Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

VW was smart to not start at the top of the market but right below Tesla.

That was smart to bring the VW id3 in at a price point just under Tesla.

Because then you're dealing with a slightly lower IQ customer who pines for a Tesla but can only afford an id3.

This will prove to be penny wise but pound foolish when it comes time to sell it. And it will create a lot of future Tesla buyers.

 

[kanweg]

That was smart to bring the VW id3 in at a price point just under Tesla.

Because then you're dealing with a slightly lower IQ customer who pines for a Tesla but can only afford an id3.

This will prove to be penny wise but pound foolish when it comes time to sell it. And it will create a lot of future Tesla buyers.

The second hand market is yet to develop. There will be plenty of demand for ID3s in 3-5 years (it is not like they are Leafs with a built in time bomb of a bad case of the batteries). Private people buy mostly second hand cars here, except for the cheapest cars.

But yes, demand for Tesla’s will be strong. In Europe, people have way more days of holiday, and they travel to other countries. Range is important then.

 

[StealthP3D]

That's easy, Tesla trying to figure out a way to introduce a $25K car and not torpedo the higher margin 3 and Y sales.

That would be it if the $25,000 car is a Model 3 with a lower cost of manufacture. But I think it will be a smaller car (the Model 3 is surprisingly roomy). Tesla doesn't want to make a $25,000 car that has a short range. The cost of manufacture is not low enough yet to bring out a long-range 25K EV. Most of what it will take is the existing technology of tab-less batteries being mass produced and a cast aluminum lower chassis.

Tesla is smart about this. Even though most people only need less than 50 miles on a daily basis, a car with only a 180-220 mile range greatly reduces the versatility, longevity and convenience of the vehicle compared to ICE vehicles (and thus it's value).

 

[StealthP3D]

The second hand market is yet to develop. There will be plenty of demand for ID3s in 3-5 years (it is not like they are Leafs with a built in time bomb of a bad case of the batteries). Private people buy mostly second hand cars here, except for the cheapest cars.

But yes, demand for Tesla’s will be strong. In Europe, people have way more days of holiday, and they travel to other countries. Range is important then.

Demand is always there, for any car, at the right price. I'm addressing the percent of value retained. So far, no other mass market car has retained value on the used market as well as the Model 3.

 

[insaneoctane]

TSLA will outperform them all over the long run.

When SpaceX solves Mars transport, billionaires will not want to live in a more inhospitable climate than the summit of Everest. Yes, some will pay big bucks and dedicate a year of their life to put another feather in their cap (visited Mars) but it is not, at it's essence, a very profitable endeavor. Starlink will not IPO until it is already highly valued. It might do well but not as well as Tesla. The IPO of Starlink will probably comprise the bulk of SpaceX appreciation and this is not very accessible to most of us mere mortals.

Even a relatively poor person can benefit from being able to drive to work in a fun, reliable and inexpensive to operate $25,000 car and this is a huge market (along with the associated value of having a huge installed base of Tesla owners who can buy upgrades, insurance and who knows what else). Then there is the mid-tier and mid-upper tier cars which is also huge. Don't forget the potentially most valuable Tesla market of all: energy. And let's not even talk about self-driving taxis. Tesla has so much growth left in markets with high margins it's not even a good comparison to satellite data and Mars transport.

Basically, Tesla addresses a huge portion of what millions of people need while SpaceX addresses what a few billionaires will be willing to fund and satellite data will not be as valuable as the huge markets Tesla addresses with transport and energy. I'm less clear on the potential future value of The Boring Co. but intuitively I don't see how it could match TSLA. I suppose if it IPO'ed soon enough and at a low enough price, it could be awesome but the ultimate market is not as big of an opportunity as those being addressed by Tesla.

Is everyone forgetting the earth based BFR that is supposed to make international travel via space fast and affordable? Seems like that play has some percentage of the airline market?

 

[WarpedOne]

Is everyone forgetting the earth based BFR that is supposed to make international travel via space fast and affordable? Seems like that play has some percentage of the airline market?

Those BFRs will need to take off and land some tens of miles into the see. One can use a fleet of speed-boats or build a dedicated under-the-see-tunnels for suitable vehicles to quickly and reliably transport people and cargo to and from those rockets.
Now, if only there was such a company that could build such tunnels fast and cheap and some other to build suitable vehicles.

Rockefeller has nothing on Musk ... in 100 years Musk will be known as the man after Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Pre-Market High(s):

$450.45 (04:13:24 AM)
$452.04 (04:28:04 AM)​

 

[UkNorthampton]

TSLA will outperform them all over the long run.

When SpaceX solves Mars transport, billionaires will not want to live in a more inhospitable climate than the summit of Everest. Yes, some will pay big bucks and dedicate a year of their life to put another feather in their cap (visited Mars) but it is not, at it's essence, a very profitable endeavor. Starlink will not IPO until it is already highly valued. It might do well but not as well as Tesla. The IPO of Starlink will probably comprise the bulk of SpaceX appreciation and this is not very accessible to most of us mere mortals.

Even a relatively poor person can benefit from being able to drive to work in a fun, reliable and inexpensive to operate $25,000 car and this is a huge market (along with the associated value of having a huge installed base of Tesla owners who can buy upgrades, insurance and who knows what else). Then there is the mid-tier and mid-upper tier cars which is also huge. Don't forget the potentially most valuable Tesla market of all: energy. And let's not even talk about self-driving taxis. Tesla has so much growth left in markets with high margins it's not even a good comparison to satellite data and Mars transport.

Basically, Tesla addresses a huge portion of what millions of people need while SpaceX addresses what a few billionaires will be willing to fund and satellite data will not be as valuable as the huge markets Tesla addresses with transport and energy. I'm less clear on the potential future value of The Boring Co. but intuitively I don't see how it could match TSLA. I suppose if it IPO'ed soon enough and at a low enough price, it could be awesome but the ultimate market is not as big of an opportunity as those being addressed by Tesla.

Boring company intrigues me. The UK is congested and long journeys are rare compared to other countries, but average speeds can be low.

Either congestion or long distances makes tunnels useful, especially with automated driving (much easier as few deer or people in the tunnels).

The way to make money is for The Boring Company to make them for free (solving transport authority problems) and charge tolls. Time is money after all.

Tesla also wins due to additional sales and potentially infotainment services. Only EVs with certified automated driving would be allowed.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Demand is always there, for any car, at the right price. I'm addressing the percent of value retained. So far, no other mass market car has retained value on the used market as well as the Model 3.

In the UK, I believe used EV prices (in general) were rising faster than time/depreciation on ICE has led us to expect. So buy an old Zoe (60-80 mile range) for £6000 and next year it's worth £6300 or something (conjecture/example).

Last year:
The used electric cars going UP in value - CarGurus Blog (UK)
Pure electric vehicles buck the trend as used prices stall – Car Dealer Magazine

This month:
Used car prices for electric and hybrid cars are falling as supply outweighs demand – Car Dealer Magazine - suggests used EV prices down, used ICE up. I can imagine that used ICE bought in preference to new ICE. The used EV prices may reflect the fact that asking prices for Model 3 was high a year ago, because you couldn't easily get new ones! I'm not convinced by this article at all.

 

[Tslynk67]

A walk down ahead of pre-market opening, who woulda thunk it?

 

[SarahsDad]

Just heard about Arrival, a London startup building EV vans and buses. Lots of private investing. On the local radio this AM announcing a Rock Hill SC factory. Not a direct Tesla competitor but looks a lot more legit than Nikola for instance. Worth keeping an eye on if they ever IPO.

Arrival bringing electric vehicle factory to South Carolina | wcnc.com

WSJ News Exclusive | BlackRock Bets on Electric-Vehicle Startup Arrival With $118 Million Investment

 

[JBRR]

Target Px increased to 450 USD by Goldman Sachs

 

[Cape Coddess]

Just heard about Arrival, a London startup building EV vans and buses. Lots of private investing. On the local radio this AM announcing a Rock Hill SC factory. Not a direct Tesla competitor but looks a lot more legit than Nikola for instance. Worth keeping an eye on if they ever IPO.

Arrival bringing electric vehicle factory to South Carolina | wcnc.com

WSJ News Exclusive | BlackRock Bets on Electric-Vehicle Startup Arrival With $118 Million Investment

It's a shame that the US is so far behind in this area but at least it's starting to catch up. Here's another (older) article about electric buses:
China dominates the electric bus market, but the US is getting on board

Wonder if Tesla will ever get into that market? Or do they even need to?

 

[AudubonB]

Was that Goldman’s 6-month or 6-hr target?

 

[X Fan]

Fred reporting Model X Range is now up to 371 miles.

That’s a huge leap forward....now if they would only fix that too forward neck killing new seat I would purchase another one.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just came back from the cabin in Algonquin Park. The non-stop 3 1/2 hr trip of 250 miles was a pleasure with our family of five, and room to spare in cabin space and storage. With 325 miles range on our LR Model 3, there was no range anxiety.

And no worries to needing to stop to fill up on the way back, as the standard EV power cord to a 110v outlet charged at 5 miles per hour (120 miles/day). After owning our Model 3 for over two years and 13,000 miles we still use a standard 110v outlet in our garage. There is no need for us to upgrade to a 240v, although we would consider doing when our 2nd Tesla arrives.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Stanford University organizes this Friday a symposium about "Sustainable Supply Chain for Batteries" from 7:00-9:00am Pacific Time (14:00-16:00 GMT)

Guest are JB Straubel, Celina Mikolajczak (Panasonic North America) and Heiko Urtel (BASF).

There will be a live stream and registration is free and open for all under following link:
StorageX Initiative | Energy

 

[ZachF]

the points about the impact on ICE OEMs economies of scale and 3 shifts were eye opening ... I realized innovators dilemma but only in concept... Munro in this video makes it real .. unfortunately for OEMs it is too late for them to convert to BEV... only one with a shot as Munro points out is probably VW and I only give them a 50% shot

It is a point that very few people understand.

People think that "The Big Boys" will be able to easily swoop in using their huge ICE resources... the problem is, that after a certain point in the tech transition, their "resources" become a drag, and a larger and larger drag at that. If they wait too long, they end up needed to fund EV development while their bread-and-butter ICE business is losing money hand over fist.

This is why a major tech shake-up often re-orders the playing field of producers. The world's largest phone manufacturers changed completely when cell phones became the primary phone technology, then it changed again completely when Smartphones came.

 

[Unpilot]

So 450 this week...and new all time high next week after earnings.

Damn it feels good to be a gangster.

 

[kanweg]

A walk down ahead of pre-market opening, who woulda thunk it?

I predicted you would say that!
Now, how do I make money off that?