Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

"200 KW is faster at 400v than 350 KW at 800v" <= this guy does not know what he's talking about. What else did he misinterpret?

Totally unreliable source. Dubious claim discounted.

500 amps > 437.5 amps so a higher flow of electrons

 

[TheTalkingMule]

One consequence if this is accurate: Model 3 Long Range RWD charge time would beat Porsche Taycan.

Taycan is reported to be 310 miles NEDC (likely c.225 mile EPA), $85k base price and c.250 NEDC miles charge in 15 minutes from their 350kW/ 800V future chargers.

No need to beat these Porsche stats because the batteries required literally don't exist

 

[jerry33]

Don't forget about I-40 through Arkansas/Oklahoma.

I was being kind of selfish

 

[scaesare]

Not talking about exterior sizes, ICE cars has long nose to house the engine, EV doesn’t, talking about usable interior space is the correct way to compares size of ICE vs EV.

Generally classes of cars are compared on exterior dimensions and/or wheelbase.

If packaging allows he interior of one design to be more room than another, than so be it.... that's an advantage.

But very few people/reviews compare cars based on distance from steering wheel to seat, or from seat to seat. Otherwise you might be comparing a minivan to a sedan if they both happen to have a front seat that's 22 inches from the steering wheel.

As for the "long nose" argument, that doesn't make sense either. There are ICE cars with longitudinal engines, and ones with transverse. Some even rear engine, so there's significant variability even within a class. You'll find that there are not clases of "cars with hoods from 3 to 4 feet", but rather "sedans with wheelbases from 110-118 inches" type of thing.

 

[bhtooefr]

I fully expect an exact parallel. They share common hardware and will share configs, with the Y versions being ~10% more expensive. Just like S and X, except 3 and Y are even more structurally similar.

Worth noting that the Model X never had RWD models available, even as the Model S still had them. I don't know how that would map to smaller luxury market CUVs (straddling X3/X5, Q3/Q5, Macan/Cayenne, GLC/GLE, and NX/RX) - there are some 2WD models at the lower ends of those, but...

Yes it is, when you add Rogue & Rogue Sports/Qashqai - together they sell more than Ford F series, nearly 1.4M globally.

Worth noting that the Rogue sales figures for the US market include the Rogue Sport.

 

[Kuhz]

S3 Partners: Longs, Not Shorts, Are Selling Tesla

“Tesla short sellers netted $660 million in profits on Friday morning and are collectively up more than $1 billion so far in 2019 after losing about $1.4 billion in 2018, Dusaniwsky said.”

So they were up less than 500mil collectively before Friday’s drop but lost 3x that last year. It’s only March......

 

[VValleyEV]

Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

I am starting to agree. Take some of that money from scaling back retail stores and craft a few educational ads for national audiences. I have a lot of friends with plenty of resources to buy an EV but with simply no idea about them or what Tesla has to offer, and what little they know is negative.

But wait, Tesla already has a nice collection of little video pieces on their own YouTube channel. Maybe all they need is more of those, plus a small series of ads with a push to “Find us on YouTube, and learn about our products for today and tomorrow”.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My guess on the S/X price reductions is indeed that they are a precursor to a model refresh. In particular, we have evidence that the chemistry of the 2170 cells is superior than that of the 18650 (can accept a faster charge rate and/or the pack cooling in the Model 3 is more robust). With the V3 SC announcement and the fact that Tesla just just renegotiated their 18650 cell supply contract, I think this all points to a refreshed S/X with better cell chemistry 18650 cells and/or a redesigned battery pack with more robust cooling.

 

[KarenRei]

Market is open. I stand on the duck.

 

[Krugerrand]

More anecdotal evidence for the large crowds is a guy on reddit that said his store had sold 18 M3s all month and 45 in the two days since the announcement. Now get this, out of those 45 only 3 were SR/SR+.

He also says a lot of the people were return visitors to the store who were pushed over the edge by the price cut. That’s the type of person that I feel like closing the stores will make it less likely for them to buy. Hopefully they just get so many damn orders that they can keep most stores as galleries.
Tesla will close 15 stores tomorrow and an additional 30 on Monday : teslamotors

Please, stop with the fretting about something that might or might not be. It’s like an old woman trying a new hairdresser and wringing her hands worrying her hair might turn orange instead of blue.

Nothing at Tesla is static. If they start to see an issue with closing stores they’ll just switch their approach, again. Yes. Yes, they will. And just as quickly has they changed this time around.

I can’t believe that otherwise intelligent people have to be explained this stuff. It’s all just, WOW. And, every bloody single time Tesla does something new or different, it’s the same people hand wringing and predicting doom. They can’t even learn from past mistakes. I’m reminded why the human race disappoints me time and time again.

 

[PANN]

I speculate Model S/X refresh could be the "one more thing" on Model Y unveil. The huge price drop on Model S/X is to sell out all inventory.

 

[MP3Mike]

My hypothesis is that all available March Model 3 production and most of inventory got ordered already by the time Elon tweeted the Model Y reveal.

He'd not risk Osborning Q1 Model 3 sales without having a firm idea about SR and SR+ induced sales.

I'm not so sure about that, all of those orders can be cancelled at no penalty until they take delivery. I would guess that some of them are already thinking about cancelling, but are probably going to wait until after the Model Y reveal.

 

[dc_h]

It may have been noted and may not be a representation for the rest of Europe, but Norway has registered 78 cars today (so far) and 194 on the 3rd day of the month. There are 26 sales days in Norway, assuming no holidays. Today's numbers include 9 S and 5 X. It is currently 3:40pm in Oslo, so we should power past 200 sales for March today.

Update, now at 96 cars today at 3:40 and 212 for March.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not so sure about that, all of those orders can be cancelled at no penalty until they take delivery. I would guess that some of them are already thinking about cancelling, but are probably going to wait until after the Model Y reveal.

If you are in the market to purchase a car in the next three months, you are not going to wait another year or year and a half. I don't see much risk here other than the people who weren't serious about it in the first place. I suspect some people put their money down more to help Tesla than to actually get a car.

 

[replicant]

Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

I totally agree that Average Joe does not know -much- about Tesla and their cars but the reason is *not* the lack of advertising but advertising itself: most media editors keep bashing Tesla because Tesla don't buy advertising. It is racketeering, and I speak as a marketing professional.

 

[AlexS]

So sad to see when there is party in the market we can't participate. Can we somehow reinstate Jürvetson on the board, he is strong in sales and marketing, maybe he can bring back test drives. And we can join the party.

 

[JRP3]

Aaand we are red

 

[elasalle]

Red .. What the Fusk?

 

[ZachF]

I'm reminded of a great comment I saw on youtube somewhere, "Shorting Tesla is shorting America." Never have I been so proud of an American company. Tragic how our own media has so lost it's way from presenting fair and balanced coverage of anything at all. The whole country should be experiencing goosebumps today.

America builds the best Electric cars in the world. The fact that we aren't taking this and running infuriates me.

People talk about making America great again and reducing our trade deficit, here's how to do it! We import $100 billion in oil every year. We produce 12 million motor vehicles against sales of 17.5 million.

17.5-12 = 5.5. 5.5 x $35,000 = $192 billion.

That's ~$300 billion of our ~$500 billion trade deficit.... ICE automobiles and oil.

Now, what if we became the "Germany" of electric cars, producing the worlds top-quality electric cars? we could get rid of the tradedeficit all together.

But no... more coal, brodozers, and failure...

 

[jerry33]

Red .. What the Fusk?

Remember, all the talking heads spin this as eminent doom. If it gets low enough, I do have a bit more powder to burn.