Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

Competition hasn't figured out 2012 Model S.
Figuring out Battery Day ...

(AirBus just announced they are researching Hydrogen planes ...)

Airbus has already had two electric planes operating for a while and have been actively searching for plausible alternatives. Hydrogen is another one. Their constant R&D does sometimes produce major advances, like the first FBW airliner, the A320. Sometimes it does not. They are spending much more on battery innovation than they are on hydrogen:
New Airbus battery lab to push battery technology in Shenzhen

I'm not arguing that they'll be successful, only that they are trying.

 

[ZsoZso]

Competition hasn't figured out 2012 Model S.
Figuring out Battery Day ...

(AirBus just announced they are researching Hydrogen planes ...)

Duh, that was already figured out a century ago, maybe they should look up Hindenburg -- no, not that one, that's for Trevor to worry about, the other Hindenburg.

 

[mickle]

Regarding a new larger cell, I haven't seen anyone suggest that they could be mounted horizontally. It might not seem logical but they may have figured out a way to do this that makes sense. That would enable a lower profile battery pack for new designs, and the ability to retrofit a taller cell in the existing packs designed for 65 or 70mm height cells. Personally, I am still hopeful the new cell will be 42x69.

 

[StealthP3D]

For those of you keeping score......that was an MMD of 10x the IPO price. This stock is just taaaaaaaad volatile.

By that metric, MSFT is even more volatile! It has intra-day moves of over 100 times it's IPO price! This is the the result of the power of compounding. Expect it to move an even larger percentage of it's IPO price when it's trading in the thousands of $ per share again.
Edit: Odd formatting, don't know where it came from and I can't seem to delete it either.
Fairy Modfather: fixed for you. --ggr

 

[Chocochip]

Speaking of typical manipulations, here is the "buy the rumor, sell the news" manipulation explained really well by a long time TMCer Dave Lee:

To add: look out specifically for a “million-mile battery” being announced tomorrow. Regardless what else might be announced, and regardless how much more significant for the growth and profitability prospects of the company, we know that a lot of “professional investors” are waiting for that very specific news to come out. In the absence of that development, they will sell heavily and declare the event a flop. The only thing that would compensate would be something like Tesla announcing they’ve managed to halve the price per kWh. And that will again take a while to get processed, and then reported as “Tesla doubled the power of their cars” or something equally idiotic.

 

[Beltsbear]

Regarding a new larger cell, I haven't seen anyone suggest that they could be mounted horizontally. It might not seem logical but they may have figured out a way to do this that makes sense. That would enable a lower profile battery pack for new designs, and the ability to retrofit a taller cell in the existing packs designed for 65 or 70mm height cells. Personally, I am still hopeful the new cell will be 42x69.

If the cell is for existing vehicles, it will be 4970 or something close maintaining the 70mm height. If it is for the cybertruck and semi primarily it will be 5498 or something close. Both are possible. Sideways stacking makes little sense.

My thinking, Plaid will use a 4970 cell, and the extra 5mm will be made up for either in lost ride height or by a thinner rest of pack as it won't need modules. Plaid will probably beat the Lucid Air in terms of total battery capacity as well.

 

[dc_h]

It's not even funny anymore watching the whales bend this where they want. They tried it twice this morning, breaking down TSLA which was showing fair resilience during the overall macro situation

See how during the first two dips, TSLA didn't really follow the Qs dip. And TSLA was held back rising between these first two dips when the Qs took a mini hike.

But the third one is so much larger - they probably just hit all the stop loss orders that they wanted compared to the Qs

View attachment 590528

They pay good money to know where the stop losses are and drop some big bucks to hit them and buy back in after they force out the weak longs.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

They pay good money to know where the stop losses are and drop some big bucks to hit them and buy back in after they force out the weak longs.

The more I think about it, the more I think it's a very bullish sign that they wiped out stop losses today. To me, if they thought there was a decent chance of pulling the same stunt on Wednesday and being successful, they would have waited to do that bear raid.

Kinda tells me they expect to not able to do the same thing on Wed due to buying pressure and that they expect it to rally.

Just my take.

 

[mikevbf]

The Limiting Factor does an excellent job of clearly describing Tesla's larger cell form factor and it's implications as related to other advancements we are likely to se in tandem with the larger cell format:

 

[OrthoSurg]

To add: look out specifically for a “million-mile battery” being announced tomorrow. Regardless what else might be announced, and regardless how much more significant for the growth and profitability prospects of the company, we know that a lot of “professional investors” are waiting for that very specific news to come out. In the absence of that development, they will sell heavily and declare the event a flop. The only thing that would compensate would be something like Tesla announcing they’ve managed to halve the price per kWh. And that will again take a while to get processed, and then reported as “Tesla doubled the power of their cars” or something equally idiotic.

From what I understand, regardless of what is announced, there will be a sell the news phenomenon. The question is, will it be counterweight by new investors money.

 

[AudubonB]

Posting this here partly so that if I lose the back of the ProxyVote envelope I amassed this on, it still will exist in this so-easy-to-search-for location.....

California has 4.7 million pickups, 40 million residents, 11.5 million households
Texas: 4.2 million / 29 mm / 7.4 mm

Thus, given just one pickup per head or household, in -

CA: 11.7% of the population and 41% of households have pickups
TX: 14.9% of the population and 57% of households have pickups

That's a lot, right?

Not so fast -

We realized this morning that every single one of our acquaintances (households) has a pickup. Zero exceptions and that includes city-bound octogenarians. Hmm! So, boyz 'n grilz, here you go:

Within Alaska's 737,000 population and 221,600 households there are 205,057 pickups. That is:

AK: 27.8% of the population and 92.5% of households have pickups.

Let's summarize:

More Superchargers in CA, in TX, in FL....in the lower-48 are great. Good job with the build-out. But now, we NEED them.

Git 'er done, Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

My thinking, Plaid will use a 4970 cell, and the extra 5mm will be made up for either in lost ride height or by a thinner rest of pack as it won't need modules.

I think Plaid will use the same cell format as the non-Plaid version. It doesn't make a lot of sense to have two different form factors going into the same chassis. Because Tesla designs their vehicles to be very integrated and optimized and it's too expensive to adjust things just for the Plaid versions. For that reason I think Tesla will use the opportunity for a complete redesign.

The larger/taller form factor opens up the possibility of a Model S Plaid with up to 120 or 130 kWh capacity.

 

[StealthP3D]

From what I understand, regardless of what is announced, there will be a sell the news phenomenon. The question is, will it be counterweight by new investors money.

If the news is bullish enough, there is also the phenomenon of existing large shareholders doubling their positions. Many of them have lightened up already and others might just hear what they needed to increase their stake.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

From what I understand, regardless of what is announced, there will be a sell the news phenomenon. The question is, will it be counterweight by new investors money.

When the general consensus believes one thing, don't be surprised if the opposite happens

 

[UkNorthampton]

Replying to myself, some ways Tesla could unveil a Model '2' (Compact hatchback) worldwide with minimal Osborne effect / cannibalization of other models:

1. Introduce premium versions first, so that a premium Model 2 surpasses the cost of a base Model 3.
2. Decrease cost of base Model 3 to more closely approach the Model 2 price range (possible as the cost-savings techniques used to develop the 2 can trickle into the 3).
3. Nerf the Model 2. Minimum necessary range, to be improved via OTA over the years (this is a little sketchy, but perhaps there's an ethical hardware way of doing this).
4. Introduce a few more premium features to base Model 3 (trim, audio, entertainment, etc.)

Just thinking out loud. I just know if a $25,000 Model 2 came out that was as good as a Model 3 (sans storage space) it would be very compelling for a large % of the population. Would put them in a position where they'd need to scale more rapidly than ever before. A 2-year announcement-to-production tease could be detrimental to the business, given that the Model 2 could be an order of magnitude more popular than the 3.

Agree with others, will not happen on Battery Day.

I like 1 & 2. Rest not so much.

3 - not very ethical UNLESS non-premium cells such as lithium iron phosphate are used. Heavy and less dense but easy to source. Combine with single lower power motor (but that goes against 1)

4 - cost is less the advantage of Model 2 - it's the small size and hatchback. easier to produce the same kit as much as possible, especially with software control - less versions of car the better. FSD can be same price.

So, a golf/polo sized hatchback (with more internal room) powered by large-sized iron phosphate cells with a single motor might be easy/cheap to produce and furthers the mission. Keep reducing cost of Model 3 and Y also great. My real interest is in replacing heavily used vehicles like vans and lorries/HGVs though (semi in North America).

 

[Robocop]

From what I understand, regardless of what is announced, there will be a sell the news phenomenon. The question is, will it be counterweight by new investors money.

My hope is that Elon mixes some of the Semi/Roadster 2017 unveil energy into Battery Day. The Nueralink presentation (and Autonomy Day) are fundamentally more important, but it may require some pizzazz to get people to understand the value of Battery Day. If not? Then I guess we have another buying opportunity.

 

[lafrisbee]

Regarding a new larger cell, I haven't seen anyone suggest that they could be mounted horizontally. It might not seem logical but they may have figured out a way to do this that makes sense. That would enable a lower profile battery pack for new designs, and the ability to retrofit a taller cell in the existing packs designed for 65 or 70mm height cells. Personally, I am still hopeful the new cell will be 42x69.

mmmm?
I think you would like a 69x42 cell better because they add a zero to the cells' dimension for the model/part number?
So it would be 69420. That might be too out of line with the old method of giving cells a model number?
Any how...great idea for the model number.

 

[LTC_RRR]

All nickel should go toward battery production. You know what you need to do.

Brilliant! And I'm talking about the quip, not the shiny cajones.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

When the general consensus believes one thing, don't be surprised if the opposite happens

My two worst days from trading outside of my holding shares have been when close to the entire community here was expecting the stock to go up. Just a warning. This community is great for long time advice. Not always for very short time.

That said I'm bullish on battery day, but yeah, I'm worried that everyone else is too.

 

[Robocop]

My two worst days from trading outside of my holding shares have been when close to the entire community here was expecting the stock to go up. Just a warning. This community is great for long time advice. Not always for very short time.

That said I'm bullish on battery day, but yeah, I'm worried that everyone else is too.

I learned about options from this group. In 2017. When Tesla traded sideways for years. So yeah. Long term fantastic, short term = not so much. HODL, etc.