and then assign those cars first. I'd expect the delivery estimate to be recalculated then - sometime next week.

Are you suggesting some that have already ordered won't get it within the 2-4 weeks?

 

[VValleyEV]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

Pulling some demand levers, unpulling some others, as growth and production cost improvements race on.

View attachment 382257

Is there a scale shown for the GAAP profit/loss?

 

[Todd Burch]

What is the technique for getting out?

1. Open driver’s door.
2. Remove seat belt.
3. Crank the wheel all the way to the right.
4. Floor it.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I thought China was metric?

Yes, but SR and Mid Range Model 3 are not yet available in China, so are the respective range in km.