Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustAaronnoraA]

Given the lowered range from the SUV format I think they won't offer any battery smaller than the 3's MR for the Y because it would be too short a range for the Tesla brand. Therefore starting price will be $44k.

Well the $38.5k figure was suggested by Elon with the 10% different. $44k would be ~25% and that is not considering tax incentives may not be around by production time.

 

[geometro]

The model 3 SR announcement makes much more sense now.

Previously, Elon had said mid-March for the Model Y announcement. I can only imagine how pissed people would be if he announced the Model Y without having a timetable for the $35k Model 3 (or putting it on sale).
Announcing the $35k model 3 last week allowed him just enough time to announce the Model Y reveal and still hit the mid-March timing.

I’m not used to him working on anything other than Elon-time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nope. I’m positive he said it long before she put it into words because 1) I remarked to myself - oh, he’s changed his mind and 2) I don’t read anything she writes, so I didn’t get it from her.

@Fact Checking quoted the article Dec 7 so you didn't need to "read anything she writes" to be affected. The worm was planted in this garden.

Since its now clear that the report was false, people face cognitive dissonance having previously accepted the report. It's more comfortable to invent memories than to seek more information to resolve the conflict.

Simple to resolve: just show us a link where Elon said what you remember. Or much harder, admit that you were duped by a carefully crafted story. Take your time, have a good sleep or two. I'll check back next weekend.

@Mich Mich, Dec 7, 2018 "Why, just why does Elon say they are paying cash if they don't? He didn't say they could pay cash, he said the are going to pay cash! What has changed?"

Artful Dodger, Dec 7, 2018 "Nothing, This is another B.S. story by Dana Hull. Notice that the story itself doesn't say a 50/50 split cash/shares, that's been added by 3rd parties reporting on her story."

Cheers, and have a great week!

 

[Sancho]

Wow, gotta love Musk’s aggressiveness. The 35k EV was the realization of a decade long goal. It’s a historic achievement. You would think that Tesla would now focus for the next several months on building awareness and demand for the 35k M3.

But no. Mere days after launching the 35k M3, Tesla upstages it with announcement of the MY.

Buckle your seatbelts. Things are about to accelerate.

 

[Zaxxon]

Wow, gotta love Musk’s aggressiveness. The 35k EV was the realization of a decade long goal. It’s a historic achievement. You would think that Tesla would now focus for the next several months on building awareness and demand for the 35k M3.

But no. Mere days after launching the 35k M3, Tesla upstages it with announcement of the MY.

Buckle your seatbelts. Things are about to accelerate.

The more I think about the timing, the more I like it. They couldn't credibly unveil the Y until they had started selling the $35k 3 since that was a promise not yet fulfilled. But now that they're making the $35k 3, why wait?

The mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport, and the next step there is getting the Y going. Unveiling it and getting a gauge on initial demand via reservations is the next logical step assuming they are pencils down on the design (which they are per a prior conf call).

 

[EVNow]

I expect Nissan Rogue sized. It is/was (haven't checked lately) the best selling vehicle behind the full size pickups and I can vouch for it being right sized for the class.

Yes it is, when you add Rogue & Rogue Sports/Qashqai - together they sell more than Ford F series, nearly 1.4M globally.

 

[RobStark]

Given the lowered range from the SUV format I think they won't offer any battery smaller than the 3's MR for the Y because it would be too short a range for the Tesla brand. Therefore starting price will be $44k.

I figured Model 3 Standard+ would be the Model Y's base pack.

If they don't release til Q1 2021 then Model Y Standard+ could definitely have 220 miles of range while Model 3 Standard+ has 245.

 

[geometro]

I figured Model 3 Standard+ would be the Model Y's base pack.

If they don't release til Q1 2021 then Model Y Standard+ could definitely have 220 miles of range while Model 3 Standard+ has 245.

I still think this will require dual motor set up so won’t be offered with the smaller batteries. This is similar to the S/X approach.

 

[Foghat]

Again, we can’t sleep on Tesla Energy. I think the product line up here is spectacular as well.

The home is next frontier for Tesla and the skies the limit, much bigger then vehicle market.

Solar roof or retrofit panels. Powerwalls and power packs. Tesla vehicle chargers. *Electric heating and cooling.*

But the key to it all is software. Not just energy management, but data to the consumer on usage, as well as the ability to sell excess on the open market as “grid services” and beyond.

Like I’ve said before, tesla as a company has the potential to transform much of our energy production and consumption into a diversified, distributed prosumer centric economic system.

Production constrained is an understatement. Anyone who actually thinks demand might be an issue for any of this has their head in the tar sands.

 

[printf42]

Model Y is a known quantity with 75% parts of Model 3 so there's not much news to trade on. It will rise a little up to 3/14 then drop.

Wait for them to say China GF3 will produce Model Y from day one.

 

[RobStark]

I expect Nissan Rogue sized. It is/was (haven't checked lately) the best selling vehicle behind the full size pickups and I can vouch for it being right sized for the class.

 

[rypalmer]

More info posted:

NetBrown

"I asked some more details since there was more interest about the details.

• The liquid cables will actually be much thinner than the current SC cables, the coolant pump is located in the base of the SC (v3 can retrofit into existing v2 chargers), and while the cabinets can support 250kW max (so I suppose it would be possible to upgrade to 250kW in the future), the individual chargers will be max 200kW.
• PV and Power Pack integration is a part of the design spec, but no required.
• 40% better throughput performance compared to v2 per site
• Thermal Foldback improvements over v2
• v3 cabinets get 5 power stages at 70kW output per power stage for 350kW AC -> DC per v3 cabinet
• v3 cabinet also houses 2x DC-DC modules per post yielding 100kWx2 for the 200kW deliverer per post
• Any extra power (assuming the extra 50kW the cabinets can produce versus what the chargers are delivering if the cabinet is maxed, or if only partially maxed, any extra power) can be shared across cabinets. Since multiple cabinets will be at each site, this lessens if not removes the v2 "shared" power with linked chargers
• Site master controller is 4G LTE for communication of all diagnostics (as well as the verify car and billing of power consumed) so better knowledge when a site has a problem - leading to more proactive fixing of sites with broken/malfunctioning chargers
• The cost reduction will come from higher power conversion efficiency (96% for v3 versus 92% for v2), less harmonics, and no overvoltage sensitivity (though the cabinets are larger and heavier than v2), ultimately leading to an approximate 20% more customers served per dollar spent on power
• Overall AC input is 438kVA, 526A
  • Can link up to 7 v3 cabinets per bus (or a block), which can also link to one Power Pack
  • Cabinets are on a shared DC radial configured bus of 880-1000
  • This is then pushed out to the chargers (posts) and DC 180-500v, 250kW max"

Beautiful. Combine with solar or storage and it's just DC-to-DC on the bus. Presumably matches PowerPack power station architecture very closely, which by now is proven.

 

[RobStark]

I'm assuming the vehicle Tesla have in their sights the most, if there is such a thing, would be the Porsche Macan.

The Macan has become one of Porsche's biggest-selling products and I bet they are not looking forward to this reveal. (or the Model Y itself, of course)

Enough talk of Tesla killers... the Model Y is a Macan-killer.

It IS their biggest seller.

Porsche employees refer to the Macan as the Rent-Payer.

 

[RobStark]

I still think this will require dual motor set up so won’t be offered with the smaller batteries. This is similar to the S/X approach.

Tesla plans top out at 50k Model X per year while they are hoping for 1M plus Model Y.

This basically requires a rear wheel drive single motor with ~220 miles of range.

 

[MartinAustin]

The model 3 SR announcement makes much more sense now.

Previously, Elon had said mid-March for the Model Y announcement. I can only imagine how pissed people would be if he announced the Model Y without having a timetable for the $35k Model 3 (or putting it on sale).
Announcing the $35k model 3 last week allowed him just enough time to announce the Model Y reveal and still hit the mid-March timing.

How about this... invite buyers of the first SR Model 3's off the line to the Model Y reveal event and deliver them at the beginning of the event? (would require some coordination of course)

Not sure if it's good to mix up the focus like that... just an idea

 

[EVNow]

I still think this will require dual motor set up so won’t be offered with the smaller batteries. This is similar to the S/X approach.

I think they will only announce MR as the lowest trim - about $45k. That way anyone looking to pay under 40k will just buy a 3 now.

 

[Fact Checking]

@Fact Checking quoted the article Dec 7 so you didn't need to "read anything she writes" to be affected. The worm was planted in this garden.

Since its now clear that the report was false,

Why would it be "clear" that Dana's early December report that Tesla offered 50%/50% stock/cash split to convertible note holders in case of conversion was "false"?

The 50%/50% cash/stock split would only have happened had there been a conversion event, which required the stock price to be above $360 for much of February.

That obviously didn't happen, so paying back 100% cash was the mandatory outcome at the default conversion ratio, as none of the note holders chose conversion.

So I don't know on what basis you are calling Dana's report false. I still maintain that it was likely true, for the various direct and circumstantial reasons outlined in the comment you linked to. I believe @brian45011 made similar arguments.

 

[sundaymorning]

The model 3 SR announcement makes much more sense now.

Previously, Elon had said mid-March for the Model Y announcement. I can only imagine how pissed people would be if he announced the Model Y without having a timetable for the $35k Model 3 (or putting it on sale).
Announcing the $35k model 3 last week allowed him just enough time to announce the Model Y reveal and still hit the mid-March timing.

I’m not used to him working on anything other than Elon-time.

Without the long waited delivery of the $35k model 3, shorts will be all over MY reveal. Although shorts won’t ever shut up, this will likely demoralize many shorts.

 

[sundaymorning]

BMW doesn’t need to crash to catch fire, just let it sit and wait for the firework.

BMW Car Fires: More fires reported in parked cars while engines off

Things are getting bad for this brand.

BMW Death traps:

BMW death traps as 250,000 cars in Britain are at risk of bursting into flames | Daily Mail Online

• Fault affects 1.6m cars worldwide - it can cause flammable coolant to leak on to burning hot exhaust system near engine, potentially triggering a fire
• German car giant accused of failing to act quickly enough on threat and is facing criminal investigation in South Korea over delays
• BMW already faces claims it was slow to recall almost 300,000 cars last year due to separate fault in air con system which may cause them to catch fire
• New row centres on 'exhaust gas recirculation' cooler - designed to reduce emissions - and affects 12 BMW models

You mean BMW doesn’t have over the air upgrades to fix this?

Grenfell firefighter's BMW bursts into flames during drive home from school | Daily Mail Online

Do they come from the same oven? Hyundai now?

Hyundai, Kia recall more than 500K vehicles as fire risk spreads

 

[Sparky]

OT: I stopped in my local Tesla store to check in with a couple of sales people I know there just to see how things are with latest news.
One (from whom I bought my X), had transferred to Service some time ago and was doing well there.
The other, when I asked about the store closing news had no idea yet how much the closings would affect this particular place which always seemed to have very good traffic and sales numbers.
She was accepting of the news, either way "He's on a mission. We all know that". The place was hopping on this rainy Sunday and this rep also added, "since the $35K announcement, people are coming out of the woodwork. For some reason getting to that price was a big deal to a lot of folks".
Again, it's sales people talk but I thought, worth noting.