Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

OT: I stopped in my local Tesla store to check in with a couple of sales people I know there just to see how things are with latest news.
One (from whom I bought my X), had transferred to Service some time ago and was doing well there.
The other, when I asked about the store closing news had no idea yet how much the closings would affect this particular place which always seemed to have very good traffic and sales numbers.
She was accepting of the news, either way "He's on a mission. We all know that". The place was hopping on this rainy Sunday and this rep also added, "since the $35K announcement, people are coming out of the woodwork. For some reason getting to that price was a big deal to a lot of folks".
Again, it's sales people talk but I thought, worth noting.

I’m seeing a large crowd at my local Tesla store as well. Visited Saturday.

 

[sundaymorning]

Isn’t bmw suppose to be world class when it comes to service? Isn’t this why dealers are so special?

BMW EGR recall: owners spend months without cars while waiting for repairs

 

[Krugerrand]

@Fact Checking quoted the article Dec 7 so you didn't need to "read anything she writes" to be affected. The worm was planted in this garden.

Since its now clear that the report was false, people face cognitive dissonance having previously accepted the report. It's more comfortable to invent memories than to seek more information to resolve the conflict.

Simple to resolve: just show us a link where Elon said what you remember. Or much harder, admit that you were duped by a carefully crafted story. Take your time, have a good sleep or two. I'll check back next weekend.

@Mich Mich, Dec 7, 2018 "Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't? He didn't say they could pay cash, he said the are going to pay cash! What has changed?"

Artful Dodger, Dec 7, 2018 "Nothing, This is another B.S. story by Dana Hull. Notice that the story itself doesn't say a 50/50 split cash/shares, that's been added by 3rd parties reporting on her story."

Cheers, and have a great week!

I already stated I didn’t have a link, but that I thought I heard it in an ER. Q1? Q2? But maybe it was an interview?

When Elon finally said they’d pay it all in cash, which was BEFORE Dana wrote her article, I immediately said to myself, “He’s changed his mind from a possible mix of cash and stock to just cash.”

When people here started to question her article, I was scratching my head wondering why no one remembered his original statement from earlier in the year.

So unless someone else wrote an article (long before Dana and long before when I believe Elon mentioned it) to state a mix of cash and stock, then no, it’s not cognitive dissonance and I’m not inventing stuff.

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. The debt was paid off in cash and I still won’t be reading her articles. If I get a chance to waste a few hours of time, I’ll see if I can track it down so you can sleep at night.

 

[mrdoubleb]

There's also a non-trivial Autopilot and FSD income at 100% margins: according to surveys EAP take rate for Model S/3/X was north of 80% end of 2018.

This means that probably a significant percentage of "base model" sales also include a $5k AP sale - which immediately catapults the unit into the "highly profitable" group of cars.

I.e. introduction of the $35k car probably generated a lot of $40k sales with 20%+ margins.

I was thinking the same thing about the discount they announced for people who bought an AP 2 or 2.5 car but don't have AP or FSD.

On the surface it's a big discount, but in reality they will be pulling so much free cash with that! The only related cost is the HW3 replacement.

 

[anthonyj]

Isn’t bmw suppose to be world class when it comes to service? Isn’t this why dealers are so special?

BMW EGR recall: owners spend months without cars while waiting for repairs

I had a 2018 M2. Engine problems starting at 200 miles, then again at 6,000, then my electrical system wouldn’t shut off and on then my seats wouldn’t move back (that was the hardest to fix lol) and then to top it all off, they managed to curb all of my rims. Lemoned and got my money back.

I’ve had problems with my Tesla but at least they give me a comparable/better car instead of poopy 3 series.

 

[azaz]

More anecdotal evidence for the large crowds is a guy on reddit that said his store had sold 18 M3s all month and 45 in the two days since the announcement. Now get this, out of those 45 only 3 were SR/SR+.

He also says a lot of the people were return visitors to the store who were pushed over the edge by the price cut. That’s the type of person that I feel like closing the stores will make it less likely for them to buy. Hopefully they just get so many damn orders that they can keep most stores as galleries.
Tesla will close 15 stores tomorrow and an additional 30 on Monday : teslamotors

 

[Carl Raymond]

More anecdotal evidence for the large crowds is a guy on reddit that said his store had sold 18 M3s all month and 45 in the two days since the announcement. Now get this, out of those 45 only 3 were SR/SR+.

He also says a lot of the people were return visitors to the store who were pushed over the edge by the price cut. That’s the type of person that I feel like closing the stores will make it less likely for them to buy. Hopefully they just get so many damn orders that they can keep most stores as galleries.
Tesla will close 15 stores tomorrow and an additional 30 on Monday : teslamotors

But what we don't know (yet) is how many online orders have been placed since the SR release. Your anecdote may be the visible tip of the iceberg. Seems pretty likely.

 

[FS_FRA]

Don’t get too excited just yet. He might say they need to lay-off production workers, and that we will have to build the car ourselves. Like a build-a-bear workshop for adults

But will it come flat-packed? Tesla-Ikea anyone?

 

[Tslynk67]

No. He said March 15th. BIG DIFFERENCE.

Indeed - Ides of March he said, he's early...

 

[TradingInvest]

China is likely to further reduce tariff on Tesla's cars. I guess first step will drop to 5-10%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess the only point the shorts are going to have now is there will be no more vehicles for Tesla to announce after this year.

Don't forget the Tesla $25K car in 2-3 years. And the Tesla Bicycle.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well the $38.5k figure was suggested by Elon with the 10% different. $44k would be ~25% and that is not considering tax incentives may not be around by production time.

Elon said 10% more *for the same battery*. Their point was that it’s unlikely Tesla would bother making a Y with <200 mile range, which it likely would with an SR battery.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Indeed - Ides of March he said, he's early...

I’d just like to note that, unless the announcement is between midnight and 3am pacific time, it will be the Ides of March *somewhere*.

 

[Fact Checking]

I was thinking the same thing about the discount they announced for people who bought an AP 2 or 2.5 car but don't have AP or FSD.

On the surface it's a big discount, but in reality they will be pulling so much free cash with that! The only related cost is the HW3 replacement.

Yeah, and:

• It's also clearly a (well deserved) reward for early Tesla adopters,
• I'd expect old FSD "off menu" orders to get money back or get a separate reward,
• AND it fills up the pool of FSD testers.

Genial move which doesn't jeopardize future AP+FSD income.

 

[printf42]

Closer to BMW 4 series than 5 in terms of vehicle size

Not talking about exterior sizes, ICE cars has long nose to house the engine, EV doesn’t, talking about usable interior space is the correct way to compares size of ICE vs EV.

 

[Mobius484]

Maybe one of the changes to the s/x packs is with better chemistry they are able to use less cells, like in the MR pack, aside from efficiency improvements from less weight, the cooling issues may be better/easier to solve without total redisign to a super bottle model....

I think the everybody wants a base model thing is a myth. When people see the difference in a loan payment for a few grand spread out over 4-6 yrs is small, they met opt for bigger battery. This is a generation that thinks not twice about buying 5$ coffee and avacado toast... no offense millenials...

 

[mrdoubleb]

Not sure if it was posted here, but apparently the same guy (or gal) who posted the 15 stores will close story on Reddit over the weekend got burned really bad.
The more frivolous part of his post was that his insider sources tell him Tesla is closer to bankruptcy than ever before. I think he also claimed to be an employee to be cut from sales force.

In any case he posted over the weekend that Model Y has been put on hold indefinitely as Tesla doesn't have the money to continue the program. Luckily someone tok a screenshot.

Wow this FUDster must feel really dumb right now.
Possibly the shorted lived FUD in history : teslamotors

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon said 10% more *for the same battery*. Their point was that it’s unlikely Tesla would bother making a Y with <200 mile range, which it likely would with an SR battery.

I think with ~5% battery tech improvements per year they can promise ~200 miles standard range today and deliver it by 2020-2021.

IMHO it will be absolutely critical to bring the Model Y entry price to $39,999 or below in the U.S., for price psychology reasons.

My guess is $38,500 entry price, which is exactly 10% above the $35,000 Model 3 entry price. But maybe they'll communicate a $40,000 base price initially and keep a $38.5k an internal target. (Or maybe I'm wrong. )

 

[mblakele]

Tesla & The SEC: It's Complicated, And Awful | CleanTechnica

 

[ls7corvete]

But what we don't know (yet) is how many online orders have been placed since the SR release. Your anecdote may be the visible tip of the iceberg. Seems pretty likely.

Makes sense to me, I cant imagine going to order the 35k and not being tempted by higher optioned vehicles. Its up selling, without the sales person, pressure or advertising.