Certainly I'd expect stuff like interstate exits consolidating to 1 or 2 gas stations instead of 8 or 10...
But as you point out, EVs will still be a tiny fraction of TOTAL cars on the road at that point.
Let's consider just the US for a second... ~18 million new sales a year... but a fleet of ~280 million vehicles.
So you're talking 15.5 years to turn over the whole fleet on average, and that's if -100 percent- of new car sales were EVs ever year for 15.5 years.
In 2020 they're estimated to be what 3% maybe?
Sure, but this is how the disruption thing manifests. Right now, in my little suburb, there are at least 20 gas stations within ~10 minutes of me. Wherever you are, north, south, east, or west of my house, there's gas a moment away. You can pick the station that's super-close but expensive because it's not on a main road. You can pick the one with better breakfast sandwiches, or the one with Syrian food, or the one with cheapest propane exchange, or whatever.
So let's take 3% of the consumers away, because they bought EVs. Maybe a couple stations on the edge get desperate, or close. Food and propane is safe, but the impulse purchases just dropped. The ones with a 10'x10' convenience area and a cashier behind 1" plexiglass maybe have to raise prices substantially or go under, but the ones with expansive deli counters are safe. Now it's not quite so convenient for some people to get gas -- maybe they have to go 5 minutes out of their way or pay more.
Then take 5% of the consumers away.
I don't think you have to go very far before half the gas stations close. As an owner, why do you want to be in a market with 20 options to service a declining number of customers? If your convenience revenue drops, you have to raise gas prices, and then people will happily go 5 minutes out of their way to the "Super WaWa" (it's a Northeast US thing) with better food AND cheaper gas.
So who cares if there are only 10 convenient stations instead of 20? Well, there are already occasionally waiting lines for gas at the Super WaWa. Not much, one car waiting per pump at peak times. But take half the competition away, and then what? Now lines are bigger. They don't have a big enough lot for 3 cars waiting per pump. There could be overflow onto the main road, like there sometimes is for the big/cheap Car Wash line after bad weather.
It's not like everyone loved filling up with gas before. Now you have to wait extra long, or pay 10 cents more per gallon. It's not a lot, but it's galling to have to pay more just because you don't have the time or patience to wait at the good station. Plus, wherever you go for a shorter line, the food isn't as good. Even at the Super WaWa, if you shop while you fill the tank and don't get back by the time it finishes, you may take some crap from the 3 people waiting for your pump. Who needs to go through all of this only to be abused by strangers too?
So sure, it won't hurt much if the highway stops have 1-2 stations instead of 3-5. But I don't think that's where the ICE pain will be.
Goes back a bit to who is supplying the other 10 million EVs.... If Ford manages to get a successful, profitable, electric F-150 out there they can probably still keep kicking out $15,000 fiestas to undercut 25k EVs too.
If GM has a successful and profitable EV Hummer maybe they can do the same.
Maybe... except the US OEMs can't bail out of the small-car market fast enough. It's not good for them to subsidize small-car losses with pickup profits, and small cars aren't going to be getting more profitable if they need higher efficiency and better tech and all the rest. The OEMs will just dump the small cars and stick with the pickup profits, maybe offset by a handful of compliance EVs as usual. Or they'll make their stand on large SUV profits, if EV pickups turn out to be a thing.
Every time we drive substantially west, we go past that monstrous abandoned Cruze factory. I mean, it's supposed to be the Lordstown Motors EV factory now, but the last time we went by there were still Cruze signs. It's kind of sad, really -- you can tell from the massive, colorful signs out front, on the side of the building, and everywhere how proud of that factory the town and the company both were. And now it's dead and gone... and those signs are the gravestone for US small car manufacturing.
