-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They have a youtube channel. Current video is not there yet. Last one was published 2 weeks after it happened.
https://www.youtube.com/user/PrecourtInstitute
Yeah, that's incompatible with reality.
Tesla R&D over the past 4 quarters: $1.3B, say $1B for AP (even though Elon said basically all R&D is AP)
4x is then $4B a year... GM didn't even make a profit in Q2.
Unless they implying Tesla's AP R&D spend is going to plummet due to Dojo/ Operation Vacation.
Prima facie evidence that M3 produced for export to LHD markets is happening now:
Last edited by a moderator:
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Ok somewhat OT but relevant.
Ford is offering lump sum buyouts for ex employee pensions. We have to Nov 12 to decide. It's relatively small pension as I worked there 10 years, but left almost 20 years ago. The benefit at age 65 is fixed when you leave. I decided to take the lump sum into an IRA for 2 reasons.
-I don't know they will be around in 10 years and don't want to have to deal with any issues if they go to bankrupt.
-More funds to by TSLA.
I have mentioned a few times before, if I had not worked for Ford, not sure I would be invested in TSLA. My opinion is the OEM's do very little engineering and most of what little innovation is there comes from suppliers. The transition will be difficult if not impossible if they do not vertically integrate. Vertical integration is totally against the industry paradigm which they have been ingrained.
Ford is offering lump sum buyouts for ex employee pensions. We have to Nov 12 to decide. It's relatively small pension as I worked there 10 years, but left almost 20 years ago. The benefit at age 65 is fixed when you leave. I decided to take the lump sum into an IRA for 2 reasons.
-I don't know they will be around in 10 years and don't want to have to deal with any issues if they go to bankrupt.
-More funds to by TSLA.
I have mentioned a few times before, if I had not worked for Ford, not sure I would be invested in TSLA. My opinion is the OEM's do very little engineering and most of what little innovation is there comes from suppliers. The transition will be difficult if not impossible if they do not vertically integrate. Vertical integration is totally against the industry paradigm which they have been ingrained.
Does anyone familiar with acquisitions know whether this would be a move that a company takes when it wants to be bought? (Reasoning: I can imagine that a company is more interesting for a buyer if it doesn’t come with hughe financial obligations.)
But Stretch2727 can probably get a better return on investment than ford’s pension fund (I take it they wouldn’t invest in Tesla).
Last edited:
Mo City
Active Member
Four years ago, an ex-employer offered the same to me and it became my first investment in TSLA. It was most definitely not a desperate financial move for them.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I think it is a move that lessens future uncertainty for the company/pension. These are defined benefit plans that have to pay fixed benefits at certain ages. They have investments behind them but the payouts are fixed and do not change based on the pension investment return. According to the actuary reports the Ford pension is underfunded but this can vary widely based on how the stock market does.
Most companies in the US have moved away from these type of plans to defined contributions (401K, etc ) where the participants do the investment elections and the company and employee do the contributions. The contributions are paid in real time and the risk (current and future) is minimal for the company.
Yes, I will do better investing myself even if I only get a modest return.
?? Enterprise Values already incorporate cash position.
Not sure if this has been posted:
SR+ RHD in Australia & UK have a delivery timeline of November 2020. Australia also got a range increase + $7k price reduction + power trunk
For wrong side EU drivers, it’s February 2021 for SR+ and November 2020 for LR.
So reading between the lines, It seems SR+ to EU, AU, HK, NZ etc will be Made In China LFP
And from now on, all Made In Fremont SR+ with Li ion cells will be only for the North American market
The vehicles at Giga Shanghai that have protective layers over the front and sides are getting priority loading onto the transporters.
The protection would suggest longer range shipping.
Last evening Elon tweeted that he had neck bone surgeries. Although not stated, the year of the surgeries is likely 2019 when the scar was first noticed. His tweets seen below should clarify the situation, and calm the rumors spread after people became concerned about the scar on his neck.
Last edited:
This is great for us. Since this means, there is still a massive opportunity for us an investor. Great success
I believe the variance we are seeing in the features and ranges across the different models and trims is the result of large scale manufacturing difficulties and risk management. Tesla has a bunch of improvements, but they're selectively choosing only a subset of the improvements to be added to only certain models. There are multiple advantages of doing it this way. Let's take the 5% battery energy density improvement for example. Tesla is at volume production now. Switching to a new battery cannot happen overnight. It has to ramp up. The machines have to stop, make changes, then get back online. Tesla cannot stop all machines to make changes all at the same time since that'll stop production. Therefore, only a subset of the machines can be updated at one time, and therefore those machines cannot provide all models with the same battery, only certain models. I bet the new cells are only going into the M3 LR AWD and S Performance only right now, as it has the biggest gain, and it is befitting of the name "Long Range". That's likely why the Model S LR had no range increase as it is still using batteries from the old lines, but the performance has the new batteries from the new updated lines.
There is also the risk management side. Adding a ton of changes at once is risky. Again, Tesla is at volume manufacturing now, so the risk is much bigger now. So it makes sense to spread them out, either over time, or over different models. Then when all of those improvements are proven to work well, then it makes sense to move towards integrating all improvements to all models. We can see Tesla already using this risk management strategy with Giga Berlin having the latest tech (most risk, low volume, slow ramp), and China, Texas and Fremont on the old tech (low risk, fast ramp, maintain high volume). Once Berlin tech is proven, it gets updated to all factories. We're seeing this on the small scale right now with tons of feature changes right now.
Give it a few months for manufacturing to catch up, and all improvements should appear on all models, and the variance will no longer be there.
There is also the risk management side. Adding a ton of changes at once is risky. Again, Tesla is at volume manufacturing now, so the risk is much bigger now. So it makes sense to spread them out, either over time, or over different models. Then when all of those improvements are proven to work well, then it makes sense to move towards integrating all improvements to all models. We can see Tesla already using this risk management strategy with Giga Berlin having the latest tech (most risk, low volume, slow ramp), and China, Texas and Fremont on the old tech (low risk, fast ramp, maintain high volume). Once Berlin tech is proven, it gets updated to all factories. We're seeing this on the small scale right now with tons of feature changes right now.
Give it a few months for manufacturing to catch up, and all improvements should appear on all models, and the variance will no longer be there.
Last edited:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Elon, who tends to be pretty optimistic in his timelines, thinks we MIGHT get to 30 million new EVs sold per year by 2030 (by everyone, not just Tesla).
In recent years annual new car sales are north of 80 million a year.
Leaving over 50 million new ICE vehicles a year, 10 years from now, someone will still need to be producing.
It's certainly possible GM won't be among those doing it, but I think the speed with which some folks think ICE manufacturing is going away entirely does not match with what's possible under even the most optimistic timelines of ramping of worldwide battery production (and needed infrastructure improvements especially in less developed countries)-
And as we have seen, nobody other than Tesla appears to be acting in a way that would bring about even THAT optimistic of a scenario (30 out of 80 million a year new cars being EVs by 2030)
Yeah but the cash is buried. It would be nice for people to see Tesla has lower debt and more cash. I'm sure there's still a lot of people, maybe most people, who think Ford, GM, Toyota and all the rest can out do Tesla in EV whenever they want to.
The average person doesn't understand that Tesla has already won. It's like watching two Grandmasters playing chess. I can be watching and think the match looks close. Another grandmaster could drop by, look at the board, and say games over, 13 more moves and it's done. I'd like more people to see that Tesla has won.
Thanks again for your awesome work.
Has there been any change in Tesla's business that might influence you to revise your SP chart? Of course, there's macro change with interest rates at near zero. Thus higher multiple than what you had in that chart.
As it is today, the SP is above your SP estimation post Q2-2020 ER.
I am of the view that shares are right now priced to perfection.
Only a very significant beat over consensus will likely give a >5% bump to SP post ER.
The only catalysts I see pushing SP higher is Q4 ER, or S&P inclusion anytime from now.
Perhaps S&P inclusion prospects is still providing strong support from going down further than it ever did in the last several weeks.
Any thoughts?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That is not remotely what he said. It was:
Basically implying exponential growth turns the whole market over somewhere between 2026 and 2030.
30M in 2027
40M in 2028
60M in 2029
Etc.....
Mo City
Active Member
It's still only 2020. I think it's very likely non-Tesla global annual production of EVs is 10 million by 2030.
10 years is a very long time.
Even supposing this were true (see The TalkingMule's response)... I have to think the infrastructure changes are going to start kicking in by the time there are 30 million EVs on the road. Even though that's a small fraction of the existing fleet, gas stations were barely profitable to begin with (all the ones around here have added sandwich or donut shops to try to make money). Dealerships will have to start weaning themselves off ICE maintenance and repairs... somehow? Highway taxes are going to need to be rethought. Not to mention, a Tesla 5+ years from now and fuel efficiency requirements 5+ years from now are together going to leave ICE cars looking a lot less competitive (they're going to what, have more turbochargers than cylinders and shut down the engine every time you coast?).
Put all that together, I think it's going to start feeling like ICE is staring down a tsunami.
So whatever year EVs hit 30M, maybe there will still be 50M ICE cars sold, but what are they going to be? Will they continue to try to undercut Tesla on price, even if that means under $20K (considering a $25K EV with cost of ownership advantages)? Will they try to outclass Tesla (and perhaps Lucid) at the high end on luxury? (Too niche.) Will they be stupendous diesel models so they still have better towing range? Maybe all the biggest cars, Suburbans and Minivans, will stay ICE where an EV still can't be efficient enough in that form factor. I don't know, but I don't see the 50M being the meaty middle of the market. If they lose pickups, what large and profitable segments are left other than big SUVs?
When 30M EVs are sold, isn't everyone buying an ICE by then going to grit their teeth and bear it, not hold their head up with pride?
Aren't the OEMs going to be doing the math... collectively we sold 50M ICE this year... from the EV factories ramping around us and the demand we're seeing in the market, looks like that will be 35M ICE next year and 15M ICE the year after... um, I'll take that golden parachute now please?
Please excuse my layman's understanding of the above abbreviated earnings doc. What were the profits without BEV credits? Seems like that is what everyone poo poo'd us (yes those are real words) on last time. I thought they said we wouldn't have had a profit without seeing credits.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
