Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Hello...Newman.

Yup, and I thought he was George Castanza there for a moment. It's been a while?

 

[Sofie]

Kind of fun watching this when I know I got my shares real cheap back in the “day”. Lol...great lunchtime entertainment

 

[Causalien]

I kind of like the fact that it's pretty quiet and we don't get a flood of ppl crying "Moon $7000".
For once, I also don't see TSLA on /r/wallstreetbets

Maybe many of you have found another outlet for your gambling addiction like I did. Mushrooms are my new roller coaster ride.

 

[lafrisbee]

"MOON 7000!!!!!!!"

 

[T@oo]

Planning to not look at TSLA anymore until after earnings. Got chips, booze, chocolate and four remaining seasons of Lucifer to get me through. Wish me luck.

 

[viridi]

Nothing noteworthy - really just old fashioned watching the tape very, very carefully (with the help of modern day technology, of course).

And, keep in mind, these are not "trades" - they never get executed as they get pulled.

 

[Favguy]

"SPACE 1999!"

Just for the older UK guys

 

[Tslynk67]

Retail EPS seems to be around 0.78 to 0.88 as far as I can see, versus the updated FactSet of 0.77 - going to be tight and although will clearly be record numbers all over, looks like a "beat" in the same way as the P&D was a "beat".

Really don't know how to call this...

 

[EVMeister]

Planning to not look at TSLA anymore until after earnings. Got chips, booze, chocolate and four remaining seasons of Lucifer to get me through. Wish me luck.

Who are you kidding? You'll be on a chocolate and booze high in no time and will slip back into your old ways.

 

[Mike Smith]

There isn't going to be a bumper recall.

NHTSA doesn't care about the quality of cars or whether something needs to be repaired, they only care about safety. The odds of a bumper falling off and injuring someone is extremely low, therefore there will be no recall.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Things are heating up a bit in stimulus talks. McConnell now claiming he would put a brokered deal between WH/House to a vote on the Senate floor, leaving open the possibility that it could pass the Senate. Still work to be done between Mnuchin/Pelosi to reach common ground on a conceptual framework, so we’re not there yet.

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1318619459431682053?s=21

 

[Robocop]

Rob M has his 3rd quarter estimates on Patreon but not yet on YouTube.

He included a request not to share.

Does the $5 reward level include early access to videos? Unclear from description there. I sub to Now You Know currently.

 

[Fred42]

Does the $5 reward level include early access to videos? Unclear from description there. I sub to Now You Know currently.

Rob gave patrons early access to his 3rd quarter earnings SS, including people at the $5 level. I don't know about his daily videos. I have just watched them when they appear on YouTube.

Edit: I just looked at his Patreon postings. The answer is 'no' on his daily videos.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Retail EPS seems to be around 0.78 to 0.88 as far as I can see, versus the updated FactSet of 0.77 - going to be tight and although will clearly be record numbers all over, looks like a "beat" in the same way as the P&D was a "beat".

Really don't know how to call this...

If it sells off....we know the next run up will be huge....it'll be like groundhogs day.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Record earnings on 30% revenue growth.
Stimulus looking like 50/50.
Potential for S&P inclusion announcement.
All in an 8 day window!

Blue wave in 2 weeks looking like 50/50.

Cheer up!

 

[StealthP3D]

Never heard of him before. In any case, there's almost nothing we can deduct from these tweets wrt the capability of the rewrite, even if this is genuine. I would recommend waiting a day or two for youtube videos to show up. Then we can judge for ourselves how good the new software is.

I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.

First, a little background: I test AP regularly in my Model 3 on an undivided mountain highway (SR 542 east of Glacier, WA) that is marked 50 mph but has a lot of corners that would have 35 mph signs if marked. The turns are very blind with inconsistent radii and a lot of elevation changes. It's the kind of road that expert drivers love and timid drivers have a certain amount of trepidation while driving it due to inconsistent and often sharp curves, poor sightlines, lack of wide shoulders, large trees and boulders immediately adjacent to the lane markings and the somewhat narrow width (for a State highway). Fortunately, it often has zero traffic on it or I wouldn't be activating AP on it.

Before this recent update (2020.40.4) I had not noticed any improvement in AP behavior in this environment for a long time, perhaps around a year, and had become resigned that Tesla was putting all resources into the re-write and I wouldn't see any improvement until the major rewrite was available. I had Version 3 of the FSD computer installed by Tesla service back in June and, of course, behavior did not change at all. While it could almost always drive the road without intervention, it would take amateur lines around the corners and have inconsistent speed changes that were unsettling, most often approaching corners at a high speed and then suddenly applying the brakes rather forcefully right before a corner and finishing the corner at too low of a speed and taking too long to re-establish the speed even with a clear view down the road. While it was impressive that it could do it at all, it was not comforting or reassuring, particularly the odd positioning of the vehicle in the lane at times and the erratic speed changes.

Until the recent update. Last night after dark I took her for a spin and the difference was surprising! Most of the unsettling behavior was completely absent. This was not an improvement that can be well quantified (ie. ability to recognize stop signs or to navigate a roundabout) but it was like going from a 12 year old driver's first drive to a somewhat experienced driver who seemed like they knew what they were doing. The road was wet and had a lot of leaves scattered about and there was a light mist, not enough to hinder sight significantly, and it was pitch black, with only the light from my headlights to light the road. I set AP to 48 mph which was an appropriate cruising speed for a human driver in the same conditions except for some slowing on sharper corners. The lane positioning was improved and the lines around the corners were smoother and more consistent and the car would slow for corners much more appropriately, I was actually blown away! It would take the wider corners at the set speed and only slow down for the sharper corners. The most noticeable improvements were two things; more natural lines through the corners and more natural speed changes entering and leaving corners (better speed management overall).

I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!

 

[StealthP3D]

Blue wave in 2 weeks looking like 50/50.

Cheer up!

Anyone who thinks knowing the outcome of the election can better help them predict future share prices should probably read this:

Opinion: ‘Trump stocks’ have significantly lagged the U.S. market since 2016 — while ‘Clinton stocks’ have soared

While elections can temporarily disrupt markets, their effect is not predictable in any manner that matters for a typical investor (investment decisions should not consider potential election outcomes).

 

[ZeApelido]

I don't now if this is related to the re-write or not but I've noticed some interesting improvements that just showed in one of my two last updates even though the release notes did not purport to include any new features. I'm sharing this here because I think it's relevant to investors, at least in a general way.

First, a little background: I test AP regularly in my Model 3 on an undivided mountain highway (SR 542 east of Glacier, WA) that is marked 50 mph but has a lot of corners that would have 35 mph signs if marked. The turns are very blind with inconsistent radii and a lot of elevation changes. It's the kind of road that expert drivers love and timid drivers have a certain amount of trepidation while driving it due to inconsistent and often sharp curves, poor sightlines, lack of wide shoulders, large trees and boulders immediately adjacent to the lane markings and the somewhat narrow width (for a State highway). Fortunately, it often has zero traffic on it or I wouldn't be activating AP on it.

Before this recent update (2020.40.4) I had not noticed any improvement in AP behavior in this environment for a long time, perhaps around a year, and had become resigned that Tesla was putting all resources into the re-write and I wouldn't see any improvement until the major rewrite was available. I had Version 3 of the FSD computer installed by Tesla service back in June and, of course, behavior did not change at all. While it could almost always drive the road without intervention, it would take amateur lines around the corners and have inconsistent speed changes that were unsettling, most often approaching corners at a high speed and then suddenly applying the brakes rather forcefully right before a corner and finishing the corner at too low of a speed and taking too long to re-establish the speed even with a clear view down the road. While it was impressive that it could do it at all, it was not comforting or reassuring, particularly the odd positioning of the vehicle in the lane at times and the erratic speed changes.

Until the recent update. Last night after dark I took her for a spin and the difference was surprising! Most of the unsettling behavior was completely absent. This was not an improvement that can be well quantified (ie. ability to recognize stop signs or to navigate a roundabout) but it was like going from a 12 year old driver's first drive to a somewhat experienced driver who seemed like they knew what they were doing. The road was wet and had a lot of leaves scattered about and there was a light mist, not enough to hinder sight significantly, and it was pitch black, with only the light from my headlights to light the road. I set AP to 48 mph which was an appropriate cruising speed for a human driver in the same conditions except for some slowing on sharper corners. The lane positioning was improved and the lines around the corners were smoother and more consistent and the car would slow for corners much more appropriately, I was actually blown away! It would take the wider corners at the set speed and only slow down for the sharper corners. The most noticeable improvements were two things; more natural lines through the corners and more natural speed changes entering and leaving corners (better speed management overall).

I'm not sure why it would improve like this before the major re-write but I suspect the rewrite uses building blocks built-into current versions so it makes sense to continue developing these on the side so they can incorporate them as the re-write is being perfected. This update is one that makes me think FSD will happen sooner rather than later. I'm eagerly anticipating the full rewrite now!

I now see how retired people spend their time.

 

[ZeApelido]

Definitely seems like the FSD rewrite beta update has indeed gone out to some people.

Did you get the FSD beta update yet???

 

[AimStellar]

Wow... 500 TSLA shares (5 lots of 100 shares) purchased non-margin throughout the day ranging from $419.20-$421.90. Little bit surprised, should I be? And should I be nervous? As to the second question, I'm not, as I wouldn't have bought the shares otherwise.

Edit: Just kidding...I'm human, and of course I'm nervous.