FWIW a lot of people overstate just how quickly that transition happened... often with the famous "parade in NYC" pictures showing on a decade or so from "only 1 car in the parade" to "majority cars in the parade"
This ignores a ton of relevant data... like the fact 20 years later horses still numbered in the tens of thousands in NYC, and that OUTSIDE of dense urban cities horses remain the majority for ~30 years past the "mostly cars" parade picture.
(and that hell, in many underdeveloped places, horses are STILL actively and commonly used for transport)
He also thinks in that video that peaker power plants will be obsolete by 2020 (which is now, and he's wrong- there's still like 1000 of em active in the US alone-- for the same reason he's wrong ICE will be replaced by EVs by 2025- it is literally impossible to produce enough batteries to make either prediction true)
He also uses the same, flawed, NYC example I just discussed.
His general conclusions are spot on- some of his timelines are.... very overly optimistic.
Tony uses the example of the transition from the horse to the car as that is the best example we have.
But if we think about it cars needed, roads, gas stations, parking lots, mechanics, oil refineries, etc.
Not surprisingly the car infrastructure was easier to ramp in the cities...
In contrast horses ate grass and there was plenty of cheap or free grass in the countryside.
While fuel was cheap, horses were limited in range and comfort, reliability could be suspect and maintenance was expensive.
EVs can use the same roads and parking lots, aside from the need for more charging stops EVs are not limited in range, comfort is equal or superior, infrastructure still takes time but can be way faster, home fuel is an option.
EV reliability will be higher, maintenance costs are lower, fuel costs are lower, once they reach purchase price parity from a point of view of TCO EVs come out way ahead. Regardless, of supply, the point when the majority of the population understand this point more or less settles demand.
Overall the big economic question is not so much how many cars of each type are owned but how many miles are driven, It will not take much to tank new ICE car sales, and substantially reduce miles driven.
High mileage cars like taxis and hire cars will be early adopters, because the savings are more substantial, TaaS is an additional factor. All 3 combining to increase awareness. I'm sure statistics will show newer cars typically drive more miles than older cars, most families take their newest car on a long trip.
Sure in the country side some who cant afford an EV, even a 2nd hand EV, can't charge at home, don't have solar and will keep the old ICE running a bit longer than a city dweller who can just elect to use TaaS. Fewer people live in the countryside, the real question is if the locals plus any ICE driving visitors are sufficient to keep the local gas station open.
Battery Day had some of the answers on battery supplies and the threats to peaker plants are multipronged, there are a number of competitive generation and storage technologies.
But overall I agree Tony is like Elon, his conclusions are spot on, but his timelines can be optimistic, in the long run conclusions matter more than the timelines, there are ways of speeding up the timelines.
Sometimes a timeline acceleration happens because a disrupted technology reaches a point where it becomes unviable and collapses early. Those early collapses can be sudden and hard to predict, one week the doors don't open on Monday, the bank will not extend a loan, or they have to close the factory because products are not selling.
Sure a handful of old cars can keep running long after the factory closes.... may they get parts from wrecked vehicles, maybe some parts are custom made, but this isn't the mainstream.
