Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

I was in Romania last fall. Everyone I talked to had heard of Tesla even though I didn’t see one.

Makes sense, even I have heard of Dracula

 

[Antares Nebula]

Supercharger V3 could be interesting news since Tesla had indicated they had a way to lower deployment costs. "Fueling" infrastructure is the only big hole in Tesla's plan so far and this may fill that gap. They could easily double the size of their current deployment along highways in the US to reduce range anxiety.

Bear in mind that faster and faster superchargers requires relatively less superchargers (still need more than today) since chargers will be freed up more quickly given the faster charge times.

 

[Fred42]

But what is the reason for Model Y reveal, at all ? I actually don't see any strong reason for revealing it more than 2 months before delivery.
- Fear of details leaking
- Deposits
- Boost SP
- ?

'We're here, we're staying here, and we have a bright future (even though we just announced we're closing our stores and cutting our prices) so go to your computer and order that Model 3 you know you want (even though some unhelpful person is telling you there won't be anyplace to get the car repaired and the warranty will be useless when Tesla goes under).'

 

[scaesare]

Not really, I have not measured, but judging from some dimension drawings I got, Model 3 and BMW 5 have roughly the same distance from steering wheel to rear seat back. Translates to probably about the same interior space, which would be noticeably larger than BMW 3 series.

Also BMW 3 series doesn’t have double wishbone front suspension which both Model 3 and 5 series have.

In my opinion, Model 3 is comparable to BMW 5 series and Benz E series. Which is probably why Elon wants to name it Model E in the beginning(before being shot down by Ford who owns the trademark)

Btw, any 5 and 3 series owner here mind to massure that distance?
Model 3 measures from 61 to 63.5 inch depending on steering wheel position adjustment.
(I measured from the top of the steering wheel to the seat back of the rear, around shoulder height)

Closer to BMW 4 series than 5 in terms of vehicle size

 

[MP3Mike]

Q. So 200 to start and maybe 250 with liquid cables ?

• A. No, I was told just a flat 200. That said, 200 at 400v is faster than the Taycans 350 at 800v"

Well from that we know they don't understand Power...

 

[S3XY]

But what is the reason for Model Y reveal, at all ? I actually don't see any strong reason for revealing it more than 2 months before delivery.
- Fear of details leaking
- Deposits
- Boost SP
- ?

The reveal determines demand which determines ramp which determines the number of production lines required which determines the production equipment order which has a lead time to manufacture, deliver and install. You can't squeeze all of that lead time into 2 months. Not to mention the other things they need to plan for based on the demand such as the number/size of Supercharger and Service Center locations.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Some interesting Supercharger V3 comments on reddit. No idea if its accurate but seems mostly plausible. 20% to 80% charge in 13-15 minutes for Model 3 would be an extremely significant development in my opinion.

Apparently they were told by a friend who works at Tesla.
Source: u/NetBrown

• "200kW is correct.
• All Model 3 battery chemistry will be able to handle this.
• Total redesign from the current v2, which uses repurposed vehicle chargers. V3 is done from start using industrial inverters based from Power Packs.
• Ideally meant for long distance only, will be deployed in far out places to bridge gaps (Forks,WA will be one of the first places in the NW completed).
• Initially will not have liquid cooled cables in early release, but all v3 will eventually have liquid cables."

Q. Source?

• A: You won't like it, but a friend who works there. We will all see if I (or rather he/she) was lying to me in a couple of days.
• Also: Cars which can not use full rate will still be able to SC at these, just will take longer.
• Suspicion of mine: firmware update in late march will enable not just the 5%power increase but also have v3 support in it

Q. What would be the equivalent in mi/hr roughly?

• A: At full power? Not sure, but supposedly the taper will be different too. Target charge time is to cut the prime 20-80 zone in half in terms of time
• Well half the timeframe for this on a 3 (which supports the full 200kW speed) would still be about 13-15 min. Definitely faster, but not quite a gas fill up yet.

Q. How would it possibly cut the time in half?

• A. Partly by increasing power, partly by adjusting the charging curve.
  
• Not all chemistry can handle it, and SC v2 was put out before several changes in chemistry were made. This upgrade should allow newer cars to do a more aggressive charging curve without cell degradation.

Q. So 200 to start and maybe 250 with liquid cables ?

• A. No, I was told just a flat 200. That said, 200 at 400v is faster than the Taycans 350 at 800v"

More info posted:

NetBrown

"I asked some more details since there was more interest about the details.

• The liquid cables will actually be much thinner than the current SC cables, the coolant pump is located in the base of the SC (v3 can retrofit into existing v2 chargers), and while the cabinets can support 250kW max (so I suppose it would be possible to upgrade to 250kW in the future), the individual chargers will be max 200kW.
• PV and Power Pack integration is a part of the design spec, but no required.
• 40% better throughput performance compared to v2 per site
• Thermal Foldback improvements over v2
• v3 cabinets get 5 power stages at 70kW output per power stage for 350kW AC -> DC per v3 cabinet
• v3 cabinet also houses 2x DC-DC modules per post yielding 100kWx2 for the 200kW deliverer per post
• Any extra power (assuming the extra 50kW the cabinets can produce versus what the chargers are delivering if the cabinet is maxed, or if only partially maxed, any extra power) can be shared across cabinets. Since multiple cabinets will be at each site, this lessens if not removes the v2 "shared" power with linked chargers
• Site master controller is 4G LTE for communication of all diagnostics (as well as the verify car and billing of power consumed) so better knowledge when a site has a problem - leading to more proactive fixing of sites with broken/malfunctioning chargers
• The cost reduction will come from higher power conversion efficiency (96% for v3 versus 92% for v2), less harmonics, and no overvoltage sensitivity (though the cabinets are larger and heavier than v2), ultimately leading to an approximate 20% more customers served per dollar spent on power
• Overall AC input is 438kVA, 526A
  • Can link up to 7 v3 cabinets per bus (or a block), which can also link to one Power Pack
  • Cabinets are on a shared DC radial configured bus of 880-1000
  • This is then pushed out to the chargers (posts) and DC 180-500v, 250kW max"

 

[RFernatt]

Closer to BMW 4 series than 5 in terms of vehicle size

I expect Nissan Rogue sized. It is/was (haven't checked lately) the best selling vehicle behind the full size pickups and I can vouch for it being right sized for the class.

 

[scaesare]

I expect Nissan Rogue sized. It is/was (haven't checked lately) the best selling vehicle behind the full size pickups and I can vouch for it being right sized for the class.

My reply was in response to what the Model 3 compares to, not speculating on the size of the Y.

 

[GOVA]

Y will be 10% bigger than Model 3. Is that good enough?

 

[scaesare]

Well from that we know they don't understand Power...

Unless:

-They were speaking about range added within that specific portion of the curve

-They were addressing the actual power delivered in that portion of the curve when accounting for differing tapers between the two cars

-They were alluding to the Taycan being able to charge on a 350kW charger, but not being able to draw anywhere near the max

 

[Antares Nebula]

'We're here, we're staying here, and we have a bright future (even though we just announced we're closing our stores and cutting our prices) so go to your computer and order that Model 3 you know you want (even though some unhelpful person is telling you there won't be anyplace to get the car repaired and the warranty will be useless when Tesla goes under).'

This is a very good point. I was wondering myself. Squashes the bankruptcy rumors. Same thing with Supercharger V3 and Maxwell acquisition. Would they be doing all this if things were dire?

 

[Mokuzai]

The “one more thing” that I’d hope for is “oh, btw deliveries start tomorrow”.

 

[AcesDealt]

Some interesting Supercharger V3 comments on reddit. No idea if its accurate but seems mostly plausible. 20% to 80% charge in 13-15 minutes for Model 3 would be an extremely significant development in my opinion.

Apparently they were told by a friend who works at Tesla.
Source: u/NetBrown

• "200kW is correct.
• All Model 3 battery chemistry will be able to handle this.
• Total redesign from the current v2, which uses repurposed vehicle chargers. V3 is done from start using industrial inverters based from Power Packs.
• Ideally meant for long distance only, will be deployed in far out places to bridge gaps (Forks,WA will be one of the first places in the NW completed).
• Initially will not have liquid cooled cables in early release, but all v3 will eventually have liquid cables."

Q. Source?

• A: You won't like it, but a friend who works there. We will all see if I (or rather he/she) was lying to me in a couple of days.
• Also: Cars which can not use full rate will still be able to SC at these, just will take longer.
• Suspicion of mine: firmware update in late march will enable not just the 5%power increase but also have v3 support in it

Q. What would be the equivalent in mi/hr roughly?

• A: At full power? Not sure, but supposedly the taper will be different too. Target charge time is to cut the prime 20-80 zone in half in terms of time
• Well half the timeframe for this on a 3 (which supports the full 200kW speed) would still be about 13-15 min. Definitely faster, but not quite a gas fill up yet.

Q. How would it possibly cut the time in half?

• A. Partly by increasing power, partly by adjusting the charging curve.
  
• Not all chemistry can handle it, and SC v2 was put out before several changes in chemistry were made. This upgrade should allow newer cars to do a more aggressive charging curve without cell degradation.

Q. So 200 to start and maybe 250 with liquid cables ?

• A. No, I was told just a flat 200. That said, 200 at 400v is faster than the Taycans 350 at 800v"

I'm curious if they will also discuss bundling powerpacks with these.

 

[AcesDealt]

But what is the reason for Model Y reveal, at all ? I actually don't see any strong reason for revealing it more than 2 months before delivery.
- Fear of details leaking
- Deposits
- Boost SP
- ?

I think a significant reason is it stops people from buying competitor SUV in the meantime. People often start planning quite a bit ahead.

 

[Zaxxon]

• Any extra power (assuming the extra 50kW the cabinets can produce versus what the chargers are delivering if the cabinet is maxed, or if only partially maxed, any extra power) can be shared across cabinets.

This is actually a very important improvement, IMO. While increased max power and better taper curves are cool, the overall charge time under ideal circumstances with v2 is already not really a problem for the vast majority of stops--if you're getting a meal, having your whole family take bio breaks and stretch, etc, current speeds are more or less fine. The bigger issue currently, I'd argue, is the too-frequent need to play stall roulette at crowded stations.

If they're improving the 20-80% charge time by anything close to half *and* ensuring that any stall you pull into will always be able to supply that max power, then IMO Supercharging is effectively a solved problem.

Yes, over time it'll be nice to reach a state where EVs can be filled in five minutes or whatever, but a near-halving of the current charge time means that the vast majority of road-tripping use cases will complete charging as fast or faster than the traveler really requires.

 

[MartinAustin]

Closer to BMW 4 series than 5 in terms of vehicle size

I'm assuming the vehicle Tesla have in their sights the most, if there is such a thing, would be the Porsche Macan.

The Macan has become one of Porsche's biggest-selling products and I bet they are not looking forward to this reveal. (or the Model Y itself, of course)

Enough talk of Tesla killers... the Model Y is a Macan-killer.

 

[CaliBear1]

This is the inflection point for both Tesla AND TSLA!

The more I think about the timing of the Y reveal, the more I think it demonstrates Tesla/EM genius. The release of the long-promised $35k Model 3 fulfills a vital promise and sets the stage for widespread adoption of EVs at the key Camry/Accord price point. But, I would not be surprised if the current adoption rate has plateaued. By introducing the Y to address the fastest growing and strongest vehicle segment in North America (and Europe?), the demand will be immense and, for the purposes of my point here, allow the 3 the time to further penetrate the broader sedan segment market as word of its prowess spreads...like an avalanche picking up momentum. All without hurting Tesla's bottom line of rapid growth since the Y will more than pick up any slack.

The bottom line is that the timing of these reveals suggests Tesla has shifted to a strategy of rapidly capturing massive market share while legacy companies continue to drag their feet in a delaying action or struggle to pivot. As others far wiser than I have pointed out, Elon hoped the other car companies would embrace the change and the mission. But, their resistance has left EM no option but to push the "KILL" button!

Honestly, I love The Mission. But, it lets that little voice in my head whispering "a great product does not always equal a great
stock" stir fear in me about the wisdom of holding over a thousand shares of TSLA. But the announcement of the Y reveal so soon on the heels of the $35K Model 3 tells me THIS is the inflection point for Tesla AND TSLA. And I bet Model Y production will ramp up much quicker than anyone realizes since it shares so much in common with the 3 and will be the vehicle that drives the stake in the heart of the internal combustion engine. And this will become clear to all in less than two years.

 

[RobStark]

I guess the only point the shorts are going to have now is there will be no more vehicles for Tesla to announce after this year. If Elon can't get the fan boys to hype/buy the stock up after a reveal every now and then Tesla is surely going to go bankwupt.

and here comes the Tesla minivan.... LOL

Nope, it is going to be a full sized SUV based on the pickup.

 

[EVNow]

This is a very good point. I was wondering myself. Squashes the bankruptcy rumors. Same thing with Supercharger V3 and Maxwell acquisition. Would they be doing all this if things were dire?

People who are on the bankruptcy train are not going to come off that easily. Anything and everything can be called a fraud/lie. Ofcourse, the fence sitter / casual observer can possibly be swayed and that matters.